How to find value bets (value bets). Value betting strategy

Value Betting

Today I want to help you deal with one of these terms - "value" bets or, in the original, value betting, which is used in modern bookmakers on the Internet. In numerous forums, the word "value" in various forms occurs quite often. Many users use the term value betting without fully understanding what they are talking about, which introduces more confusion to beginners. In this article, I will try not only to explain what “value” is and what rates are “value”, but also to tell you how you can use these rates to make a profit.

What are "value" bets?

The English term value betting does not have a literary translation into Russian. The closest thing to describe this term is the phrase “value bets”, in other words, value betting is betting on events with overestimated odds. The essence of these bets is to search for underestimated events in the bookmaker’s line, for which bookmakers offer overpriced odds for any reason. Generally speaking, the very procedure for determining unfair coefficients is very problematic and requires a certain level of skill. In order to understand that the coefficient is really too high, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the pre-match handouts, including injuries, weather, and the motivation of opponents.

How to determine the "value" rate?

After spending detailed analysis, we must decide on the probability that we are willing to allocate to this event. Having calculated for yourself the probability as a percentage, translate it into a coefficient using the formula: kef. = 1 / probability. In this case, the probability must be presented in decimal expression. Compare the resulting odds with the bookmaker's odds. If your coefficient turned out to be higher, and you are sure that your assessment is correct, you can safely place a bet.

In the literature, however, a slightly different representation of the same formula is used to determine the “value” of the bet: kef. * probability > 1. This is exactly what the traditional condition of the "value" of the bet looks like. To avoid mistakes, let me remind you that in our case, the probability is measured within 0 to 1 and is presented in fractional representation, for example, 0.32 corresponds to a probability of 32%. Let's check the above formula for correctness. So, for example, we consider a coefficient of 5.0 to be too high. After analyzing the statistics and pre-match layouts, as well as relying on personal experience, we consider that the objective probability of the event occurring is 25%, that is, 0.25 in decimal representation. The "valuability" of the rate is noticeable to the naked eye, but we still apply our formula: 5 * 0.25 = 1.25, which is clearly more than one, and, therefore, we have a rate with high level"valuability".

Most often, just large coefficients turn out to be overestimated, which is quite easily explained. Often, there is a strong “load” on the favorites of the fight, which is why the odds for them are deliberately underestimated by the bookmakers themselves. Finding a value ratio below 2.0 is extremely difficult. But it is much easier among odds exceeding 2.5, where “value” bets are not a rarity.

The main disadvantage of value betting is the fact that you will start to receive a good average profit from your activity only after a large number of "value" bets. This is easily explained in terms of statistics: the larger the statistical sample, the closer the arithmetic mean of the indicator to the mathematical expectation, that is, the more it is averaged. Thus, you can get the expected percentage profit only by making at least 500 bets.

The role of psychology in value betting

From a psychological point of view, the process of getting used to betting on large odds is difficult. Most players are afraid to bet on large odds because they win less often than small odds. At the same time, no one thinks about which coefficient is fair and which is not. Everyone is only interested in taking as little risk as possible.

It is important to understand that you absolutely do not care if the coefficient is 1.2 or 12.0, the main thing is that it be “value”. However, it just so happened, due to objective reasons, that among the large coefficients there are much more "value" ones, which means that you will have to work with them. The level of the odds does not matter, because you are playing a long-term game, the profit in which is the percentage deviation of the bookmaker's odds from the real probability.

Novice players often do not pay attention to understated quotes in the tennis betting line. Having a minimum margin, bookmakers beat bettors by long distance. A small difference in the margin greatly affects the increase in the game bank and the bettor's income over the course of time.

Today we will consider a special way to search for inflated quotes from bookmakers.

Fast passage

How to find overpriced odds in tennis

For example, consider a standard tennis match consisting of three sets. The bookmaker rated the victory of the first tennis player at 2.1, and the exact score was rated at 4.5. Of course, a bettor can make two equal bets on the exact score, which in the end will give a slight plus. For example, if the initial bet amount was 1,000, then you can split 1,000 into two equal parts and bet on the exact score, namely 500 at 2:0 and 500 at 2:1. Of course, the only condition is the victory of the chosen tennis player. As a result, if you win, one of the two bets will win and the winnings will be 2.250. And if you initially take a clear victory for 2.1, then the profit would be 2.100. The difference of 150 played a key role.

We take into account that one bookmaker will not allow such a mistake, so it is worth looking for the necessary quotes in other bookmakers. For example, in the first bookmaker's office, the exact score of 2:0 is estimated by analysts at 5, and in the second, 2:1 for 4.5. It would seem that there is a small difference of 0.5, however, in reality, a small difference in the odds will play a major role, which will affect the increase in the game bank over the course. A bettor can carry out similar actions with the search for coefficients on the net profit of a tennis player. For example, a bettor is confident in the victory of a particular tennis player, but a net victory is estimated at 1.5. To find a suitable coefficient, we look at the lines in other bookmakers. Even a small difference of 0.1 - 0.2 at a distance will give significant results, especially if the amount of the bet is significant.

Stages of searching for inflated quotes for a match

To find an overestimated coefficient, we adhere to the following plan:

1. The first step is to select the appropriate event. Often, before the start of the confrontation, the odds fall heavily on the tennis player’s victory, which makes it possible to play the “fork” strategy, namely, to make two opposite bets in order to get a 100% profit. Of course, such actions, the office immediately stops in the bud and blocks the player's account, so we will focus solely on the search. The first thing that is important to look at is which tennis player is betting on the most. Often, it is the chosen tennis player who is the favorite of the meeting, which complicates the task, since quotes instantly fall and it is difficult to find an overestimated coefficient. In this case, you need to select matches the day before the start of the meeting. Often, it is on the day of the match that quotes go down and misses the chance to catch an overestimated odds for the upcoming match. After choosing a suitable event, proceed to the second step.
2. The second step is a preliminary analysis of the event. A "blind" choice will not give a significant profit, especially over a long distance. It is important to identify the tennis player's motivation for the upcoming match, the state and incentive to win, as well as view the statistics of the last meetings held.
3. The third and final step is to look for an overestimated odds on the lines of bookmakers. As it was said, an insignificant margin will be reflected in the game bank at a distance. Therefore, it is important to look at all available lines and bet on the selected outcome.

Following such a plan, the bettor will be able to find suitable events and make verified bets over a long distance.

Event search example

Considering that this article is being written in the early morning of September 9, we will choose the nearest tennis event. For example, the choice fell on the evening finals of the US Open - a significant tennis tournament. Novak Djokovic vs Juan Martin Del Potro. The favorite of the meeting is Novak Djokovic. Without an analysis of the upcoming event, let's assume that the bettor chooses to win the Argentine tennis player, who is the underdog in the match. Having opened the line in Bet City, the bettor notices that the odds for the Argentinean to win is 2.9, which is very risky for the bet. Then the bettor looks at all kinds of lines in order to catch an overestimated odds. In "Parimatch" - 2.9, "Marathon" - 2.99, "Favbet" - 2.7, "1xbet" - 2.77. As you can see, the quotes differ significantly. Of course, the choice of the player will fall on the Marathon, where the victory of the Argentine tennis player is estimated at 2.99. The difference in quotes is 0.29, which will significantly affect the possible winnings on the bet.
For example, if the difference is 0.2, then for five winning bets the bank will increase by the amount of the bet. Assume that the bet amount is fixed and is 1.000. With five bets won, the bettor will replenish the game bank with an extra 1,000.

Conclusion

At first glance, it may seem that searching for the right quotes is a waste of time. However, if you take an extra 5-6 minutes to find suitable quotes for each individual event, you can significantly increase your own game bank in the long run.

High odds betting is an opportunity to calculate the bookmaker, his abilities and place a bet with the most probable outcome of a sporting event. Bookmakers, their analytical departments, numbering from hundreds to thousands of mathematical heads, are the most careful in setting a line on sports events. Absolutely all risks, offers on the market, the state and situation in a particular championship are taken into account. Even weather conditions, which can also affect the outcome of a sporting event.

However, even experienced bookmakers cannot 100% estimate the probability of the outcome of a sports match. They analyze all the collected information and set their odds, which the client (player in the bookmaker) accepts or not. This is precisely the professionalism of each player in the bookmaker's office, to find the mistakes of the bookmaker and trying to put down financial resources on them as early as possible.

How to determine the overestimated coefficient in the bookmaker's line?

To determine the overestimated coefficient, the player must be an experienced capper, and independently determine the chances of the teams. Without looking at the line of bookmakers, try to set your odds on upcoming event. And in the end, compare with the result of the bookmaker's analytical departments. If the views of the player and the bookmaker differ on some outcomes, this is an overestimated or underestimated coefficient!

An example of an overpriced bet

And so, let's consider an example on tossing a coin, the probability that it will fall on its edge is equal to a maximum of 0.02%. But if you think soberly, then you need to be a master or a magician to do this trick. The probability that the coin will fall heads up is 50%, tails - 50%. Translated into the line of bookmakers, these outcomes will be equal - 2.0 to 2.0. We take profit bk - margin, different companies have different ways, and we have a clean line that heads will fall - 1.95, tails will fall - 1.95. These are our calculations as a professional capper. And comparing with the line of bookmakers, we clearly see that the bookmaker offers us to play on the fact that heads will fall out for 1.7, tails, respectively - 2.2. Exactly the outcome of 2.2 is an overestimated coefficient.

In this case, the player, making bets using this method, will absolutely always have a profit.

Value betting how to play and how to find the value bet in bookmaker odds, we will conduct 2 experiments, look through the scanner and manually.

Value bets or value bets how to play correctly

Value betting system is a strategy that offers users to bet on underestimated events.

Value bets (Value bets) - these are bets on underestimated events from bookmakers. That is, where the BC coefficient is higher than the real one.

To fully understand the nature of this strategy, let's delve a little into probability theory.

Question: Why do most players lose their money at bookmakers?

Answer: Because they bet on the odds offered by the bookmaker, without thinking about statistics and probability in the long run.

Unclear? Let me explain with an example, bookmakers won’t tell you about this: let’s say you always bet 200 rubles at odds of 1.6. This means that the bookmaker determines the probability of these events passing as 100/1.6 = 62.5%.

Which, in turn, suggests that, according to statistics, in the long term, invisible to you, you will lose in 37.5% of cases. And this nullifies all the money won before.

The total mathematical expectation of your average profit over time will be:

Profit = P*(K-1)*V - (1-P)*V

• P is the probability of the event (value from 0 to 1);
• K — coefficient from the bookmaker's office;
• V is the money you bet.

Let's calculate on real numbers from the example above

Profit \u003d 0.625 * (1.6 - 1) * 200 - (1-0.625) * 200 \u003d 75 - 75 \u003d 0

Bad news? There are even worse. An important nuance: the bookmaker has a margin (which means that the default probability is greater than the real one, and the coefficient is less than - ), which automatically reduces the profit to a figure less than 0. I think you understand what this means.

How to be?

And now let's get back to the definition of a value bet or value bet.

Overweight betting (value betting) is a strategy in which you have to bet on undervalued odds with an advantage over the bookmaker. That is, the probability set by the bookmaker, in your opinion, is not the real probability of the outcome.

Example: match Argentina-Chile, the bookmaker puts odds of 1.6 on the victory of Argentina, which means that the probability of this event is 62.5%, and you think that the probability is 80%, which means real coefficient should be 100/80 = 1.25

How do you know if it's a value bet? The condition must be met (value betting formula):

• K is the coefficient of the bookmaker
• P is your probability of a positive outcome.

Let's make a calculation, substitute the data from the example:

1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28 > 1

1.28 - 1 = 0.28. This means that if you bet on such events, then in the long run, despite the losses, your profit will be 28% of each bet.

(You can find a calculator below so you don't have to do all this by hand)

Let's substitute the data into the formula that reflects the mathematical expectation of the average profit and imagine that the player makes 100 bets

Profit \u003d 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200 rubles - 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200 rubles \u003d 9600 - 4000 \u003d 5600 rubles

Q.E.D

How much to bet

To choose the optimal bet amount depending on the risk and underestimation of the outcome, the strategy is often used. It allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank you can bet on the current rate.

How to find value bets

All this is great, but how to find value bets on football, hockey and other sports where the value of the bet is determined by inflated odds.

Here are 3 possible ways

Find overvalued bet odds in the line yourself

If you are very well versed in a particular sport and consider yourself a true expert, able to evaluate all the factors that affect the outcome of an event, then the flag is in your hands. But I wildly doubt that your expert knowledge will be stronger than that of a team of experts from BC doing this professionally.

Using Value Betting Scanner, aka Value Betting Service

The principle of their operation is that they scan the odds for a specific event from a large number of offices and calculate the arithmetic average. Then they compare it with each coefficient separately, which are issued by the offices.

According to the assumption, the average value is the most exact value, because in fact all the experts from all the scanned bookmakers worked on it.

We conclude that the value that differs from the average upwards is an underestimated event.

Where can I find value bet scanner sites? Many of the arb services provide such an opportunity, for example, Surebet.

Search for value bets among surebets.

The fork is the source. The very existence of a fork means that one of the events is underestimated. A fork is essentially an initiator of a value bet. Read more, maybe you will learn a lot of new things for yourself.

If the service also issues live surebets, then here are the value bets in live. Their main disadvantage is the lack of time for a thorough analysis.

Let's get back… after analyzing the coefficients of other offices, you can easily guess which of the events is more underestimated.

Let's try to do all this in the field at real odds.

Value betting in practice. 2 cases

Case 1. Searching surebets scanner

Let's take a real fork in the USA-Canada hockey game

1/1,5+1/3,32 = 0,9678 < 1, значит вилка есть

And now let's try to determine which of the odds is overrated by analyzing other bookmakers

Let's calculate the average there and there:

(1,47+1,4+1,43+1,4+1,46+1,42+1,42+1,45) / 8 = 1,43

(2,82+3,0+2,9+2,85+2,94+2,85+2,85+2,78) / 8 = 2,87

Live, everything is possible, so we get both outcomes underestimated

• 1,43 < 1,5 на 1,5-1,43 = 0,07 это 3,27%
• 2,87 < 3,32 на 3,32-2,87 = 0,45 это 4,72%

and you can bet on any, but the outcome under(4,5) he is TM(4.5) more underrated, so bet on it.

Case 2. Manual search

Case how you can manually try to determine the value bet

Let's take the English Premier League match between Newcastle and Tottenham as an example. Suppose that even before the start of the match, you did a deep analysis and realized that the bookmaker set the odds skewed. Now we need to check if you are right.

To do this, you need to use the formula that was given earlier:

The odds for the hosts to win is 4.6. According to the statistics of past matches, Newcastle usually wins 1 match out of 4. This means that, based on the theory of probability, the hosts win in 25% of fights.

If we substitute our data into the formula, we get: 4.6 * 0.25 = 1.15. If the result is greater than one, then this bet will be profitable.

As you can see from the above example, our bet played. However, our system itself is rather doubtful. Value strategy bet is good in the long run. You can also apply it in symbiosis with the "" strategy. The main thing is that the final result of the calculation according to the formula must be greater than one.

Value bet calculator

For convenience, below is a Value betting calculator online service - a program where you can calculate the profitability of a bet.

1. field — enter the odds given by the bookmaker for the event
2. field - enter your personal assessment of the probability as a percentage

Conclusions. Is it profitable to use valueng. Review.

According to probability theory YES, but:

1. A really large number of bets is needed for the statistics to do their job (not 10, not 20, and not even 100, but more). Are you ready for this?
2. Are you sure that the rates you will use will actually be value bets?

But there are also arguments in defense:

1. Compared to surebets, you do not need to take risks and place a bunch of bets on all leverages at the same time.
2. Your account will not be blocked, as your behavior will be as similar as possible to the behavior of a regular player.
3. Profit is more than in surebets.

Sports betting is not a coin toss, and it is practically impossible to calculate the real probability of the outcome of events (the odds do not always reflect the true balance of teams' strengths). Bookmakers set their quotes based on the state of the market and their own assumptions. Therefore, a bettor who knows how to correctly calculate the mathematical expectation has excellent chances of making money by betting on overestimated odds.

How to find an overestimated coefficient?

To detect an underestimated event, the player needs to regularly monitor the movement of the bookmaker's line. To calculate the overestimated odds, the player must correctly determine the probability of the outcome of the event, and if his calculation turns out to be higher than the corresponding coefficient of the bookmaker, then it is necessary to place a bet.

Underestimated odds check formula:

K x B> 1,

where K is the bookmaker's odds, B is the calculated probability.

For example, when tossing a coin up, the bookmaker gives odds of 2.1 on heads, and the player believes that the odds of heads are 0.5 (50%).

Let's check the formula:

2.1*0.5>1,

Since the value is greater than one, this means that the bookmaker has overestimated the odds on the outcome of this event.

If a player makes 100 bets of 10 c.u. with K=2.1, then, ideally, 50 bets will win, the remaining 50 will lose.

We calculate the long-term profit of the player:

Win=50*10*2.1=1050 USD (550 USD profit)

Loss-50*10=-500

Now we sum up the profit and loss from 100 perfect bets and get:

Navar=550-500=50 USD

For a successful game, the bettor must find a sufficient number of overpriced odds, this is quite complicated and painstaking work. Let's give you a hint, in most matches with obvious favorites (K=1.1-1.6), the odds for the favorite are initially underestimated, and the odds for the outsider are sometimes deliberately overestimated by bookmakers to even out the line. To find underrated events, there are also many paid and free ones. online services(mostly foreign).

As a result, by betting on inflated odds, the player guarantees himself a profit in the long game. However, 50% of losing bets (on a coin toss) tells us that such a game will require an effective financial strategy of bank management.