In search of an acceptable strategy: a large bet - a small odds. What does total mean in bets - fractional and integer Choice by last dry draw

Live betting strategy (football)

For a strategy to be profitable, several preconditions must be met.

The strategy of making a guaranteed profit from betting with insurance, which is most suitable for playing on an exchange (for example, Betfair) due to “floating” quotes, this is what makes it effective. To use this strategy, it is necessary to: 1) bet in live, 2) follow the video broadcast of the match, 3) wait until exactly 1 goal is scored (that is, the score is 1:0 or 0:1). It is best if the score was opened by the team that was quoted as the clear favorite before the match.

Watching the match, shortly before the break, you can often observe that the teams are no longer trying to score. Of course, this can happen at any moment, but a few minutes before the whistle about the end of the 1st half, the teams usually play defensively in order not to concede a goal “into the locker room”.

At this point, you bet on the betting exchange for total under 2.5 goals (back bet).

Ideally, this should be done in the 40th minute of the game. The coefficient on "total under" at this moment, with the score 1:0 or 0:1, is still quite large and can reach 2.50 or higher.

After that, sit back in your chair and continue watching the match. In the last couple of minutes before the whistle for the break and during the break, the odds for total over/under change very much. The coefficient on the "bottom" can fall somewhere by 0.3, for example, and this is an ideal situation for insurance, which guarantees you a profit in any outcome!

You place a bet AGAINST the total under 2.5 goals, that is, you bet that there will be a reverse outcome. It is better to choose the amount for this bet so that the profit is the same for any outcome. If you did everything right, you are guaranteed to earn.

Situation: You are watching a Chelsea vs Manchester United match. The favorite before the match is Chelsea. The teams play defensively, but Chelsea still manage to score in the first half. At the 40th minute the score was 1:0. You see that the teams are being cautious and betting on the total under 2.5 goals with odds of 2.50 in the amount of $10. The first half ends - 1:0.

At the beginning of the second half, the coefficient on the "bottom", for example, is already 2.20. You bet against total under 2.5 goals betting strategy total over 0 5 Odds of 2.20 for a lay bet will be "inverse", its real odds will be 1.83. This means that you need to bet $13.6 in order to receive about $25 in revenue if you win against Under2.5.

Now we count. If the match ends with a score of 1:0, 2:0 or 1:1, your first bet wins, on total under 2.5 goals, in the amount of $10 - and you get $25. Subtract the sum of both bets from the proceeds and get a profit of $1.4. If there are 3 goals or more in the match, your lay bet wins: $13.6 x 1.83 = $24.9. Then the profit will be $1.3.

It may seem that the profit is too small, but in fact, almost 15% of the initial rate is more than enough. As the amount of the bet increases, the profit will also increase.

The risk is that another goal may be scored at the end of the first half - after you have already bet on the total under 2.5 goal betting strategy total over 0 5 But this rarely happens, and if you are careful, you can win regularly . Success!

Everything that is written below applies only to bets on football, unless another sport is indicated.

I would like to try out a strategy that just recently came to mind. In short: football, total over 0.5 (odds 1.05 - 1.07), express of 3, maximum 5 events, bet from 50,000 rubles. Yes, it looks risky, you can lose a lot of money at once, and the potential gain is much less than the amount invested. But maybe there is still common sense in this strategy?

And now in order.

A little bit about yourself

I always wanted to bet less and win more. I am not an expert in sports (I can’t make out a football match according to tactical and technical actions a la Bubnov). I don't consider myself an experienced bettor either. - I mainly place bets during major events: World Cup, European Football Championship, etc. I used to bet on wins, non-losses, totals 2.5 over/under, odds. I never bet on statistics (corners, cards) - not mine. I use only express, I do not install systems. Actively put on the last European Championship 2016. I made about 15 bets, every 3rd one was winning, but only 3000 rubles in profit. for the whole championship! This is very little!

Why I'm looking for a new strategy

Tired of betting on the results of matches (winning, not losing). The sport is too unpredictable. Favorites often draw or lose to not the strongest teams, and in a dispute between 2 approximately equal teams, the outcome is very difficult to predict. I started trying to bet on totals, betting on under 3.5 or even under 4.5. But, it happens that contrary to all forecasts, teams can break through, and they will chop a bunch of heads at each other.

Total over 0.5 and an attempt to justify the strategy

Yes, there is such a rate, although I had not noticed it before. The coefficient is very small, depending on the class of teams: maybe 1.05, maybe 1.1. coming from the simplest, banal logic: the goal of each team is to score a goal against the opponent, which they try to do within 90 minutes. As a rule, this is obtained by either one or both teams. The result 0-0 occurs, but very, very rarely. This is the only danger to our strategy that we must try to avoid.

I don't care who wins and how many scores and concedes at the same time. Let the favorites lose or draw. The main thing is that there should be at least one single goal per match. There is no need to be an expert and have a good understanding of the sport. Yes, and I have already seen a lot of forecasts from experts. Like them, all of us, ordinary bettors, try to think logically before the match: we analyze the state of the teams, their latest results, we look, whether this is a home match for the team we bet on, or an away match, we evaluate the motivation of the teams ... And how many misses happen: anything can happen on the field that we could not predict before the match, using our logic: for example, 2 red cards for Roma against Porto on 23/08/16 and goodbye, favorite. And there are many such examples.

Big bet - small odds. Event Selection

Because odds on total over 0.5 tend to zero (or rather to one), then in order to win something, you need to risk more, much more larger amount than most of us are used to. The list of events is also limited: if Barcelona or Manchester City is playing, then there is no such bet at all, and the line starts with a total of 1.5. If there are very chronic middles with a weak attack, then the danger of a 0-0 result increases (together with a coefficient that can reach 1.1.). And if, say, Arsenal, or any other team "with a name" plays with some middle peasant, then the coefficient on the total is higher, 0.5 will be 1.05 - 1.06.

If we put an express of 3 events with odds. 1.05, then at a bet of 50,000, the winnings will be 50,000 x 1.1576 = 57880. You need to win 6.3 bets to only double the amount of the original bet, i.e. win + 50 000 rub.

You can make an accumulator of 5 events, or choose events where the odds for the total are higher than 0.5, for example, 1.07-1.09. But the risk also increases accordingly.

Finally

The quieter you go, the further you'll get. Greed and the desire for quick profit - best qualities that bookmakers would like to see in their clients. I think for such a strategy you need to have a bank somewhere in the 200,000 - 500,000 rubles. and nerves of steel. I expect that with accumulators of 3 events (with their careful selection), winnings will happen often, very often, which will block possible losses. You can bet 2 times a week: choose events from each game day of the main European championships.

Whether this strategy is good or bad, only time will tell. But I understood one thing for sure: if you really want to win something, then you need a lot of patience and ... a lot of money. With one thousand rubles for this purpose, there is nothing to do in the BC. And with two too. To win big (in the long run, a little bit each time), you need to risk a much larger amount.

As I said at the beginning, I am not an experienced player so don't judge too harshly. I just wanted to think about this strategy.

• • High-quality selection of matches gives high cross-country ability and a permanent plus.

• The result is almost immediate. After 45 minutes you get a guaranteed profit.
• Can be used different option risk management (aggressive trading, where the winning amount is higher, or more conservative)
  On long distance This strategy brings a stable plus.
• The only disadvantage of the strategy is that in order to catch a normal odds for TB 0.5, you often need to bet during the match, i.e. in live. Of course, you can bet on the current one - but then the odds will be in the region of 1.2-1.3.
  

  The Against Score strategy captivates with its simplicity of execution - you bet on the match that you received in our forecast. We advise you to bet in this bookmaker, and you can find a review on our website. Why this BC? Because of high odds for events, because of reliability, because of instant payouts and round-the-clock support.

  You place a bet in 1 half on a total over 0.5. Thus, the bet wins if the score of the first half changes, and loses if the first half ends in a goalless draw.
  If the first half ended 0-0, then we place an increased bet for the second half on the total over (tb) 0.5.
  Increased rate this is the bet that allows you to cover minus 1 half + makes a profit.
  At first glance, the strategy seems very simple, but not everything is so simple. There will be matches where there will be quick goals in the first or second half. After a zero first half, you have to choose correct match to catch up, which will close the minus of the previous half. Over time, you will have an inner feeling of the correct choice of a particular match. But back to the basics.

  If the match ended 0-0

  If the match ended 0-0, then the strategy against the score provides for several options for the development of events.

  1. The safest is to fix the minus and start betting from scratch.

  The strategy is positive even with such a light game. There are days when there is a minus, but that's okay.

  2. Catch up with a minus in the next match.

  Take the next match from those offered by us and catch up. Unsure about a match? You can consult with us. We will tell you which match is better to catch up.
  Dogon requires a big bank. But the profit here is many times greater than when playing flat.

  Among the dozens of strategies we have tested, we single out this "Against the Count" strategy and its variations. It has been profitable for conference participants for several years now and is one of the most profitable today.

Selection of a match for the strategy tb 0.5

Separately, I would like to dwell on the topic of selecting a match for ours.

What matches are suitable for over 0.5 strategy? You can take a look at:

• Driving league matches
• Matches where present clear favorite and out
• Matches where motivation is off scale

With experience, you will have a large database of clubs that you can bet on without much analysis.

Pick up matches, practice, you can first on a piece of paper for candy wrappers and only then move on to real bets.n

Total over 0.5 in football.
A betting system that allows you to get a significant amount of profit without exposing your bankroll to risk. As the title makes clear, we will bet on over 0.5 goals in the match. This means that we bet that at least one goal will be scored by any team. Only result 0-0 break our chain of victories. If you choose matches carefully, you can easily achieve a chain of 30-60 wins.

This is what we are striving for.
The system is progressive. This means that for each next match we bet everything that we won in the previous one. We repeat this until it seems to us that it is time to stop.
The system is good for use on betfair, on inplay markets (in play)- that is, during the game.
To use it, trading skills or any additional knowledge on the Betfair exchange are not required. The ability to make a simple ordinary bet will be enough. The reason Betfair fits is high ratio(higher than bookmakers) and great liquidity in almost all matches.

First

First, decide on the size of the bet. You don't need huge sums. 2 or 10 dollars will be enough.

Second

Find a game where you think at least one goal will be scored. If you are not an expert in football, you can use the predictions of others.

Third

Select the market "total over 0.5 goals"

In the picture above, our case is highlighted in yellow - "one goal or more in a match"
Do not place a bet before the game! Wait for the match to start. This system works during the match. We will place a bet as soon as the odds increase slightly.

Several options for entering the game:
- if you are aiming for a quick goal, then place a bet immediately after the start of the game.
Tip: the coefficient for the bet must be at least 1.11 ! Don't bet on odds below this. If an early goal was scored before the odds became acceptable, it's a pity. Switch to the next match. Don't forget that Betfair takes commissions. 5% from your profit, so wait for the coefficient at least 1.11 .
- you can wait 30 minutes as most goals are scored after this time mark. By this time, the coefficient will increase enough.
-You can choose not to bet in the first half and bet in the second. The rate will be higher 1.2 which will increase the gain.
You decide what is most convenient for you!

Let's see how much we can win with this system with a $10 bet.
If you bet with an average odd of 1.10, then 30 consecutive wins will give you
$10 x 17 = $170!
If you bet with an average odd of 1.20, then 30 consecutive wins will give you
10$ x 237 = 2.370$!
As you can see, the system is worthy of attention!

Today we will consider a fairly popular betting system on Goal in the first half. As you understand it will be about football matches. Let's start, as usual, with the essence of the strategy, consider an example for understanding, and study the betting algorithms in LIVE mode. Yes, it is in Live that you will often have to use a strategy. Well, at the end, as usual, there will be a conclusion.

The essence of the strategy Goal in the first half

As already managed to guess it is necessary to predict. which team will be able to score a goal in the first half football match. This bet has its own name - First half total over 0.5 or TB 0.5 if abbreviated. Naturally, there is nothing complicated at first glance. But what is the salt?

How to choose the right team for a bet

For team selection, there are several approaches that will need to be covered so that you have a full clip of options. Especially for general development it will come in handy.

Selecting a command using a formula

We select a football event, for example K1 - K2. To determine who to bet on, you need to look at the statistics of the last 5 matches and how many goals they scored in the first half. For the calculation, we use the coefficients: a goal scored at home is 1 goal, a goal scored away is 2 goals, a goal conceded at home is 2 goals, a goal conceded away is 1 goal. Using these parameters, we calculate the statistics for 5 games.

• For example, for K1 - scored 1 goal at home = 1 goal, scored 2 goals away = 4 goals, conceded 1 goal at home = 2 goals, conceded 3 goals away = 3 goals.
• Suppose for K2 - scored 1 goal at home = 1 goal, scored 0 goals away = 0 goals, conceded 4 goals at home = 8 goals, conceded 4 goals away = 4 goals.

Now, using a simple formula, we calculate the odds that will allow us to find out who is more likely to score a goal in the 1st half.

(Goals scored at home / Goals conceded away) + (Goals scored away / Goals conceded)

Coefficient for K1 = (1/4)+(4/8)=0.25+0.5= 0.75

Coefficient for K2 = (1/3) + (0/2) = 0.33

The lower the coefficient, the higher the probability that the team will score a goal in the 1st half. Match result: Team K2 scored 2 goals in the first half.

For this strategy to work hard, it is necessary that the coefficient be more than 0.6 , but if the coefficient turns out to be 1, then it is better not to bet on this match at all.

Selection by last dry draw

This type of selection is quite simple, for this you need statistics for the last 5 seasons, goals scored in 1.2 halves and goals scored in the match in different leagues in general, we will bring them into a single table and will use it to determine the percentage of entry. I'll provide data on three of them. I think you can do the rest of the work yourself.

• Germany Bundesliga: Goals scored in 1st half: 67,4% 26,5% Goals scored in matches 93,9%
• Germany 3rd league: Goals scored in 1st half: 57,9% Goals scored in the 2nd half: 32,4% Goals scored in matches 93,9%
• Egypt Premier League: Goals scored in 1st half: 52,4% Goals scored in the 2nd half: 36,4% Goals scored in matches 88,8%

1. We are looking for an event in which the last outcome was 0-0 (dry or eggs)
2. We determine the country and league in which the teams play. We analyze with the help of the table whether it is suitable.
3. If the event is suitable, then we bet the usual TB0.5 in the first half, if a goal was scored in the first half, we bet that they will score in the second half in order to return the money spent and also win.
4. Goal in the second half! Bingo.

I advise Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, English Premier League (Junior 21), German Bundesliga, Hungarian Premier League, Belgian Premier League, Scandinavian League countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland), Dutch Premier League, Czech Premier League.

I do not advise: Argentina, Egypt, all Cup matches, friendlies, especially international ones, because the result is too unpredictable.

Choice by house favorite

There is an option to select matches and teams for betting on Goal in the first half by looking for a favorite to score who plays at home. Specifically, you need clogging favorite team with odds no more than 1.7 and for this team to play Houses, only with the observance of these conditions, one can hope for a positive outcome of the bets.

To win, you need to bet at the end of the first half of the first half. The coefficient usually rises to 2. If the favorite team attacks a lot and often creates scoring chances, then you should bet. However, if the game is inactive and there are few scoring chances, then you need to make the opposite bet in order to win back the bet or even be in the black a little, i.e. create a surebet type for bet insurance.

First Half Goal Insurance

As described above, in the middle of the first half, if the account is not opened and there are no prerequisites, then you can use Live to make the opposite bet to insure the original one. Or you can bet on a goal in the second half.

bet365 1st and 2nd half goal betting scheme

There is a certain scheme tailored for the bet365 bookmaker (but it is also suitable for other bookmakers). I covered it separately in the blog: bet365 betting scheme for goals in the first and second half.

Conclusion

The strategy is quite interesting and attractive, but as old as the world. In general, if you have statistics and are well versed in teams, it can give a good profit. I think this is a worthy strategy, especially in conjunction with financial strategies