Optimization and forecasting of turnover volumes. Forecasting the turnover of a new store
One of the indicators that characterizes the dynamics of the company's sales is turnover. It is calculated in selling prices. Analysis of the turnover gives an assessment of the qualitative and quantitative indicators of work in the current period. The validity of calculations for future periods depends on the conclusions made. Let's take a closer look at trade.
inventory turnover
Everything that is in the warehouse is a current asset of the organization. This is frozen cash. In order to understand how long it will take to convert goods into cash, an inventory turnover analysis is carried out.
The presence of commodity balances on the one hand is an advantage. But even when they accumulate, sales decline, the organization still has to pay taxes on inventory. In such cases, we speak of low turnover. At the same time, the high speed of selling goods is not always a big advantage. With an increase in turnover, there is a risk that the client will not find the right product and turn to another seller. To find the golden mean, you need to be able to analyze and plan inventory turnover.
Terms
A commodity is something that is bought and sold. This category also includes services if their cost is paid by the buyer (packaging, delivery, payment for communication services, etc.).
Inventory is a list of goods available for sale. For retailers and wholesalers, inventory is the items on the shelves and those that are in stock, shipped and stored.
The term "inventory" also includes products that are still in transit, in stock or on receivables. In the latter case, ownership remains with the seller until the goods are paid for. Theoretically, he can ship it to his warehouse. When calculating the turnover, only those products that are in stock are taken into account.
Turnover is the volume of sales in monetary terms, calculated for a certain period. Next, the algorithm by which the turnover is calculated, the calculation formula will be described.
Example 1
Average inventory:
Tz cf = 278778 \ (6-1) = 55755.6 thousand rubles.
Osr" \u003d (Balances at the beginning + Balances at the end) / 2 \u003d (45880 + 39110) / 2 \u003d 42495 thousand rubles.
Turnover and how to calculate it
The firm's liquidity ratio depends on the rate of conversion of funds invested in stocks into cash. To determine the liquidity of stocks, the turnover ratio is used. It is calculated according to different parameters (cost, quantity), periods (month, year), for one product or an entire category.
There are several types of turnover:
- the turnover of each product in any quantitative indicators (pieces, by volume, weight, etc.);
- turnover of goods by value;
- the turnover of the entire stock in quantitative terms;
- turnover of the entire inventory at cost.
In practice, the following formulas are most often used to determine the efficiency of using reserves:
1) The classic formula for calculating turnover:
T \u003d (Remaining inventory at the beginning of the period) / (Sales volume for the month)
2) Average turnover (calculation formula for the year, quarter, half year) :
Тз ср = (ТЗ1+…+T3n) / (n-1)
3) Turnover period:
OB days = (Average turnover * Number of days in the period) / Sales volume for the period
This indicator calculates the number of days it takes to sell inventory.
4) Turnover in times:
About p \u003d Number of days / About days \u003d Sales volume for the period / Average turnover
This coefficient shows how many turnovers the product makes during the period under review.
The higher the turnover, the more efficient the activity of the organization, the less the need for capital, and the more stable the position of the enterprise.
5) Stock level:
Uz \u003d (Commodity stock at the end of the period * Number of days) / Turnover for the period
The level of stocks characterizes the security of the company with goods on a certain date. It shows how many days of trading the organization will have enough inventory.
Peculiarities
The formula for calculating turnover and other indicators presented above is used subject to the following conditions:
- If the organization does not have stocks, then it makes no sense to calculate the turnover.
- Retail turnover, the calculation formula for which will be presented below, may be incorrectly determined if it includes targeted deliveries of goods. For example, a company won a tender to supply materials to a shopping center. Under this order, a large batch of sanitary ware was delivered. These items should not be included in the turnover calculation.
- The calculation takes into account the live stock, that is, the goods that arrived at the warehouse were sold, and those for which there are balances, but there was no movement.
- The turnover of goods is calculated only at purchase prices.
Example 2
Conditions for calculations are presented in the table.
Month | Implemented, pcs. | Remaining, pcs. |
Average stock |
Determine the turnaround time in days. In the analyzed period 180 days. During this time, 1701 goods were sold, and the average monthly balance was 328 pieces:
OBday \u003d (328 * 180) / 1701 \u003d 34.71 days
That is, from the moment the warehouse is delivered to its sale, an average of 35 days passes.
Let's calculate the turnover in times:
ABOUT times \u003d 180 / 34.71 \u003d 1701 / 328 \u003d 5.19 times.
For six months, the stock of goods turns around 5 times on average.
Let's determine the stock level:
Uz \u003d (243 * 180) / 1701 \u003d 25.71.
The organization's existing inventory will last for 26 days of operation.
purpose
Inventory turnover is analyzed to find positions where the commodity-money-commodity cycle rate is very low and make a decision accordingly. It makes no sense to analyze goods of different categories in this way. For example, in a grocery store, a bottle of cognac may be sold at a faster rate than a loaf. But this does not mean that bread should be excluded from the assortment of goods. It is not necessary to simply analyze these two categories in this way.
Compare the following products within the same category: bread with other bakery products, and cognac with high-end alcoholic beverages. Only in this case it is possible to draw conclusions about the intensity of turnover of a particular product.
An analysis of sales dynamics in comparison with previous periods will allow us to conclude that demand has changed. If during the analyzed period the turnover ratio has decreased, then there is an overstocking of the warehouse. If the rate increases and rapidly, then we are talking about working “from the wheels”. In conditions of commodity shortage, warehouse stocks can be zero. In this case, inventory turnover can be calculated in hours.
If the warehouse has accumulated seasonal goods for which there is low demand, then it will be difficult to achieve turnover. You will have to buy a wide range of rare goods, which will affect their liquidity. Therefore, all calculations will be incorrect.
It is also important to analyze the terms of delivery. If an organization purchases at its own expense, then the calculation of turnover will be indicative. If goods are bought on credit, then low turnover is not critical for the company. The main thing is that the period for the return of funds does not exceed the calculated value of the coefficient.
Types of trade
Just as prices are divided into retail and wholesale prices, commodity circulation is divided into similar two types. In the first case, we are talking about the sale of goods for cash or at standard prices, and in the second - about the sale by bank transfer or at wholesale prices.
Methods
In practice, the following methods of calculating turnover are used:
- Based on the consumption of goods by residents of one area.
- According to the planned number of sales and the average unit cost.
- According to the actual turnover of the organization (the most popular method).
Data for calculations are taken from accounting and statistical reporting.
Dynamics
The following formula for calculating turnover shows the change in the indicator at current prices:
D \u003d (The fact of the turnover of the current year / The fact of the turnover of the last year) * 100%.
The dynamics of trade turnover in comparable prices is determined by the following formula:
D sop = (Fact of turnover in comparable prices / Fact of turnover of the last year) * 100%.
Example 3
Trade turnover in 2015 - 2.6 million rubles.
- Sales forecast for 2016 - 2.9 million rubles.
- Trade turnover in 2016 - 3 million rubles.
Let's define sales: (3/2.8)*100 = 107%.
- Let's calculate the turnover in current prices: (3/2.6)*100 = 115%.
Price index
If prices have changed during the study period, then you first need to calculate their index. The value of this indicator increases under the influence of inflationary processes on the country's economy. The coefficient shows the change in the cost of a certain number of goods over a period. Formula for calculating the price index:
Itz. = C new / C old
This formula is often used by statistical authorities to analyze for certain categories of goods. For example, the volume of goods sold in 2014 was 100 thousand rubles, and in 2016 - 115 thousand rubles. Calculate the price index:
Itz = 115/100 = 1.15, that is, prices increased by 15% over the year.
Only after these actions is used the formula for calculating the turnover in comparable prices:
Fact = (Turnover at current prices / Turnover of last year) * 100%.
Example 4
In 2015, the turnover of the company amounted to 20 million rubles, and in 2016 - 24 million rubles. During the reporting period, prices increased by 40%. It is necessary to calculate the turnover according to the formulas presented earlier.
Let us determine the wholesale turnover at current prices. Calculation formula:
Тт = 24/20 * 100 = 120% - for the current year, the turnover has grown by 20%.
Let's calculate the price index: 140%/100% = 1.4.
Let's define the turnover in comparable prices: 24/1.4 = 17 million rubles.
The formula for calculating turnover in dynamics: 17/20*100 = 85%.
The calculation of the dynamics showed that the growth occurred only due to an increase in prices. If they had not changed, the trade turnover would have decreased by 17 million rubles. (by 15%). That is, there is an increase in prices, not the number of goods sold.
Example 5
The initial data for completing the task are presented in the table below.
Forecast, thousand rubles | Fact. turnover, thousand rubles | |||
Now you need to determine the turnover for the current year at the prices of the previous period.
First, let's determine the percentage of fulfillment of the sales plan: 5480/5300*100 = 103.4%.
Now we need to determine the dynamics of trade turnover as a percentage compared to 2015: 5480/4650*100 = 120%.
Trade turnover for 2015, thousand rubles | |||||
Forecast, thousand rubles | Fact. turnover, thousand rubles | Performance, % | In relation to the previous year, % |
||
As a result of overfulfillment of the sales plan in 2016, the company sold products worth 180 thousand rubles. more. During the year, the volume of sales increased by 920 thousand rubles.
A detailed calculation of retail turnover by quarters makes it possible to determine the uniformity of sales, to identify the degree of satisfaction of demand. Additionally, it is also worth analyzing sales by months to identify signs of a decline in demand.
The formula for calculating turnover in retail trade
The analysis of price changes by commodity groups provides for the quantitative and cost assessment of individual goods, the determination of the dynamics of their shifts. The results of the study are used to study the correspondence of supply to demand and influence the formation of orders.
The analysis of turnover is carried out on a quarterly basis. Based on the results of the audit, it is possible to establish the reasons why the turnover has changed. The formula for calculating the balance sheet is given below:
Zn + Nt + Pr \u003d R + C + B + U + Zk, where
Zn (k) - stocks at the beginning (end) of the planning period;
Нт - commodity allowance;
Pr - arrival of goods;
P - sale of goods by separate groups;
B - disposal of goods;
B - natural loss;
U - markdown.
You can determine the degree of influence of balance sheet indicators by calculating the difference between planned and actual indicators, or using the chain substitution method. At the next stage, the retail turnover, the calculation formula of which was presented above, is analyzed for changes as a result of improved labor productivity, an increase in the number of employees and the efficiency of the use of fixed assets. The analysis is completed by determining the prospects for growth in sales volume and changing the structure of goods.
Chapter 1 Theoretical Aspects of Retail Trade
1.1 The concept and essence of retail turnover
1.2 Composition and significance of retail turnover
1.3 System of indicators and factors determining its value
Chapter 2 Methodological aspects of retail trade
2.1 Analysis of retail turnover
2.2 Retail sales planning
Chapter 3 Study of the activities of the enterprise LLC "Amira"
3.1 Organizational and economic characteristics of the activity of the enterprise Amira LLC for the period of the 1st and 2nd half of 2009
3.2 Analysis of the retail turnover of Amira LLC for the 1st and 2nd half of 2009
3.3 Planning of retail turnover of Amira LLC for the 1st and 2nd half of the year
Conclusion
Literature
Introduction
Retail turnover refers to the sale of goods to the population to meet personal needs in exchange for its cash income.
The transition of trade enterprises to the market concept of development changed the assessment of their target function, which affected the system economic indicators. First of all, this refers to the indicator of retail turnover.
The main goal of commercial enterprises at the present time is to obtain maximum profit, and the turnover acts as the most important and necessary condition, without which this goal cannot be achieved. Since a trading enterprise receives a certain amount of income from each ruble of goods sold, the problem of profit maximization necessitates a constant increase in the volume of trade as the main factor in the growth of income and profit. This is the importance of retail trade.
The purpose of writing this topic is to study the concept, the essence of retail turnover, its composition, meaning, system of indicators. Conduct an analysis of retail turnover, planning (sales forecast) both in general for turnover and for a specific enterprise.
The object of study in the course work is the company Amira LLC, which sells both food and non-food products to the population.
The research methods are the Charter of the enterprise and reporting, namely: balance sheet, appendix to the balance sheet, profit and loss statement, and all this for the 1st and 2nd half of 2009. With the help of these statements, various economic indicators are calculated: sales proceeds (turnover), cost, gross income, distribution costs, etc.
The first chapter of the course work contains the concept, the essence of retail turnover, which lies in the fact that retail is an act of exchanging money for goods and services. The consumer in the exchange seeks to acquire the goods he needs good quality and the retailer profits. And also we find out the composition and significance of retail turnover. The structure includes the sale of goods for cash and non-cash payments, the sale of food and non-cash food products various organizations, the population, etc.
The second chapter contains an analysis of retail turnover. The technique of this analysis is: the study of the implementation of the plan of turnover; building a chain of interconnection of indicators; identification of internal reserves of retail trade; increase in the volume of trade and improvement of its assortment country of magic. Analysis can be of the following types: analysis by time series, operational analysis, comparative analysis, strategic analysis. This chapter also describes the planning of turnover (sales forecast), which is long-term, medium-term and short-term. It reveals the methodology for planning turnover, taking into account the need for profit; method of technical and economic calculations.
The third chapter contains: organizational - economic characteristics of the activities of the enterprise LLC "Amira", i.e. general provisions, goals and subject of activity, legal status of the company, authorized capital. We analyzed the implementation of the turnover plan of the Amira LLC store for six months and quarters, as well as the calculation of the impact of indicators of the availability of commodity resources and their use based on the store's commodity balance. We also found a critical point of sales of trade turnover, a margin of financial strength.
When writing a term paper, the following literature was most used: Valevich R.P. "Economics of a trading enterprise", Avanesov Yu.A. "Economics of the enterprise of trade and services", Solomatin A.N. “Economics and organization of a trading enterprise, Borisov N.S. "Analysis of economic activity".
Chapter 1 Theoretical Aspects of Retail Trade
1.1 The concept and essence of retail turnover
Retailing is essentially an exchange business involving the sale of goods to final consumers for personal, family, household or collective use. This is the final stage of marketing. Being a necessary link in the distribution system, it ensures the promotion of goods from the manufacturer to the final consumer. In a market economy, all enterprises must buy and sell in order to receive funds for the development of economic activities. The economy of production and consumption is at the same time the economy of buying and selling. Through retail sale, the value of a part of the social product receives public recognition.
Retailing is the act of exchanging money for goods and services that is beneficial to the parties involved. When exchanging, the consumer seeks to acquire the goods of good quality he needs, and the retailer seeks profit. In the process of making an act of purchase, the consumer also receives a certain psychological satisfaction, strengthens or enhances his social status. Buying promotes self-expression and self-affirmation of the buyer.
Retailers can be classified into product categories and groups that dominate the assortment; on methods of trade and the level of customer service; on the basis of the store belonging to one or another owner; by location, structure and strategy of the store.
Retail trade mainly performs the following functions: purchase of goods, their transportation and storage; risk taking, financial activities, market information and market information, sorting, reworking, branding purchased products, selling goods, after-sales customer service.
Retail trade occupies an important place in the distribution system. It provides the buyer with a minimum expenditure of effort and time to purchase the goods he needs by choosing from the available assortment, close to places of residence or work, in quantities convenient for consumption. The interior of stores often contributes to making a purchase.
It is understood as the sale of goods to the population to satisfy personal needs in exchange for its monetary income.
Economic relations associated with the exchange of cash income for goods express the economic essence of retail turnover: it characterizes the completion of the circulation process, goods become the property of consumers, are consumed, or form a consumer fund.
However, the population satisfies its needs for consumer goods not only through their individual consumption, but also through various forms joint consumption. Retail is a complex system that operates in a rapidly changing socio-economic environment. It constantly takes into account the needs and desires of customers, changes in the socio-economic environment, market conditions and provides the necessary range of goods, additional services, amenities.
To sell well, you need to know who the buyer is, who produces goods of the required quality and at a price acceptable to buyers, and you should also find out what goods are sold in other stores by competitors.
Retail trade, along with shops and other commercial establishments, includes catering and service industries.
Retail turnover is closely related to money circulation. It involves a significant part of the money in circulation; an increase or decrease in the volume of sales of consumer goods causes corresponding changes in the flow of money to banks. Its development reflects the national economic proportions between production and consumption, the demand of the population and the supply of goods, retail sales and money circulation.
Retail turnover also includes the sale by bank transfer of certain consumer goods to organizations, institutions and enterprises, as well as the sale of food products to organizations of the social and cultural sphere to feed the contingent of the population they serve.
Under the retail turnover, the Buyers in this case are various organizations, institutions, enterprises. The sale of goods to organizations and enterprises can be carried out both by bank transfer and for cash and is called small-scale wholesale. In the retail turnover, small-scale wholesale sales account for approximately 5%.
Retail turnover is the most important indicator of a trading enterprise. It characterizes the volume of activity of the enterprise, the volume of gross income and profit depends on it.
1.2 Composition and significance of retail turnover
The structure includes: the sale of goods from the retail network for cash, by checks of a savings bank, by transfers from the accounts of bank depositors, for foreign currency and on credit.
Sale of fuel, lubricants, spare parts and other care products for vehicles for individual use by gas stations and shops of the oil product supply system.
Sale of uniforms to workers and employees both from the retail network and from warehouses for the material and technical supply of organizations, institutions, and enterprises.
Sale by trade enterprises of goods accepted from cooperatives, small enterprises, limited liability companies and self-employed persons.
Sale of agricultural products, livestock, poultry and other goods by state farms directly from farms at markets, fairs, from subsidiary farms and collective farms through a trading network specially organized by them.
Sale to the population of forest building materials and other consumer goods directly by associations, enterprises, organizations, institutions.
Sale of timber and wood fuel to the population by timber industry enterprises.
Sale of goods at auctions and through thrift and commercial thrift shops and stalls.
Sale to the population of durable goods according to samples.
Sale of printed publications by subscription.
Sale of empty containers to the population.
Sale of goods by bank transfer in the order of small wholesale trade.
Sale of milk, fats and other medical and preventive nutrition by manufacturing enterprises for workers and employees employed in shops with harmful working conditions.
Retail turnover is the basis for determining the need for material, labor and financial resources and at the same time occupies a subordinate position in relation to profit.
Retail turnover is measured by cost and natural indicators, indicators of growth and sales per capita.
Like any cost indicator, retail turnover has some disadvantages. Prices affect its size, and it can increase due to the sale of expensive goods, and not goods that have affordable prices for the mass consumer. This must be taken into account when evaluating the effectiveness of a trading enterprise.
Retail turnover is also of national economic importance. Through the turnover there is a change in the forms of value of consumer goods created in the production process. As a result, production costs are reimbursed and conditions are created for further development production.
Through retail trade, the value and use value of consumer goods are given public recognition.
Retail turnover is an important link in the process of implementing the economic law of distribution according to work. Cash incomes received in accordance with the quantity and quality of labor expended are exchanged through retail trade for the necessary goods.
Retail turnover significantly affects the money circulation in the country and the stability of the currency, since the circulation of cash is mainly associated with the maintenance of retail turnover.
Retail turnover can be used to calculate labor intensity, capital intensity, cost intensity, capital intensity of resources. With the help of these indicators, it is possible, as a first approximation, to determine the need of the enterprise for additional resources to ensure the growth of turnover.
The development of retail trade should be closely linked to such economic indicators as demand, the receipt of goods, inventories, profits, the number of employees, and labor costs. At the same time, such a ratio in the development of these indicators, which is presented in the models of strategic regulation of trade turnover, is considered optimal.
1.3 The system of indicators of retail turnover and factors determining its value
Retail turnover is the basis for determining the need for all types of resources and at the same time occupies a subordinate position in relation to profit.
Profit maximization is the main goal of any trading enterprise. Its achievement is impossible without determining the optimal volume of trade, ensuring the achievement of the greatest profit. For trade organizations, it is necessary to achieve such a volume of retail turnover that can provide the maximum possible profit, subject to high-quality customer service.
The system of indicators of trade turnover: the volume of trade in value terms at current prices; the volume of trade in value terms in comparable prices; assortment structure of trade turnover for certain groups of goods; one-day volume of trade; the volume of trade per employee, including an employee of a trade group; time of circulation of goods, days of turnover; the speed of turnover, the number of revolutions.
The structure of retail turnover reflects the ratio between food and non-food products, the assortment composition of sales. In addition, retail turnover is characterized by indicators of commodity stocks and receipts (purchases) of goods.
The indicators of sales, inventory and receipts are balance-related, which is reflected by the formulas
Zn + P \u003d P + Zk,
Hence P = Zn + P - Zk,
Zk + P \u003d P + Vpr + Ue + Zk,
From here P \u003d Zn + P - Vpr - Ue - Zk,
where Зн, Зк - commodity stocks, respectively, at the beginning and end of the period;
P - receipt (purchase) of goods;
Vpr - other disposals;
Stocks of goods by destination:
1) Inventory of current storage.
2) Commodity stocks of long-term storage:
a) target inventory:
Stocks of goods for certain purposes;
Inventory of goods.
b) seasonal stocks of goods.
By units of measure:
1) In absolute terms:
a) natural (pieces, pairs);
b) cost (rubles, kopecks).
2) In relative terms (length per turn).
To size:
1) Maximum inventory.
2) Average inventory.
3) Minimum inventory.
By measurement time:
1) At the beginning of the year.
2) At the end of the year.
3) Average commodity stocks for a certain period (month, quarter, year).
Chapter 2 Methodological aspects of retail trade
2.1 Analysis of retail turnover
The analysis of retail turnover is carried out in order to identify the discrepancy between the prevailing ideas in the trading enterprise about the market and the real situation in order to make the necessary changes that will increase sales and profits. The analysis determines the correctness of the enterprise's assessment of its capabilities and the capabilities of competitors, as well as the correctness of approaches to market requirements.
The analysis of retail turnover is carried out in actual and comparable prices in the following sequence:
1. We study the volume of trade, dynamics, composition, structure, by methods of sale.
2. An index chain of indicators interconnection is built.
3. Factor analysis is done.
4. Reserves for growth are identified.
5. The possibilities of accounting for unused reserves are determined when planning the volume of sales for the future period.
The development of retail turnover is assessed using the following types of analysis:
A) time series analysis;
B) operational;
B) comparative;
D) strategic.
Time series analysis.
The dynamics of retail trade turnover is characterized by time series built over a number of past periods, taking into account price changes.
The turnover index in actual prices or in the prices of the corresponding years reflects the change in the analyzed period in the volume of sales and prices for goods sold.
A prerequisite for the reliability of the constructed time series is the expression of turnover in the same prices, i.e. calculation of the index of the physical volume of trade turnover, if the enterprise maintains quantitative and cost records.
Operational analysis.
The importance of operational analysis in the current unstable conditions of the transition period with a focus on profit, ensuring competitiveness has increased significantly. Operational analysis allows you to make timely adjustments to management decisions, which makes it possible to achieve the planned development goals.
Operational analysis is carried out according to the data of daily accounting of sales in value terms for the whole enterprise, its divisions. The number of purchases for the same period is determined by receipts. On the basis of daily accounting, cumulative accounting is made for five days, decades from delivery to delivery, in comparison with planned and calculated indicators, with a standard, with enterprises of the same type.
Operational accounting and cumulative analysis are kept in journals in a productive form. In the course of it, it is necessary to reflect the goals of the analysis and its tasks. Daily accounting can be determined:
improving or worsening sales from month to month;
what products (services) are sold well, what are bad;
in which part of the city (residence) certain products are in greatest demand;
whether there have been significant ups and downs in sales over the past year;
how many orders for the purchase of a product you received from the buyer in the last 12 months;
whether the total number of sales and orders is known not only in value, but also in kind;
what profit or loss brings the sale of a particular assortment;
what products go out of fashion;
what time of the year is conducive to sales, what is not;
products of which suppliers, with what design and what models buyers prefer in the first place;
how things are going in subordinate units;
how new products are sold, whether the old ones are losing the market.
Such accounting of sales allows not only to assess the state of sales, but also to identify the reasons for their decrease, which will make it possible to make the right management decisions to eliminate negative aspects, accelerate the turnover of goods and reduce the cost intensity of the trading process, and thereby increase the competitiveness of the company.
The main reasons for the decline in sales may be the actions of competitors; outdated assortment; assortment that does not meet customer demand; narrowness of the assortment (articles do not differ from each other); unsatisfactory service; inefficient operation of commercial services, poor quality and incomplete performance of commercial functions; the goods arrive late and not in such volumes as it is necessary for the development of trade.
In foreign practice, cumulative analysis is limited to a weekly cycle. In entrepreneurship, this cycle is considered the most successful, and it is associated with the timing of the payment of wages. In trade and the service sector, a week is an even more natural period of time. Each day of the week in terms of the volume of goods sold has a bright pronounced character which reflects many factors. On Monday, the fatigue accumulated over the weekend is accompanied by a decrease in consumer intentions, on Fridays - haste and fees, trips out of town. Shopping trips and depleted stocks of food in the pantry and refrigerators, a full wallet on the day of payday and an empty one the day before (as you know, abroad wage paid weekly, in our practice there is a 15-day interval).
High-quality operational accounting in the context of the assortment structure of retail turnover is possible with the help of computers and multi-counter cash registers, aggregated with special prefixes.
An important condition for ensuring the manageability of the process of development of retail turnover is the rhythm of the sale of goods for a given period of time. The requirements for rhythm are determined not only by the continuity of consumption and production, but also by the need to ensure the progressive fulfillment of the planned target, which will ensure the timely receipt of money for the settlement and payment of invoices for the supply of goods, the acceleration of turnover, and thereby profitability and competitiveness. Normally operating enterprises have a relatively constant turnover on the days of the week, taking into account the specifics of the sale of goods each day.
Rhythm coefficient is expressed by numbers from 0 to 1. Approaching the indicator to 0 indicates the non-rhythmic implementation, and to 1 - more rhythmic work of the retail trade enterprise.
A comparative analysis of retail turnover is carried out in order to assess the company's position in the market and identify reserves for sales growth in comparison with other enterprises, standards, with the achievements of the most successful competitors. The following indicators are usually compared: the total volume of retail trade turnover, the growth rate of comparable trade turnover, the share in the turnover of the main commodity groups, average turnover per seller and per employee, share of small-scale wholesale sales, average cost of purchases, forms of sale, mode of operation.
When conducting a comparative analysis, grouping methods and ranking are most often used. The grouping of enterprises is carried out depending on the product profile of the store, the degree of their specialization, forms of sale, sales area, forms of ownership.
Strategic analysis.
At the heart of the modern analysis of the work of enterprises lies the analysis of strategies. There are several approaches to conducting such an analysis: the analysis of strategies according to Mintzberg and the analysis of competition according to Porter.
According to Mintzberg, there are three different types of strategy development: the planned model, the entrepreneurial model, and the learning-by-experience model.
According to the planned model, the definition of a strategy is a deliberate, conscious and controlled process. This model views strategy as a planning process and assumes that strategy definition will be followed by strategy implementation.
In the entrepreneurial model, formulating a strategy is a semi-conscious process that takes place in the mind of an entrepreneurial leader.
The learning-by-experience model is based on the following points: defining a strategy for evolving and simultaneously recurring processes requires mutual feedback and receptivity; strategy is a model that is sensitive to the impact of external factors.
Understanding the above models showed that the success of the company depends on the skillful combination of all three models.
Porter's analysis of competition provides answers to the following questions:
1. What are your competitors' chances of success.
2. How this competitor is likely to react to the possible strategic moves of other competitors.
3. How would competitors react to possible multiple changes in the industry and the external environment.
4. Whom in the industry would you like to compete with and by what means.
Five forces of competition operate in the market: the penetration of new competitors; the threat of new products appearing on the market - substitutes produced according to new technology; buyer opportunities; supplier capabilities; competition between companies that have established themselves in the market.
The intensity of competition is determined by the following factors: big number competitors or approximate equality of forces; slow growth of the industry; a high level of fixed costs in the form of overheads or the cost of inventory; lack of uniqueness; quantitative jump in capacities; various kinds of competitors; high strategic importance; high exit barriers.
Suppliers put strong pressure on consumers, threatening to raise the price, reduce the quality of goods, in conditions of shortage, sell the goods to another buyer. Strong suppliers can reduce the profitability of retailing goods, since it is not always possible to cover the increase in costs with a significant increase in prices.
In relation to retail turnover, strategic analysis means: testing your strategy for competitiveness by evaluating the correctness of the application of various strategic models.
2.2 Planning of retail turnover. Sales forecast
The sales forecast includes both subjective and objective elements. Planning processes - determination of key factors of the economic situation, selection of initial information, analysis of the development of trade in the past period.
IN practical activities combines long-term, medium-term and short-term forecasts.
The long-term and medium-term forecast concerns strategic decisions: entering a new market, investing, cash flow plans, etc.
Short-term forecast is the firm's tactic. It concerns the plan of turnover, finance, the volume of purchases of goods.
The plan of retail turnover of a trading enterprise consists of the following sections: the sale (sale) of goods by total volume and individual commodity groups (commodity turnover structure); inventory and turnover; receipt of goods (commodity supply).
The volume and structure of retail trade turnover should ensure, on the one hand, the satisfaction of the needs of the population in goods in accordance with its demand, and on the other hand, the amount of profit necessary for the further development of the enterprise.
Forecasts are of two types: “from general to particular” (from volume to structure) and “from particular to general”. The “from specific to general” approach is more effective for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Forecasting methods can be divided into three groups: quantitative, qualitative and combinations of these two methods.
The choice of method depends on the period for which it is necessary to make a forecast, the ability to obtain the appropriate initial data, the requirements for forecast accuracy, the experience and recommendations of experts, the availability of computer equipment, and the necessary costs.
For planning retail turnover, the following methods of its calculation can be applied: taking into account the receipt of the necessary income, the location of the trading enterprise, based on the estimated resources, including commodity, changes in the service area, standards, based on effective demand.
The method of planning the turnover, taking into account the need for profit. This methodology is based on the idea of achieving such a volume of retail turnover that will provide the amount of profit necessary for self-financing, which remains with the enterprise after reimbursement of all expenses associated with its operation, payment of taxes and other obligatory payments.
Method of technical and economic calculations (normative method). In the practical application of the normative method, it is necessary to take into account the peculiarities of the work of a trading enterprise, the specifics of the trade and technological process and the population served, the intensity of the customer flow, market fluctuations inherent in the area of activity of this store.
The coefficient for the average purchase price is calculated as the ratio of the actual average purchase price for a store of this specialization to the average purchase price adopted when calculating the standard:
Ksp = Sf: Sn.
The planning of the trade turnover structure is carried out taking into account the draft plans of trade enterprises, the existing structure of goods for previous years, the state of commodity stocks, the ability to purchase goods from suppliers, changes in the number of buyers, the dynamics of the purchasing funds of the population served, average per capita consumption by product groups.
For goods for which demand is fully satisfied, the volume of sales is determined as the product of the achieved level of sales per capita times the number of consumers served, taking into account the expected changes in it.
If the resources of goods are limited, then a method is used to plan the volume of sales, taking into account the resource endowment, the state of inventory, the possibility of purchasing goods from non-traditional sources of income, the volume of unsatisfied demand, the possibility of switching demand to other interchangeable goods.
Chapter 3 Study of the activities of a particular enterprise
3.1 Organizational and economic characteristics of the activity of the enterprise Amira LLC for the 1st and 2nd half of 2009
1. General provisions.
Amira LLC was established in accordance with the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. The Company is a legal entity and builds its activities on the basis of this Charter and the current legislation of the Russian Federation. The Company is a commercial organization, owns its property and funds.
Location of Amira LLC: 305021, Russian Federation, Kursk region, Kursk, st. Shkolnaya, d.58, apt.19.
2. Goals and subject of activity.
The goals of the Company's activities are to expand the market for goods and services, as well as to make profit. The Company has the right to carry out any activities not prohibited by law. The subject of the Society's activity is:
1. Retail trade in cosmetics and perfumery products.
2. Wholesale of cosmetics and perfumes.
3. Retail sale of household chemicals, synthetic detergents, wallpaper and floor coverings.
4. Provision of services in the field of marketing.
5. Operations with real estate.
6. Production and sale of food products.
7. Production and sale of consumer goods.
3. Legal status of society.
The company is considered to be established as a legal entity from the moment of state registration.
In order to achieve the goals of its activities, the Company has the right to bear obligations, exercise any property and personal non-property rights, make any transactions permitted by law on its own behalf, be a plaintiff and defendant in court.
The Company exercises possession, use and disposal of its property at its own discretion. The property is taken into account on an independent balance sheet.
The Company has the right to use credit in rubles and foreign currency.
The company has the right to have subsidiaries and dependent companies with the rights of a legal entity.
The performance of work and the provision of services are carried out at prices and tariffs established by the Company independently.
The Company has the right to hire Russian and foreign specialists, independently determining the forms, amounts and types of remuneration.
4. Authorized capital.
The authorized capital of the Company determines the minimum amount of property that guarantees the interests of its creditors and amounts to 10,200 (Ten thousand two hundred) rubles, which is paid in property and distributed as follows:
The only share with a nominal value of 10,200 rubles, which is 100% of the authorized capital, belongs to the founder of the Company.
Total 10200 rubles - 100% of the authorized capital.
An increase in the authorized capital of the Company is allowed only after its full payment and can be carried out at the expense of property or at the expense of additional contributions from the founder of the Company, or at the expense of contributions from third parties.
The profit received by the Company is used to pay taxes and other obligatory payments, as well as to create its own funds.
According to the table of key performance indicators of the enterprise for the 1st and 2nd half of 2009. We saw that some indicators increased, while others decreased. Namely: the proceeds from sales (turnover) in the 1st half of the year is 150.7 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd - 349.1 thousand rubles, i.e. trade turnover increased by 198.4 thousand rubles; the cost price in the 1st half of the year is 123.4 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd it was 276.6 thousand rubles, i.е. increased by 153.2 thousand rubles; the share of the cost in the 1st half of the year is 81.9%, and in the 2nd - 79.2%, here the figure increased in the 1st half of the year by 2.7%; gross income in the 1st half of the year is 27.3 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd it amounted to 72.5 thousand rubles, i.e. increased by 45.2 thousand rubles; the level of gross income in the 1st half of the year is 18.1%, and in the 2nd - 20.8%, i.e. increased by 2.7%; distribution costs in the 1st half of the year amounted to 23.4 thousand rubles, in the 2nd they amounted to 64.9 thousand rubles, i.е. increased by 41.5 thousand rubles; the level of distribution costs in the 1st half of the year is 15.5%, and in the 2nd it was 18.6%, i.e. increased by 3.1%; profit from sales in the 1st half of the year is 3.9 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd it amounted to 7.6 thousand rubles, i.e. increased by 3.7 thousand rubles; return on sales in the 1st half of the year is 2.6%, in the 2nd it was 2.2%, i.е. decreased in the 2nd by 0.4%, and in the 1st increased by 0.4%; other income in the 1st half of the year amounted to 3.0 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd they amounted to 1.5 thousand rubles, i.е. reduced by 1.5 thousand rubles; other expenses in the 1st half of the year amounted to 5.8 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd - 6.2 thousand rubles, i.е. increased by 0.4 thousand rubles; book profit in the 1st half of the year amounted to 1.1 thousand rubles, in the 2nd it amounted to 2.9 thousand rubles, i.e. increased by 1.8 thousand rubles; net profit in the 1st half of the year is 1.1 thousand rubles, in the 2nd it was 2.9 thousand rubles, i.е. increased by 1.8 thousand rubles; average cost fixed assets in the 1st half of the year is 71.7 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd it amounted to 117.0 thousand rubles, i.e. increased by 45.3 thousand rubles; capital productivity in the 1st half of the year amounted to 2.1 rubles, and in the 2nd it is 3.0 rubles, i.e. increased by 0.9 rubles; the capital intensity in the 1st half of the year is 0.5 rubles, in the 2nd it was 0.3 rubles, i.e. it is reduced by 0.2 rubles compared to the 1st half of the year; the average cost of working capital in the 1st half of the year was 274.4 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd it amounted to 272.0 thousand rubles, i.е. reduced by 2.4 thousand rubles; the turnover of working capital in times in the 1st half of the year is 0.5 times, and in the 2nd - 1.3 times, i.e. increased by 0.8 times; the circulation time of working capital in days in the 1st half of the year is 327.8 days, and in the 2nd - 140.2 days, i.e. reduced by 187.6 days; the average number of employees in the 1st half of the year was 5 people, in the 2nd - also 5 people; labor productivity per worker in the 1st half of the year is 30.1 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd it was 69.8 thousand rubles, i.е. increased by 39.7 thousand rubles; the wage fund in the 1st half of the year is 20.4 thousand rubles, and in the 2nd - 60 thousand rubles, i.e. increased by 39.6 thousand rubles; the average salary of one employee in the 1st half of the year amounted to 0.7 rubles, and in the 2nd - 0.6 rubles, i.e. reduced by 0.1 rub.
In general, after analyzing all the performance indicators of the enterprise, we can say that there are more positive deviations in the table than negative ones.
3.2 Analysis of the retail turnover of the company "Amira" LLC for the period of the 1st and 2nd half of 2009.
The main factors affecting the volume of retail turnover can be divided into three groups: factors associated, firstly, with the provision of commodity resources and their use, secondly, with the number of employees and their labor productivity, and, thirdly, with the efficiency the use of retail space with a high culture of serving the population.
Commodity resources affect the volume of retail turnover through a change in the size of commodity stocks at the beginning and end of the reporting period, the receipt of goods and their other disposal. An increase in the initial balance and receipt of goods and a decrease in other disposal of goods and the balance of goods at the end of the period have a positive effect on the amount of sales, assuming that goods of good quality, the right assortment and in the required quantities enter the trading enterprise.
Using the store's inventory balance data, we will show how to calculate the impact of these indicators on the sales value by means of the differences between the 1st and 2nd half of the year.
| Indicators | 1st half of 2007 | 2nd half of 2007 | Deviation +, - |
| Stock of goods at the beginning of the year (Z1). | |||
| Receipt of goods (P). | |||
| Total in the parish (Z1 + P). | |||
| Sale of goods (P). | |||
| Other disposal of goods (B). | |||
| The balance of goods at the end of the year (Z2). | |||
| Total in consumption (P + B + Z2). |
According to the table, we see that retail turnover increased by 198.4 thousand rubles compared to the first half of the year. The plan was overfulfilled due to an increase in commodity stocks at the beginning of the year compared with the standard by 26 thousand rubles. The volume of trade had a positive effect on the fact that the supply of goods increased by 176.4 thousand rubles compared to the 1st half of the year. But the balance of goods at the end of the year leads to a decrease in turnover.
Based on these calculations, we can conclude that the store, in order to increase turnover, had to achieve the fulfillment of the plan for the receipt of goods, as well as bring the balance of goods at the end of the year to the established standard.
The analysis of the fulfillment of the plan of retail turnover begins with the study of the uniformity of the fulfillment of the plan during the year by quarters and months for the store as a whole and reveals changes in this indicator compared to the previous period. The goal is to identify the reasons for non-fulfillment and factors that contribute to an increase in the sale of goods, to assess the correctness of the distribution of the volume of turnover among stores and branches.
Analysis of the implementation of the plan for the turnover of the store LLC "Amira" for six months and quarters
According to the table, it can be seen that the turnover plan was overfulfilled compared to the first half of the year by 86.2 thousand rubles. in the 1st quarter, and in the 2nd quarter, the turnover plan was overfulfilled by 112.2 thousand rubles. compared to the first half.
3.3 Planning of retail trade turnover of Amira LLC for the 1st and 2nd half of 2009
The validity of a retail sales plan can also be tested using a critical selling point, sometimes referred to as the profitability threshold. It does not coincide with the period when the company begins to incur losses, but with the period of time when the income received will not cover fixed costs.
Kt \u003d T Ips: (Iopr + Iops)
where T is the estimated planned turnover; IOPS - variable distribution costs.
Kt \u003d 150.7 12.3: (207.9 + 12.3) \u003d 8.4 million rubles.
The higher the difference between the actual revenue of a trading enterprise and the revenue at a critical point, the higher the margin of financial strength and financial stability of the enterprise. The margin of financial safety can be calculated by the formula:
Zfp \u003d Tr - Tk / Tr 100%
where Тр is the planned estimated turnover; Tk - turnover at the critical point. Stock financial stability of the enterprise LLC "Amira" will be:
Zfp = 150.7 - 8.4 / 150.7 100% = 94.4%.
Consequently, a decrease in turnover by more than 94.4% of the projected volume means a decrease in solvency for the enterprise.
Conclusion
Having written a term paper in three chapters, we found out: what is retail turnover, what is its essence, what is the composition, the value of turnover. It turned out that this indicator has a wide national economic significance. Through it, there is a change in the forms of value of consumer goods created in the production process. Trade turnover significantly affects the money circulation in the country and the stability of the currency. Also, the turnover can be used to calculate the labor intensity, the cost of resources.
Conducted retail trade analysis. It is carried out in order to identify the inconsistency of the prevailing ideas in the trading enterprise about the market with the real situation in order to make the necessary changes. The analysis determines the correctness of the enterprise's assessment of its capabilities and the capabilities of competitors, as well as the correctness of approaches to market requirements. And also found out what each type of analysis is.
Retail turnover planning (sales forecast) includes both subjective and objective elements. Planning processes - determination of key factors of the economic situation, selection of initial information.
According to the work done in the first two chapters, it turned out that from the point of view of a systematic approach, retail trade turnover must be considered in three aspects: as a system of relations of social production; as a system of relations for the exchange of monetary incomes of the population for consumer goods; as a feedback system with production.
In the third chapter, the activities of the trading company "Amira" LLC for the 1st and 2nd half of 2009 were studied. First, the organizational and economic characteristics of this enterprise were given, i.e. general provisions from the Charter, goals and subject of activity are considered, the legal status of the company, the authorized capital. Then we calculated the table of the main indicators of the enterprise's activity for the 1st and 2nd half of the year, and found out that some indicators increased in the 2nd half of the year compared to the 1st, while others decreased.
Conducted an analysis of the retail turnover of the enterprise "Amira" LLC in order to identify the reasons for non-fulfillment and factors contributing to an increase in the sale of goods. According to the calculations in the table, we saw that the turnover plan was overfulfilled, which means that the proceeds from the sale of goods at the enterprise increased.
In another table, the stock of goods at the beginning of the year, the receipt of goods, the sale of goods, the balance of goods at the end of the year were calculated. According to this table, the turnover also increased compared to the 1st half of the year.
When planning the retail turnover of the trading company Amira LLC, a critical sales point was calculated equal to 8.4 million rubles. and a margin of financial stability, which is 94.4%.
In order to increase the revenue of this enterprise, it is necessary that as many goods as possible be sold. The number of employees at the enterprise, the labor productivity of each employee should grow.
Retail turnover is the most important indicator of a trading enterprise. It characterizes the volume of activity of the enterprise, the volume of gross income depends on it.
Bibliography
1. Valevich R.P. "Economics of a Trade Enterprise".
2. Avanesov Yu.A. "Economics of trade and service enterprises".
3. Solomatin A.N. "Economics and organization of the activity of a trading enterprise".
4. Grebnev A.I. "Economics of a Trade Enterprise".
5. Lebedeva S.N. "Economics of a Trade Enterprise".
6. Raisberg R.G. "Course of Economics".
7. Smirnov A.D. "Market economy".
8. Dine A., Buquerel F. "Economics".
9. Nikolaeva M.A., Kartashova L.V. "Economy".
10. Sergeev I.V. "Enterprise economy".
11. Emelyanova T.V. "Enterprise Economics".
12. Kravchenko L.I. "Analysis of economic activity".
13. Treatov A.S. "Enterprise economy".
14. Safonov N.A. "Enterprise economy".
15. Savitskaya G.V. "Analysis of economic activity".
16. Borisov N.S. "Analysis of economic activity".
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Optimization and forecasting of turnover volumes
INTRODUCTION
turnover forecasting retail
With the development of scientific and technological progress, forecasting technologies have advanced far enough. Employees of large companies have long known the methods of neural network forecasting, fuzzy logic, and others. The corresponding software packages are available, but in practice most of the existing tasks can be successfully solved using more accessible methods for the average user. Such as operations research method, construction of econometric models, trend analysis, simulation modeling and others. And for the implementation and application of algorithms, you can use the well-known MS Excell application software package.
IN last years the issue of qualitative forecasting is of great interest, due to the fact that for large companies it is not enough to have information about the current state and carry out only operational activities to maintain work. The basis for successful functioning in market conditions is strategic planning. Assessment of the future state of affairs in the current work allows you to make radical decisions that allow you to bring the business to a new qualitative level, and the turnover and its volume acts as one of the key performance indicators of the sales company.
In this regard, the relevance of studying forecasting algorithms, analysis of factors affecting its volume, and subsequent optimization is beyond doubt in terms of the necessary and sufficient conditions for high-quality work.
The purpose of the work is to systematize knowledge on the chosen topic, develop a mathematical model of forecasting and apply it in a particular enterprise. Analyze the factors influencing the volume of trade and develop possible ways to optimize trade in the future.
To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set:
a) Justify the concept of retail turnover and the main methods of forecasting;
b) Consider the essence of trend models to identify the most important provisions and parameters for forecasting the volume of trade;
c) Build a prediction model
d) Analyze the main factors affecting the turnover of the company.
e) Develop a proposal for optimizing the forecast of trade volumes.
The objects of research are the essence, principles and methods of building forecasting models and optimizing the results obtained.
The subject of the study is the possibility of applying the theories and forecasting models in practice of a particular enterprise.
The theoretical and methodological basis of the thesis work is based on theoretical and methodological approaches and attitudes developed by economic science, the use of systemic and comparative analysis.
The structure of the thesis: The explanatory note consists of an introduction, three sections, a conclusion, a bibliography of the main literature used.
1. THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF ACCOUNTING FOR THE MOVEMENT OF GOODS
1.1 Economic content of retail trade
Retail turnover is a key indicator by which the activity of enterprises and retail trade organizations is assessed. So, their main goal is to maximize profits, and, in turn, it is the turnover that is the necessary condition without which the main goal of commercial organizations is unattainable.
Trade turnover should be considered as the result of the activity of a trading enterprise - its economic effect. In this case, the main task is profit maximization, which makes it necessary to continuously increase the volume of trade as the main factor in the growth of profits and, to some extent, reduce distribution costs and wage costs.
Trade turnover has a quantitative characteristic - these are sales volumes in monetary terms and qualitative - this is the structure of trade turnover. The relations that arise at the final stage of the transition of goods to the sphere of personal consumption, on the one hand, characterize the cash proceeds of a commercial enterprise, and, on the other hand, the amount of expenditures of the population for the purchase of goods.
In turn, retail turnover is understood as the sale of consumer goods for cash, regardless of their distribution channels.
Retail turnover not only reflects the proceeds from sales in monetary terms, it can also characterize the efficiency of using the resources of a trade organization, as well as the amount of sales costs.
So, if the turnover is an indicator that reflects the final result of the economic activity of a trading enterprise (organization), then its comparison with the amount of resources expended (labor, commodity, material, financial) will give an understanding of the effectiveness of their use, since in a generalized form, the efficiency indicator is the ratio results and costs.
Thus, the volume of retail turnover is a key indicator of the effectiveness of a trade organization. Information about its composition can be used in the calculation of labor intensity, capital intensity, cost intensity, capital intensity of resources and the possibility of its optimization. The obtained indicators make it possible to determine the current state of the enterprise, as well as to identify levers of influence on turnover that can ensure an increase in the volume of a key indicator, without attracting additional resources using its own capacities.
In addition, the development of retail trade turnover is closely related to such economic indicators as demand, receipt of goods, inventory, profit, number of employees, wage costs.
It should be noted that such a ratio in the development of these indicators, which is presented in the models of strategic regulation of trade turnover, is considered optimal.
1.2 Methodological approaches to the analysis of turnover
Analysis of retail turnover is a prerequisite for its qualitative forecasting for the next period and determining the profitability of the organization, as well as its financial condition. The economic feasibility of subsequent forecast calculations depends on the accuracy of the analysis, on the thoroughness of the conclusions about the work.
Any analysis of the activity of a trading entity must begin with the allocation of the place of the organization in the total turnover in this segment in the market. The need is determined in determining the value of this organization in meeting the demand for goods of buyers.
If a trade organization allocates for itself forecast (or planned) indicators for the volume of sales of goods, then it is necessary to establish the level (%) of their implementation, showing how the organization achieves its goal of selling goods. It should be noted that it is important to determine the absolute amount of overfulfillment or underfulfillment of the forecast indicators for the sale of products. Here, this indicator is defined as the difference between the actual and projected turnover.
Also, when analyzing the fulfillment of the predicted volume of retail turnover of goods, one should take into account the change in prices that could possibly have occurred over the required time period. Thus, if during a given time period, retail prices for goods increased or decreased, then the turnover is considered not only in current, but also in comparable prices.
For example, if the assessment of the predicted indicators of the volume of goods turnover is made for the year, then their implementation should be analyzed for shorter time periods: by quarters or months. This will mainly make it possible to calculate the rhythm of the execution of the volume of sales.
Estimation of the volume of turnover of goods begins with the calculation of rhythm. The analysis of the uniformity of the performance of the turnover is carried out in various ways.
So, one of the most common is the calculation of the share of each quarter in the annual turnover; monthly - in annual and quarterly turnover; day; five days and decades - and monthly turnover.
Rhythm coefficient (1) can be determined by the ratio of the amount of actual turnover within the amount of the forecast to the amount of the forecasted turnover, using the following formula:
where Kp - coefficient of uniformity;
Nf - actual turnover, but not higher than the forecast amount;
Np - projected turnover;
i - number of days, months, quarters, varying from 1 to n.
Rhythm coefficient ranges from 0 to 1; the closer it is to 0, the more rhythmically the sale of goods is carried out.
The uniformity of the execution of the amount predicted by the sale of products can be determined by calculating the coefficient of variation. To do this, the standard deviation is calculated using the following formula:
where x - implementation of the sales forecast for the quarter, month, day;
Average performance for the period;
n is the number of quarters, months, days, etc.
After obtaining the standard deviation, the coefficient of variation is determined:
The coefficient of variation (v) shows the degree of deviation in percentage terms of the fulfillment of the volume of goods turnover from the average level.
The uniformity of the volume of goods turnover should be calculated not only for the company as a whole, but also for individual structural units that are part of the trading organization for a certain time period. It is important to note that it is impossible to reasonably draw conclusions about the implementation of the turnover according to average and summary indicators, since shortcomings in the activities of some structural divisions (branches) may be hidden behind high indicators for the organization. Moreover, organizational and structural changes may be made during the evaluation period, which will necessitate an appropriate adjustment in the volume of retail trade, because the analysis must be carried out for a comparable number of business entities.
When assessing the performance of the volume of turnover by some divisions, it is very important to determine the uniformity coefficient.
You can use the following formula to determine the uniformity factor:
where OH is the underfulfillment of the projected turnover by all departments;
H is the number of units analyzed;
In addition, the analysis of retail turnover also contains indicators of the dynamics of the sale of goods over a long period of time.
The study of the dynamics of turnover should be carried out to assess the compliance of the development of the turnover of a trade organization with the total trend in the development of the turnover of a settlement.
In addition, an assessment of the dynamics of trade turnover makes it possible to identify trends in the development of trade and patterns of consumption of individual goods, as well as prospects for changes in trade turnover in general and for individual product groups. On the basis of the identified patterns of change in trade turnover, it is possible to predict its development.
When analyzing the dynamics of trade turnover, its size in the reporting period is compared with the previous (main) period. The choice of the basis for comparison is dictated by the established assessment objectives. So, as a result of the comparison, the chain and basic growth rates and the increase in trade turnover, the absolute increase, as well as the average annual growth rate are calculated.
The average annual growth rate can be calculated using the geometric mean:
where T is the average annual growth rate;
(n - 1) - the number of members of the series, with the exception of the base period;
Turnover of the initial period;
Yn is the turnover of the final, last period.
Comparing the degree of implementation of the turnover and its intensity over a number of years or for some trading divisions, the absolute value of one percent increase or decrease in retail turnover is used. This indicator is the ratio of its growth in monetary terms to the growth expressed as a percentage.
Having a dynamic series of trade turnover, it is necessary to calculate the key trend of trade turnover over a sufficiently long time period and establish how trade turnover can develop in the future, in other words, to identify a forecast of the total volume of trade turnover at the current growth rate. This calculation is called extrapolation and is used in forecasting turnover.
1.3 Features of forecasting turnover and ways to optimize it
Forecasting - this is a process based on a scientific study of a time series or values of the past time interval, the result of which is a model of a future event, taking into account the factors influencing the situation. In turn, the result of forecasting, as a process, is a forecast - a scientifically based judgment about the state of the object of forecasting in the future, the main difference from the hypothesis of which can be called the presence of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the object, as well as greater accuracy and reliability.
Forecasting turnover is an integral part successful work in a market economy and free competition. This, first of all, is due not only to the need to have an idea of the current situation, but also to the ability to foresee the future for tactical and strategic planning of actions that are designed to increase trade.
When forming a forecast, we consciously rely on the premise “what will happen in the future can be determined by the past” or “there are significant patterns in the turnover of the previous period that can be used in the future”, regardless of which methods are used for forecasting: moving average or casual (causal) methods.
So, let's consider the main generally accepted methods of forecasting turnover:
a) expert;
b) Extrapolation;
c) Relational correlation methods;
The method of expert assessments (expert) is based on a subjective assessment of the current time period and development prospects. It is advisable to use it for market assessments, especially in cases where it is not possible to obtain direct information about any phenomenon or process.
Forecasts of the volume of trade turnover with the participation of experts can be obtained in one of three forms:
a) point forecast;
b) Interval forecast;
c) Prognosis of the probability distribution.
A point forecast is one of the simplest, as it carries a smaller amount of information than others. As a rule, in most cases, when evaluating the results of the obtained point forecast, it is implied that this method may be erroneous, and the methods do not provide for the calculation of inaccuracy. Therefore, in practice, two other methods are more often used - the interval method and the probability distribution method.
An interval forecast does not indicate the uniqueness of a possible predictive indicator or a vector of values, it includes an interval that largely depends on the confidence level, it is worth noting that the higher the value of the confidence level, the wider the range of possible values in which the resulting forecast will be. An example of such
The following statement can serve as a forecast: "the volume of goods turnover in the coming year will be 130-150 million rubles."
The probability distribution forecast implies that the actual shipments fall into one of the interval groups that have a certain probability. Thus, it should be noted that the actual value may not fall into any of the intervals, but forecasters believe that this is unlikely (Table 1).
Table 1 - Probability distribution for interval groups
The second and third groups of methods (extrapolation, relational correlation methods) are based on the analysis of quantitative indicators, but, nevertheless, differ significantly from each other.
Methods of analysis and forecasting of dynamic series (extrapolation) - the study of indicators isolated from each other, where each of them consists of two parts: a forecast of a deterministic component and a forecast of a random component. The development of the first forecast does not cause difficulties if the main development trend and its further extrapolation are determined. The prediction of a random component causes some difficulties, since its (extrapolation) appearance can only be estimated with a certain probability. Often, the extrapolation forecasting model includes 3 components and is written as follows:
where is the forecast value of the time series;
Um - average value of the time series, trend;
Seasonal component;
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V is a random component of forecast deviation.
At the heart of casual methods (relational) is an attempt to identify factors that show the behavior of the predicted indicator. Thus, the search for factors leads to the actual economic and mathematical modeling - the construction of a model of the behavior of an economic object, which takes into account the development of interrelated phenomena and processes. It should be noted that the use of multi-factor forecasting requires solving the complex problem of choosing factors, which cannot be solved by a purely statistical method, but is associated with the need for a deep analysis of the economic content of the phenomenon or process under consideration.
Thus, the forecasting of trade turnover in a market economy and free competition is an integral part of successful work in the market. This is due to the need not only to have an idea of the current situation, but also to be able to look into the future for tactical and strategic planning of actions aimed at increasing trade turnover.
Thus, the essence of retail trade is expressed by economic relations associated with the exchange of cash funds of the population for purchased goods. The volume of retail turnover acts as the main indicator of the effectiveness of a trade organization and knowledge of its composition can be used by analysts to calculate labor intensity, capital intensity, cost intensity, capital intensity of resources and the possibility of its optimization. With the help of these indicators, it is possible, as a first approximation, to determine the need of the enterprise for additional resources to ensure the growth of turnover.
The result of forecasting, regardless of the method, is a formed forecast of the future, on the basis of which it is necessary to make management decisions that consist of many alternatives.
2. PREDICTION OF COMMODITY TURNOVER ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE COMPANY CJSC "TANDER"
2.1 Organizational and economic characteristics of Tander CJSC
Full corporate name - Closed Joint Stock Company "Tander". The abbreviated corporate name is Tander CJSC.
Location of the organization: Russian Federation, Krasnodar, st. Levonevsky, 185.
The Company is a legal entity, has its own seals, letterheads and stamps with its own name, as well as a trademark, settlement and other accounts in banking institutions.
Company mission: "We work to improve the well-being of our customers by reducing their cost of purchasing quality consumer goods, conserving company resources, improving technology and adequately rewarding employees."
The company's goal: "Ensuring a high degree of viability and competitiveness of the company by maintaining life support systems at the required level, timely and high-quality adaptation of the service provided to the requirements of the changing legal order and consumer priorities."
History of the company: the parent company of the Magnit chain of stores, CJSC Tander, was organized in January 1994 as a wholesale supplier of household chemicals and cosmetics. Since 1997, active promotion to the food segment of the market has begun. In 1998, Magnit opened its first self-service store in the city of Krasnodar. For several months, the company has been actively conquering the market in the south of Russia by opening more and more stores. At the beginning of 1999, the company strengthened its leading position and began to enter the regional level. Already in 2000, the company's management decided to reorganize the work - as a result, all stores were transferred to the discounter format and united under the single Magnit brand.
Between 2001 and 2005 the company showed strong growth at the regional level and took first place in the country in terms of the number of stores - 1500 and became the second in terms of revenue in Russia.
Since 2006, the chain has been developing a new retail format - the federal hypermarket chain "Magnit".
Main subject of activity:
a) Retail sale of food and non-food products;
b) Wholesale, intermediary and commercial activities;
c) Organization of direct relations with enterprises-suppliers of products;
d) Participation in exhibitions, auctions and other events.
The range of products sold: wholesale of canned food, dairy products, edible oils, soft drinks, alcoholic beverages, sugar, confectionery, chocolate, coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, fish and seafood, finished products, baby (dietary) food, flour products , flour, pasta, cereals, salt, household chemicals.
Retail sale in non-specialized stores: frozen foods, foodstuffs, including drinks and tobacco products.
The company "Magnit" is the absolute leader in the number of grocery stores and the territory of their location. As of December 31, 2014, the company's network included 9,711 stores, including: 8,344 convenience stores, 190 hypermarkets, 97 Magnit Family stores and 1,080 Magnit Cosmetic stores.
In addition, Magnit retail chain stores are located in 2,108 settlements Russia. The store coverage area occupies an impressive territory, which stretches from west to east from Pskov to Nizhnevartovsk, and from north to south from Arkhangelsk to Vladikavkaz. Most stores are located in the Southern, North Caucasian, Central and Volga Federal Districts.
Also, Magnit stores are located in the North-Western, Ural and Siberian districts. Stores of the Magnit retail chain organize their activities both in large cities and in small settlements. It is worth noting that about two-thirds of the company's stores operate in cities with a population of less than 500,000 people.
The Magnit company carries out a successful delivery of goods to stores, storage thanks to a powerful logistics system. The continuous delivery of products to all stores of the retail network allows for its own fleet of about 6,000 vehicles.
According to 2014 data, the Magnit network is the leading retail company in terms of sales in Russia. Thus, the company's revenue for 2014 amounted to 763,527.25 million rubles.
In addition, the Magnit retail chain is the largest employer in Russia. According to the latest data, the total number of employees of the company is more than 260,000 people. The company has been repeatedly awarded the title of "Attractive Employer of the Year".
CJSC "Tander" uses a linear-functional structure. Such an organization of the workflow implies a combination of linear and functional management.
The organizational structure of Tander CJSC is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 - Organizational structure of CJSC "Tander"
Functional links in this structure lose the ability to make decisions and direct management of lower units. They take part in setting tasks, preparing decisions, assisting the line manager in the performance of individual management functions. So, for example, the analytical service is engaged in identifying the potential for increasing the efficiency of the Distribution Centers (warehouses) and increasing productivity at minimal labor and cost through a comparative analysis of reporting. After receiving the calculation and economic substantiation of the decisions made, the results are agreed with the Deputy Director for Operations.
The linear-functional structure has many years of experience in its application and is the most rational in its structure, since the functional units fulfill the clearly set goals of the higher-level management. Due to such a strict hierarchy, the most effective control over the fulfillment of the set goals is achieved. All information passes back through a large number of functional managers, due to which a more complete vision of the problem is formed. At the same time, in addition to positive qualities, there are a number of negative ones in this structure:
a) Departments may be more interested in solving their own problems of the department than in the general goals of the company;
b) Managers who are in the highest hierarchy, as a result of control over various areas, lose the proper level of competence;
c) Sufficiently slow transmission and processing of information due to many approvals.
Thus, for the organization of work, control, motivation and planning, the company has a linear - functional structure, which has long established itself as the most effective. Based on the foregoing, the following advantages of a linear-functional structure can be distinguished. First, it is effective in solving repetitive routine tasks. Secondly, it creates the most favorable basis for the formation of various regulations, thereby ensuring the stability of work. Thirdly, it is quite flexible if it is necessary to expand the range of tasks to be solved. In conclusion, this structure allows you to get highly competent employees in a certain area, due to a clear distribution of responsibilities.
2.2 Analysis of the composition, structure, implementation of the plan and dynamics of trade
As a result of the analysis of the turnover, the following are determined:
a) The amount of change in the amount of turnover of goods of the previous year compared to the reporting year:
Where? UV (UM) - the amount of change in turnover;
The amount of turnover of goods in the reporting year;
The amount of goods turnover last year;
Table 2 - Analysis of the change in the amount of turnover of goods of the retail network of CJSC "Tander"
|
The amount of turnover of goods thousand rubles. |
basic |
|||
b) The growth rate of the amount of turnover of goods in the reporting year compared to the previous year in percent:
where %P (Y) - the growth rate of the amount of turnover of goods in percent;
The amount of turnover of goods in the reporting year;
The amount of goods turnover last year;
The growth rate of the amount of turnover of goods in the reporting year compared to the previous year:
Where? - the growth rate of the amount of turnover of goods in percent.
In order to consider and visually analyze the dynamics of the volume of trade turnover of ZAO Tander, we calculate the chain and basic growth rates and growth by the initial year from a series of dynamics and by stages from year to year and present the results in Table 3.
Table 3 - Analysis of the dynamics of the amount of turnover of goods of the company CJSC "Tander"
|
Rates of growth, % |
Growth rate, % |
|||||
|
Basic |
basic |
|||||
The dynamics of trade turnover is graphically represented in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - Dynamics of trade turnover of CJSC Tander
From the obtained table 3 it can be seen that for the analyzed period the amount of turnover of goods of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander" increased by 703,626,049 thousand rubles, or by 1071%. There is a clear trend of an annual increase in the volume of trade. Thus, in the reporting year, compared with the previous year, the volume of trade increased by 32%.
Calculate the geometric mean for the analysis of the average annual rate of change in the amount of goods turnover:
where - the average annual rate of change in the amount of turnover of goods in percent;
The amount of turnover of goods in the reporting year in monetary terms;
The amount of goods turnover in the first year of the dynamics series in monetary terms;
n is the number of years in the time series;
For CJSC Tander, the average annual growth rate of the amount of turnover of goods was 36%
*100% = *100% =136%
Let's analyze the uniformity of the implementation of the plan for the turnover of goods of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander" for certain periods of time, using the calculation of the uniformity coefficient:
where P is the coefficient of uniformity in percent;
V - coefficient of variation in the implementation of the plan for the turnover of goods for each period in percent.
where is the standard deviation of the implementation of the plan for the turnover of goods for each period in percent;
The average percentage of the plan for the turnover of goods.
where is the percentage of the implementation of the turnover plan for a certain period.
To calculate the uniformity coefficient, we will develop tables with initial data on planned and actual volumes of trade for 2013 by quarters. We get the values of the standard deviation, as well as the coefficient of variation.
Table 4 - Calculation of the uniformity coefficient for the implementation of the plan based on the initial data on the volume of trade turnover of the company CJSC "Tander" by quarters for 2013
|
Quarters |
The volume of trade, thousand rubles. |
% completed |
||||
|
1 quarter |
||||||
|
2 quarter |
||||||
|
3 quarter |
||||||
|
4 quarter |
||||||
|
5 quarter |
||||||
Having received the data from table 4, we calculate the standard deviation of the implementation of the goods turnover plan and the coefficient of variation:
Table 5 - Initial data for calculating the coefficient of uniformity in fulfilling the plan for the turnover of goods of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander" by quarters for 2014
|
The volume of trade, thousand rubles. |
% completed |
|||||
|
1 quarter |
||||||
|
2 quarter |
||||||
|
3 quarter |
||||||
|
4 quarter |
||||||
According to the data obtained from table 5, we calculate the standard deviation of the implementation of the turnover plan and the coefficient of variation:
The calculated coefficient of uniformity is 97.5% (100% - 2.5%), therefore, in 2013 the planned turnover of goods by quarters was carried out evenly.
According to the calculations in Table 4 and Table 5, the uniformity coefficient for the implementation of the turnover plan for 2014 (96.8%) compared with the uniformity coefficient for 2013 (97.5%) decreased by 0.7%.
We will analyze the actual turnover on a quarterly basis to determine the uniformity coefficient by years in the period from 2013-2014.
Table 6 - Initial data for calculating the coefficient of uniformity of the turnover of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander" by quarters for 2013-2014
According to table 6, we calculate the standard deviation of turnover and the coefficient of variation:
The calculated coefficient of uniformity is 94.5% (100% - 5.5%), therefore, in 2014 and 2013, the actual turnover of goods by quarter was carried out evenly.
Analysis of the turnover of goods should be carried out not only by the total change in the turnover of the company, but also by structural divisions.
As a result of analyzing the structure of the turnover of goods, the fulfillment of sales plans for departments, sections, product groups is determined, it is possible to determine the trend of their turnover, to identify the share of sales in the total volume of turnover of goods. To do this, we calculate the coefficient of absolute structural shifts in the turnover of goods to a trading enterprise:
where is the coefficient of absolute structural shifts in the turnover of goods, expressed as a percentage;
The share of the turnover of goods of a certain group in the total volume of turnover in percent;
n is the number of commodity groups.
Table 7 - Analysis of the structure of the turnover of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander"
|
Product group |
Share in turnover, % |
||||
|
Meat - poultry |
|||||
|
Gastronomic goods |
|||||
|
Groceries |
|||||
|
Fruits vegetables |
|||||
|
confectionery |
|||||
|
Wine - vodka products |
|||||
|
Other goods |
|||||
After analyzing the resulting table 7, we can conclude that the sale of meat and poultry occupies the largest share - about 20% of the total turnover of goods. The second place is occupied by alcoholic products and somewhat smaller gastronomy and fish, which together occupy half of the total mass of goods sold.
If we compare 2014 and 2013, compared to 2013, the share of sales of other goods decreased by 1.0%, the share of meat - poultry, gastronomic products, groceries increased by 0.6%, fruits - vegetables - by 0, 1%, the share of turnover of fish and wine and vodka products decreased by 0.4%, confectionery products - by 0.1%. In general, there were no colossal structural shifts in the turnover of goods, as evidenced by the coefficient of absolute structural shifts, equal to 0.6%.
Thus, the volume of turnover of goods of the trade enterprise CJSC Tander increased by 703,626,049 thousand rubles, or by 1071% from 2006 to 2014. There is a clear trend of an annual increase in the volume of trade. In the reporting year 2014 compared to 2013, the volume of sales of goods increased by 32%, and the average annual growth rate is 36%. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the coefficient of uniformity in the implementation of the plan in 2014 decreased by 0.7% from 97.5% to 96.8% in 2014. From Table 7 it can be seen that in 2014 the maximum share in the turnover of goods of CJSC "Tander" was occupied by the turnover for the sale of meat - poultry - 19.9%, alcoholic beverages - 18.8%, fish - 15%. In comparison with the previous year, the share of sales of other goods decreased by 1.0%, the share of meat - poultry, gastronomic products, groceries increased by 0.6%, fruits - vegetables - by 0.1%, the share of turnover decreased fish and wine and vodka products - by 0.4%, confectionery products - by 0.1%. In general, there were no significant changes in the structure of trade turnover in the trade enterprise, as evidenced by the coefficient of absolute structural shifts, equal to 0.6%.
2.3 Building a turnover forecast model
One of the key practical applications of the statistical study of trends in dynamics and deviations is to predict, on its basis, possible estimates of the magnitude of the trait under study.
Let's give an example of forecasting turnover based on the volume dynamics for 1 sq. three years by week.
Table 8 - Comparison of the volume of trade turnover of CJSC "Tander" by months for three years thousand rubles
Let's build a series of dynamics relative to the base week, using the base growth rate as a percentage.
where Tp.base - Growth rate.
Compared row level.
The level of the row taken as the base.
This indicator characterizes the ratio of two levels of the series and can be expressed in coefficients or as a percentage, in our case as a percentage.
Table 9 - Dynamics of sales relative to the base week
If the growth rates of the levels are approximately constant, you can calculate the average growth rate as the arithmetic average and multiply it successively by the base value of the level of the series as many times as the number of periods the series is extrapolated to. Let's carry out a visual analysis of the growth rate of the volume of trade in accordance with Figure 3.
Figure 3 - Growth rates of trade turnover over 3 years
For the studied series of years, weekly fluctuations in growth relative to the base week remain more or less constant. Let's multiply the results obtained by the actual week of 2015 to get a forecast for 1 quarter.
Table 10 - Forecasting results for the average increase relative to the base week
Having carried out a retrospective analysis of the forecasting results, we obtained a deviation of the forecast from the fact for the 2nd week of 3.7%, which indicates the comparability of the dynamics of past years and the current trend in the volume of trade. It should be borne in mind that the shorter the forecast lead time, the more reliable the extrapolation results.
Since this method is rigidly deterministic, highly dependent on the base week for forecasting, which may result in less accurate forecast in case of an abnormally high or low week in terms of turnover. In this connection, we turn to another forecasting method - building an additive model that takes into account seasonal fluctuations in the company's turnover.
Let's give an example of building a forecast of turnover for the whole company.
There are data on the total turnover in rubles for a period of 3 years on a quarterly basis.
Table 11 - Volume of trade turnover by quarters
|
The volume of trade turnover thousand rubles |
|||
When building an additive forecast model, the dependent variable will be the volume of trade, and the independent variable will be the time t.
Let's depict the series graphically and build a diagram based on the initial data.
Figure 4 - The volume of trade, million rubles
Figure 4 shows that in the 4th quarter the shipment grows every year, so there is a suspicion that there is a seasonal component in the series. The amplitude of fluctuations is preserved and is constant, which allows us to conclude that for forecasting it is necessary to apply an additive model with constant seasonal fluctuations
To determine the seasonal component, we use the moving average method. To do this, we need to sum the levels of the series for every 4 quarters with a shift of 1 square. Thus, we get the annual volume of trade. Then we divide the total volume by (n), the length of the period, in our case 4. We find the centered moving average as an average for 2 square meters. from the previously obtained moving average for 4 sq. The estimate of the seasonal component will be obtained by the difference between the actual shipment and the centered moving one.
Table 12 - Finding a trend and a seasonal component in a series
|
Volume of trade turnover, million rubles |
Total for 4 quarters |
moving average |
centered |
seasonal component estimate |
||||
At the next step, we need to calculate the seasonal impact on the volume of trade in each quarter; for practical implementation, we transfer the results of the seasonal component S to auxiliary table 13. We calculate the adjustment factor using the formula:
where n is the length of the period.
For our example:
The adjusted values of the seasonal component are calculated as the difference between the average value of the seasonal component and the adjustment factor
Table 13 - Finding the adjusted seasonal component (S)
|
Seasonal Adjusted Component (S) |
||||||
|
Correction factor |
After finding the seasonal component for each quarter, it is necessary to determine the forecast values of turnover for the future period, taking into account the seasonal component, which will be summed up with the received trend in accordance with the additive structure of the time series
To find the trend, we will use the Excel analysis package and build a regression equation:
Table 14 Using the analytical tool in Excel to find the parameters of the trend equation
|
Regression statistics |
||||
|
Multiple R |
||||
|
R-square |
||||
|
Normalized R-square |
||||
|
standard error |
||||
|
Observations |
||||
|
Analysis of variance |
||||
|
Regression |
||||
|
Odds |
standard error |
t-statistic |
||
|
Y-intersection |
||||
|
Variable X 1 |
In our case, the coefficients = 80071.097, = 10804.32. After finding the coefficients, we substitute the values of future periods into the regression equation to obtain the trend value.
The obtained values are corrected taking into account the seasonal component. Thus, we have received a forecast of trade turnover for 2015 (Table 15).
Table 15 - Forecast of trade turnover for 2015
|
Volume of trade turnover, million rubles |
|||
Graphically represent the results of forecasting in the figure
Figure 5 - Forecast of trade turnover for 2015
Thus, after conducting a retrospective analysis of the forecasting results based on the growth dynamics relative to the base week, we obtained a deviation of the forecast from the fact in the 2nd week of 3.7%, which indicates the comparability of the dynamics of past years and the current trend in the volume of trade. It should be borne in mind that the shorter the forecast lead time using this method, the more reliable the extrapolation results. As a result of applying an additive forecasting model based on the trend and seasonal fluctuations, we obtained estimates of the seasonal component of the main economic cycles, so for the first quarter it amounted to (-7223 million rubles), which indicates a decline in economic activity in this segment of trade. In the second quarter, it amounted to (-4,711 million rubles), which indicates the recovery of buying activity in the market. In the third and fourth quarters, the assessment of the seasonal component (+298 million rubles) and (+11636 million rubles), respectively, on the basis of which we can say that the demand for goods in the summer and autumn periods is higher than in other seasons in this market segment. Thus, the obtained forecasting results make it possible to determine the market situation in the future, to identify the main trends. And they help, based on the results obtained, to make effective management decisions aimed at increasing the volume of trade in the future.
3. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS, OPTIMIZATION AND WAYS TO INCREASE TRADE VOLUME
3.1 Analysis of uniformity and factors affecting the volume of trade
Let's analyze the actual and forecast volume of trade obtained as a result of building an additive model on a quarterly basis to determine the uniformity coefficient over the years in the period from 2014-2015.
Table 16 - Initial data for calculating the coefficient of uniformity of the volume of turnover of goods of the company CJSC "Tander" by quarters for 2014-2015
Using the data obtained in Table 16, we will calculate the standard deviation of the implementation of the plan for the volume of goods turnover and the coefficient of variation:
The calculated uniformity coefficient is 92.93% (100% - 7.6%), therefore, in 2014 and 2013, the forecast turnover of goods by quarters will be carried out fairly evenly and comparable to the growth in 2014.
Factors that have a direct impact on the volume of turnover of goods of the company CJSC "Tander" can be divided into three main groups:
a) Factors related to commodity resources;
b) Factors related to the number of employees and their productivity;
c) Factors related to the availability and efficiency of the use of fixed assets of a commercial enterprise and the mode of its operation.
d) Factors associated with commodity resources affect the volume of trade through a change in the value of stocks of goods at the beginning and end of the year, the receipt of goods and their disposal.
There is a certain relationship between the indicated values, expressed by the commodity balance formula:
where - stocks at the beginning of the year;
P - receipt of goods;
P is the volume of goods turnover;
B - disposal of goods;
Inventory at the end of the year.
Having formed these indicators in a chain of interrelated elements, you can get a balance formula for the volume of goods turnover:
Actual changes in these indicators have a corresponding impact on the volume of trade. Thus, a greater formation of commodity stocks at the beginning of the year and a decrease in the rate of disposal of goods has a positive impact on the volume of sales in the reporting year. In turn, a decrease in the terms of the factors entails a decrease in the total volume of the company's turnover.
Considering the directions of influence (plus; minus) of these factors, it is necessary to take into account the good quality of incoming goods in the entire range and required quantities. The same approach is followed for goods in stock. If these conditions are violated, a factor that has a positive effect can turn into a negative one.
One of the most optimal methods for conducting a vertical analysis of the influence of factors. Associated with commodity resources and having a direct impact on the total volume of the enterprise's turnover - the method of chain substitutions or the method of differences
In the first case, deviations between the indicators of the reporting and last year are found, and then the direction of the influence of the factor on the increase or decrease in the volume of trade is determined. Moreover, it should be taken into account that the direction of influence on the volume of trade turnover of changes in the disposal of goods and stocks of goods at the end of the year is reversed.
Table 17 - Calculation of the influence of factors related to commodity resources on the volume of turnover of goods of the company CJSC "Tander"
Also, the impact on the volume of trade turnover of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander" of factors related to commodity resources can be calculated by the chain substitution method using the commodity balance formula.
Chain method:
Using the data obtained from Table 17, we calculate the relative changes by the method of chain substitutions.
34761501+5909115493+2542880-43627527 = 584,588,403 thousand rubles
40368629 + 5909115493 + 2542880-43627527 \u003d 590 195 531 thousand rubles.
40368629+800432476+2542880-43627527 = 799,716,459 thousand rubles
40368629+800432476-7050141-43627527 = 790,123,438 thousand rubles
40368629 + 800432476-7050141-64 432 626 = 769 318 338 thousand rubles.
a) Let us determine the impact on the volume of goods turnover of the factor of changes in stocks of goods at the beginning of the year (Zn):
Due to the increase in stocks of goods, the turnover of the trading enterprise increased by 560 71 28 thousand rubles.
b) Determine the impact on the volume of turnover of the company's goods of a change in the receipt of goods (P):
Due to the increase in the receipt of goods, the turnover of the trade enterprise increased by 209,520,928 thousand rubles.
c) Determine the impact on the company's turnover of a change in the disposal of goods (B):
Due to the increase in the disposal of products, the turnover of the trade enterprise decreased by 9,593,021 thousand rubles.
d) Let's determine the impact on the company's turnover of the factor of changes in stocks of goods at the end of the year (Zk):
Due to the increase in stocks of products at the end of the year, the turnover of the trade enterprise decreased by 20,805,100 thousand rubles.
A significant influence is exerted by factors related to the number of working personnel and the productivity of their labor at the enterprise.
The model looks like:
where T is the volume of trade, thousand rubles;
H - the average number of employees, people;
B - labor productivity of one worker, thousand rubles.
In the conditions of the modern economy, these indicators must be analyzed taking into account inflation in comparable prices. The need is due to pronounced inflationary impacts on the volume of trade in ruble terms.
Table 18 - Labor indicators of the trade enterprise CJSC "Tander"
|
Indicators |
Changes |
||||
|
The volume of trade in actual prices, thousand rubles. |
|||||
|
Price index |
|||||
|
The volume of trade in comparable prices of the last year, thousand rubles. |
|||||
|
Average number of employees, persons |
|||||
|
Labor productivity of one employee in actual prices, thousand rubles. |
|||||
|
Labor productivity of one employee in comparable prices, thousand rubles |
In 2014, compared to 2013, the average number of employees of CJSC Tander increased by 10,000 people, or 4.0%; the labor productivity of one employee in actual prices increased by 621 thousand rubles, or 27.0%, and in comparable prices of the previous year, respectively, by 280 thousand rubles, or 12%.
Using the difference method or the integration method, it is possible to calculate the impact on the volume of goods turnover of changes in labor factors and the price index.
Using the method of differences, we have:
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Turnover indicators are the most important in the activities of a trading company, since the amount of gross income and profit ultimately depends on them. Planning these indicators is impossible without forecasting the turnover both for the enterprise as a whole and for individual product groups.
Forecasting turnover is very complex and is a task of multivariate analysis. This is due to the fact that a large number of different factors influence the value of trade turnover, such as the size of the trade margin, the amplitude of demand fluctuations, the level of inflation, the activity of competitors, etc. In addition, as for most economic indicators, a change in these factors does not lead to a change in trade immediately, but after some time, which also complicates forecasting.
In general terms, the problem is to find a functional dependence of the form
where is the turnover of the enterprise;
Factor affecting the turnover;
n is the total number of factors considered. In the presence of statistical data, the degree of influence of each factor can be assessed by the method of correlation analysis.
Let the values of turnover calculated at certain intervals (day, week, month, quarter) be known. Each value of Tm has its own parameter values, as shown in Table 1.6
Table 1.6 Matrix of the influence of factors on the value of trade
where -- the average value of turnover for the period under review; (1.12)
the average value of the Xn factor for the same period;
standard deviation of the value of turnover (1.13)
the standard deviation of the factor. (1.14)
The value of the correlation coefficient varies from -1 to +1. If the influence of the considered factor on the turnover is absent, then the correlation coefficient is equal to zero. With a functional (very significant) relationship, the correlation coefficient is equal to one. Moreover, if the connection is direct, i.e. with an increase in the indicator under consideration, the turnover increases proportionally, then the correlation coefficient is positive, and if the reverse is negative.
Such an analysis allows us to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the value of turnover, as well as to assess the nature of this influence, which in some cases allows us to present the expression for turnover in the form of a specific analytical dependence. However, this is far from always possible, so the most accurate, although the most time-consuming method of forecasting turnover is modeling.
In simpler cases, for example, when selling goods of stable demand, it is possible to forecast the turnover in simpler ways. The most common forecast is the moving average method.
Let the values of trade turnover be known as before; it is required to determine its value in the next time interval Тm+1. Calculating moving averages
Then we calculate the mean deviation
A positive value of the mean deviation means an expected increase, and a negative value means a decrease. The value will be determined from the ratio
As can be seen from the above relations, this method takes into account only the trend of change in trade turnover and does not take into account the degree and nature of the influence of various factors, so it can only be used for a rough estimate or, as mentioned above, for forecasting trade turnover for goods of stable demand.
The control process is the progress of the implementation of control functions by the control system. Thus, management technology is a system of information, logistics, computing, organizational operations performed by managers, specialists and technical performers. The most important factor in management is decision making. A management decision is a fixed management act, a plan of action. In a trading enterprise, there should be a clear separation between the management personnel, the main (trade and operational) and auxiliary. In the study of commercial enterprises, forecasting of various financial indicators is often considered. Depending on the goal, a search and normative forecast are distinguished.
Turnover is the most important indicator for an enterprise engaged in the sale of anything. First of all, it is expressed in monetary terms and characterizes the number of products sold for a certain period. Turnover does not show profit, it cannot be used to judge profitability, it is just a quantitative number expressed in commodity form. But the analysis of turnover is extremely important for choosing the future strategy of the company.
Classification
All types of trade are divided into three large groups: wholesale, retail and trade-intermediary. Each of these segments is divided into other subtypes, which is why the classification has a rather branched form.
Wholesale turnover is the sale of goods from the manufacturer to intermediaries involved in the subsequent resale of individual lots. Wholesalers play a key role in the market. They allow you to overcome obstacles that appear during the transportation and storage of goods during their movement from the manufacturer to the end user.
The main task of the wholesale company is the uniform distribution necessary items at all retail outlets, even the most remote geographically. In this regard, the following subtypes of wholesale turnover are distinguished: in one's own region, in other regions, and international. A more detailed classification can be seen in the figure. 
Retail turnover
It combines all operations related to the supply of goods to the final consumer. Retail sales complete the process of circulation of consumer goods and foodstuffs in the consumer market. Since this type of turnover occupies the largest share in the general classification, several types of delivery of items to the end user can be distinguished. A more detailed gradation can be found in the following figure.
The organizational form can be completely different. In addition to the usual trade in shops and supermarkets, catalogs and booklets are gaining popularity. New forms are constantly emerging, such as social media selling and group buying.
Payment methods also differ. Gone are the days when it was difficult to pay with a card in a store. Now even small stalls in the market are often equipped with portable handheld terminals. You can also pay by check or take expensive goods on credit.
Importance of turnover analysis for a store
The analysis of turnover is performed to determine the following number of tasks:
- in order to study the dynamics of the sale and the implementation of plans;
- to determine the most influential groups of goods and, conversely, the least profitable;
- to study the factors of influence on the turnover;
- to identify reserves, what else can be purchased, and what needs to be disposed of;
- to develop strategic plans for future activities.
The general scheme by which the analysis is carried out is shown in the figure. 
General indicators
Turnover indicators serve to establish the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the company's work for a certain period. The further calculation of other economic indicators depends on the correctness and completeness of the analysis performed. Today, all these tasks are performed very simply with the help of automated programs that help to fully track any changes in the turnover and quickly make prompt decisions to eliminate problems, if any.
The main indicators of trade turnover are:
- the volume of maintenance in monetary terms at the prices of the current and planned periods;
- assortment structure;
- Maintenance per day, month, quarter, year;
- maintenance per worker;
- the time of circulation of goods;
- the number of revolutions in a given period of time.
Turnover growth dynamics
Since turnover is the monetary equivalent of all goods sold at one enterprise for a specific period, the first indicator that needs to be calculated is its dynamics at current prices. In short, DTO. You can compare any period of time using the formula:
DTO = Actual turnover for the period in current prices * 100 / Actual TO of the period being compared.
This formula is applicable for periods in which prices have not changed. For example, for a short period of time - one or two months. If a quarter or a year is considered, then most likely the prices have changed, and therefore the calculation needs to be adjusted using a price index, which is calculated as follows:
Price I = price of the reporting period / price of the base period (taken as 100%).
In this way, you can adjust the actual turnover (the formula is presented below) in current prices:
Ф then in comparable prices = (Actual turnover in current prices / I price.) * 100%.
Turnover speed
Such an indicator as turnover has its own speed. In fact, it characterizes how long it will take for all stocks to go into circulation. Velocity analysis is critical for food retailers. Thanks to it, storage periods, delivery times and final sales dates are calculated. After all, you need to have time to order the product on time so that it can reach before the buyers buy up the last leftovers, and at the same time not violate the expiration dates. The turnover (speed formula) is characterized by the following indicators:
Number of turnovers of stocks:
where T is the monetary expression of turnover for a certain period, and Z is the value of commodity stocks.
Turnaround time is calculated in days:
where D is the number of calendar days, and n is the turnover ratio (calculated above).
Range
Being engaged in trade, it is impossible not to analyze the assortment. Whatever the trade enterprise, small or large, the owner still looks at which goods are bought more, which are less, which ones to order for future use, and which ones will fall in demand by the end of the season. Assortment policy is a whole branch of science, the study of which can significantly increase the profitability of the enterprise.
In small trading organizations, assortment analysis is carried out on an intuitive level. By the method of simple comparison and study of commodity turnover, objects with the greatest and least demand are recognized. But for large hypermarkets and wholesalers, assortment analysis plays a key role. And it's quite difficult to do it manually.
A prosperous enterprise has everything under control. Each unit of goods has its place in the structure of trade. At such enterprises, it is advisable to analyze the assortment using the ABC XYZ analysis. The first half of ABC means the study of product groups for profitability, group A includes those who bring the most income, C - the smallest. XYZ is responsible for demand. Thus, the AX group will include products that are bought most often and bring the greatest profit. If there are items included in the last category of CZ, then it is generally better to get rid of them, since they are ballast.
ABC XYZ analysis is a complex and simple method at the same time. The easiest way to do it is with automated programs. It gives excellent results, which characterize the retail turnover in the best possible way.
conclusions
Turnover is the only and most important indicator of the performance of a commercial enterprise, regardless of its size and form of organization. Its analysis allows you to judge the result of activities and choose the future strategy of the company.
