Exchange rate forecast for November December. To new heights

In this article, we will together make a dollar forecast for November-December 2016. In addition, I will discuss the direction of my trading positions in the coming week.

We predict the dollar exchange rate using its index

To know whether the dollar will strengthen or decline against the ruble, you should look at its dynamics relative to world currencies.

The weekly chart of the dollar index did not reach new highs, but there is a pullback - this can be interpreted as investors' reluctance to buy dollars. Indirectly, this may indicate a strengthening of the ruble against the dollar.

Dollar forecast for the dynamics of Russian bonds

The next step in the dollar forecast is an analysis of Russian ten-year government bonds.

The weekly chart of Russian ten-year bonds shows a downward trend - investors are buying them, so their yield continues to decline.

There is no reversal of the trend.

Brent oil forecast for November-December 2016

Click to enlarge the graph

On the weekly chart of Brent oil we see a reversal of the downward trend. Analysis of the global trend of Brent oil using the Thomas DeMark method allows us to determine the target – $77.97 per barrel.

Click on the graph to enlarge it

A more conservative forecast for Brent oil can be made on the daily chart, where the short-term target is $59.28 per barrel.

Ruble forecast for November-December 2016

The last step in forecasting the ruble exchange rate is to analyze the chart of the usd/rur pair. On the four-hour chart of the dollar/ruble pair, the setup level (beige line) has been broken and a movement to the upper border of the downward channel is possible. During this movement, it is logical to increase positions in selling the dollar and buying the ruble.

Dollar Forecast - Summary

In the coming week (October 31-November 4, 2016) we continue to increase and maintain our positions in selling the dollar. I also buy futures on Sberbank shares. I recommend buying futures on the RTS index and Brent oil.

Talking about forecast of the USD/RUB currency pair for October-November, you should pay attention to the commodity market, since the Russian ruble is a commodity currency.

After a meeting of energy ministers in Algeria and an agreement to reduce the rate of production of “black gold,” the level of $50 per barrel was crossed. Further action regarding production will be announced at the next meeting, which will take place on November 30 in Vienna. Market participants reacted positively to this news, and oil prices soared to $53-54, which is the maximum for 2016.

V. Putin’s statements in Istanbul were supported by the ruble exchange rate

An important event for the prospects for the ruble/dollar exchange rate in October-November are also the negotiations on the issue of freezing oil production, which took place on October 9-12 in Istanbul. Both representatives of OPEC and countries outside the cartel, including Russia, took part in the negotiations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Russian side is ready to support the idea of ​​reducing production. Following Russia's announcement, Brent crude oil reached highs of $54. demonstrated a powerful strengthening, following the lead of oil and strengthening for the first time since the beginning of 2016 to the level of 62 rubles/dollar. In addition to the factor of rising prices for raw materials, the Russian ruble was also supported by carry trade operations in the OFZ of the Russian Federation.

On the prospects for the ruble exchange rate in autumn-winter 2016

However, globally, nothing has changed in the oil market: OPEC member countries both produced and continue to produce oil at full capacity. Therefore, the information that cartel representatives will be able to reach a consensus at a meeting in Vienna is unlikely to be confirmed. Most likely, in the medium term, oil prices will fall into a sell-off, and the USD/RUB currency pair will begin to actively grow.

Attention should also be paid to the vector of monetary policy of the Central Banks of the Russian Federation and the USA. The American regulator is following the path of tightening, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, on the contrary, is giving signals to reduce the rate. Thus, we can say that now is the time when it is necessary buy currency pair USD/RUB from minimum values ​​with targets of 67-70 rubles/dollar. until the end of this year.

useful links

Other forecasts

Fortrader Suite 11, Second Floor, Sound & Vision House, Francis Rachel Str. Victoria Victoria, Mahe, Seychelles +7 10 248 2640568

Today I decided to tell you about the latest forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2016. As always, experts have different points of view, but they all agree on one thing: the ruble exchange rate in December depends on the behavior of the price of black gold.

At the moment, the dollar costs 65 rubles. Some experts say that the ruble will strengthen in December, while others will depreciate. But due to the fact that the ruble has been slowly depreciating over the past 2 weeks, we can confidently say that this trend will continue in the future. Many experts say that November and December are the last months of calm, when the ruble will gradually depreciate.

It is surprising that at the moment there is an increase in the price of oil on the market, which, in turn, should stop the depreciation of the ruble. Raiffeisenbank experts are confident that the ruble will not strengthen due to the sale of the state stake in Rosneft. Such development is only possible if the company itself buys back its shares. As a result, there will be a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, which will lead to a devaluation of the ruble.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016

Experts assure that in December the dollar/ruble pair will experience short-term fluctuations. The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said that privatization will not affect the foreign exchange market.

Another factor that could lead to destabilization in the market is an increase in geopolitical tensions. Instead of lifting existing sanctions, the US and EU countries are planning to introduce new sanctions. New sanctions will arise as a result of the conflict in Syria. Another factor that will not allow the currency to strengthen is the unresolved conflict in Ukraine.

Experts are confident that the gradual weakening of the ruble will only have a positive effect on the state’s economy. As a result of the depreciation of the currency, the country reduces the budget deficit, and Russian entrepreneurs gain a competitive advantage.

In general, almost all dollar exchange rate forecasts for December 2016 are pessimistic. The price of the American currency in the last month of the year will fluctuate in the range of 62-68 rubles.

This forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2017 will come true only if the price of oil does not fall to 30. Until November 15, the cost of black gold only increased - to 45.42 dollars per barrel.

If the cost of black gold reaches 50, then the ruble may reach 62. At the moment, the rise in the cost of oil is due to the efforts of OPEC countries, which are aimed at reducing production. Today, Qatar, Venezuela and Algeria are looking for ways to regulate contradictions between large oil-producing countries. Earlier, the Minister of Economy of Saudi Arabia called on all OPEC members to come to a common denominator to reduce oil production. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for November 30, 2016.

Fresh forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016

There is still instability in the EU. Eurozone countries still cannot cope with the consequences of Brexit. The euro/dollar pair continues a downward trend, which will last until the end of 2016.

Forecasts for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 are similar in that this month the trend towards a depreciation of the euro will continue. At the moment the EU has a lot of problems, including emigrants. To improve the current situation, the ECB kept the interest rate at a record low and also kept the quantitative easing program in operation.

At the moment, European countries are going through not the best of times. Inflation at the end of the current year is 0.2%, which is 10 times lower than the target value of two percent. GDP growth over the next three years will remain at 1.6%, which also scares many experts. The threat of deflation is prompting the ECB to continue measures to improve the economy. The bank's discount rate remains low, but the deposit rate is minus 4%. A negative rate has a negative impact on the banking industry, as a result of which many credit institutions are not in the most favorable position. Deutsche Bank is also in a deplorable state, and this is already a threat to the entire stability of the system. Experienced experts say that huge sums may soon be required to support the financial sector, which will negatively impact the economy.

The EU is also suffering because of the UK's exit, as well as because of the huge number of emigrants, which only increases the divisions between EU members. Experts claim that after the UK’s final exit from the EU, trade volumes will sharply decrease. This development threatens the continued existence of the European Union, which, of course, affects the mood of investors.

The latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 states that the euro will continue to depreciate in the future. According to APECON, in December the euro will cost 64-68 rubles. If the price of oil also increases in the future, then the cost of the euro in December could be 64 rubles.

Despite numerous attempts by APECON to reduce oil production, there is still a lot of black gold on the market. In addition, the previously reached agreement between major oil-producing countries is under great threat due to the position of Iran and Iraq. Experienced analysts do not rule out another collapse in oil prices, which, of course, will deal a blow to the Russian economy and lead to a devaluation of the national currency.

In December 2016, the euro exchange rate against all world currencies will decline. But what will happen to our currency at the end of the year depends on the future price of oil. The latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 states that in December the euro will cost 62-68 rubles.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a guide to action.

In order to keep abreast of all the latest news on the financial market, subscribe to my newsletter. I wish you all good luck and good Profits!

After the depreciation of the ruble in August, many experts stopped making currency forecasts. The ruble exchange rate in November 2016 depends on the price of oil, as well as on the decisions of the Central Bank and the situation in international politics. Some analysts claim that in November 1 ruble will cost 70-73 rubles. As for the euro, it will cost 82-84 rubles. This forecast for November 2016 was compiled by a forecasting agency. If you believe their forecast, then the dollar should strengthen at the end of October.

Forecast for the ruble exchange rate in November 2016

Analysts with pessimistic views suggested that in November 1 ruble will cost 100 rubles. But such a sharp depreciation of the ruble, according to many experts, is unlikely to happen. But it is quite likely that the ruble will fall in price in November.

Experienced financial experts are confident that forecasts about the depreciation of the ruble are aimed at provoking instability in the financial markets, which is beneficial to the majority of speculators. Experts are confident that the country's gold reserves guarantee that the ruble will not depreciate significantly. In their opinion, the leadership of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank will not allow the ruble to fall sharply. Recent news reports leave no hope that the ruble will strengthen. Many people hope that in the near future the demand for “black gold” will increase, which, in turn, will lead to a strengthening of the ruble.

Representatives of the stock market expect the ruble to depreciate by 5-7%. Nordea Bank experts assure that the dollar exchange rate in November 2016 will be 62 rubles. Although most experts assure that the ruble will not strengthen in November. Most likely, there will not be a sharp fall in the ruble, but it could fall to 72. A more accurate forecast of the dollar exchange rate for November could be made if accurate information about how the price of oil would change was available. Leading financiers have a different opinion, assuring that in October the ruble will begin to strengthen against world currencies.

Sberbank-CIB suggested that in November the price of oil will fluctuate in the range of 41-45 dollars, and the dollar will briefly rise to 70, after which it will return to 65.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for November 2016

Analysts well versed in economics advise keeping your savings in several currencies.

The Ministry of Economic Development provides a forecast of the ruble exchange rate every year. This information is needed to create a budget. But these data may differ significantly from real events on the market, since analysts are not able to foresee various emergency incidents.

The Ministry of Finance suggested that in 2016 the ruble will fluctuate in the range of 62-64 rubles. The dollar has three points: the top one is at 66, the second is 64 and the third is 63.

The Russian economy is significantly affected by the price of oil. Due to the introduction of new sanctions, the price of oil plummeted. As a result, sharp jumps appeared on the price chart, which are very difficult to predict in advance. However, with the introduction of sanctions, industry and agriculture began to actively develop in our country.

From all that has been said above, we can conclude that at the end of October the ruble will strengthen against the dollar, but in November it will fall somewhat in price for a short time and return to around 64.

This dollar exchange rate forecast for November is compiled for informational purposes and is not a guide to action. Remember that no forecast can be 100% reliable, so be careful when trading.

After the end of the elections, the situation on the foreign exchange market may change dramatically. Experts' forecast for November 2016 assumes a significant depreciation of the ruble, which is associated with the Central Bank's desire to reduce the budget deficit.

At the same time, the scale of future devaluation will depend on fluctuations in the oil market.

Rotate 180 degrees

The period of stability for the Russian currency is approaching its end. Experts note several factors that could cause a new wave of ruble devaluation.

The end of the elections allowed the Central Bank to change its policy. If previously the regulator removed excess ruble liquidity from the financial system, now the Central Bank intends to return to the use of repo transactions. As a result, a huge resource will enter the market - more than 1 trillion rubles, which will lead to a weakening of the position of the Russian currency. At the same time, external factors and the state of the budget will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the ruble in the near future.

The Central Bank carried out injections of a similar scale at the end of 2014, when the value of the dollar soared to 80 rubles. At the same time, the regulator provided the market with about 900 billion rubles, which is significantly less than the expected injections of this year.

Grand Capital representative Sergei Kozlovsky notes that the regulator’s actions were predictable. Until the end of the elections, the main task of the Central Bank was to stabilize the foreign exchange market, for which ruble liquidity was limited. After the end of the election process, another task comes first - balancing the budget.

Low oil prices and a relatively strong ruble have led to a reduction in budget revenues. As a result, the budget deficit increased, the financing of which became a real problem for the government. According to the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Fund will be exhausted at the beginning of next year.

Promsvyazbank analyst Alexander Plyutov predicts a weakening of the Russian currency to 70 rubles/dollar. Saxo Bank experts do not rule out an increase in quotes to 75-80 rubles per dollar if prices for “black gold” drop to 40 dollars per barrel.

The most pessimistic scenarios involve a more significant collapse of the domestic currency. In addition to the budget crisis, the government is unable to restore positive economic growth dynamics. As a result, the dollar exchange rate may reach its historical maximum in the near future.

To new heights

The government has repeatedly stated that it has overcome the consequences of the crisis. Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development note a recovery in GDP growth and a gradual slowdown in inflation. However, experts are skeptical about such prospects, expecting the recession to continue. At the same time, the decline could reach record proportions.

Despite the optimistic forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, expert Vladislav Zhukovsky predicts new shocks for the domestic economy. Eight sectors of the economy are in a state of crisis. In such conditions, low rates of economic growth will continue for 3-5 years. In addition, the stability of the domestic currency, which will remain tied to oil market trends, will be under attack. At the same time, officials do not have real tools to radically change the situation; the government’s previous anti-crisis programs have demonstrated their complete ineffectiveness. There is also no money in the budget for such initiatives.

Stepan Demura is also confident that the crisis in the Russian economy is only gaining momentum. Capital outflow and structural problems of the domestic development model will result in a devaluation of the ruble to 125 rubles/dollar. At the same time, the existing reserves will clearly not be enough to support the Russian currency.

In addition to internal problems, experts admit a new collapse in prices on the oil market. The implementation of negative forecasts will create additional threats to the ruble exchange rate in November 2016.

Competition between key exporters of “black gold” puts pressure on prices. According to analysts' forecasts, against the backdrop of a slowdown in global consumption, the price of oil may fall to $30 per barrel. In such conditions, the government will be forced to weaken the position of the Russian currency, which will help smooth out the shock to the economy and budget.

In November 2016, the Russian currency will face another shock. The growth of the budget deficit and the lack of reserves to finance it will lead to a weakening of the ruble to 70-80 rubles/dollar. The end of the elections will allow the Central Bank to increase the volume of ruble liquidity in the market, which will be reflected in foreign exchange quotes.

The most pessimistic scenarios, which assume a new economic collapse and a decline in oil prices, allow for the devaluation of the Russian currency to 125 rubles/dollar.