Horse racing betting strategy: Favorite and underdog. Tennis strategy “Betting on outsiders When should you look at betting on an outsider

Beginners in betting often prefer to bet on the favorites, based on the fact that they are more likely to win. However, many players choose the strategy of betting against the favorite (on the outsider), considering it to be more effective.

The main reason is favorable odds. For a match where one of the teams is noticeably stronger than the opponent, the bookmaker, expecting a large stream of bets on the favorite, underestimates the odds for his victory and raises for a weaker team. In most cases, by the beginning of the game, due to the “load” on the favorite, this trend only intensifies.

Because of the load, it is common advice to bet on the favorite at the time of setting the line, and on the underdog before the match.

All this leads to the fact that the bookmaker overestimates the odds on the outsider relative to the real probability, and the bet on the underdog becomes “valuable”. In this case, the bettor at a distance has an advantage over the bookmaker.

Strategy Features

1. Competition Selection. We recommend betting in the leading championships. This is due to the large volume Money bet by players for matches of top leagues, which affects the growth of odds for the underdog.
2. Bookmaker selection important for any strategy. In order to gain an advantage over the bookmaker in a long-term confrontation, tenths and hundredths of the odds difference matter. Practice shows that if the odds for the favorite differ slightly from different bookmakers, then the “scatter” for the underdog can be quite large.
3. Blindly Following a Strategy without serious analysis with the help of statistics, own knowledge, intuition is not acceptable. The main factor in selection is motivation, which can be due to a variety of reasons. We should not forget also about the current form, game schedule and lineups. It is believed that bets on the "home" outsider are more effective.
4. In football, it is not so profitable to bet on the underdog due to the fact that the match has three outcomes. But it is not necessary to bet on victory - there are options for a double outcome (1X), F(0), F(+1), if the odds allow. You need to independently determine the range of odds that suit you.
5. Cautious players can play it safe. Before the match, the bettor makes a bet with the bookmaker on the victory of the underdog. After the start of the game, if the favorite fails to score, the odds for his victory begin to grow, and there may come a moment when, having made the opposite bet - on the favorite, the player can leave the match in the "plus". This is the so-called fork in live.
6. The goal of the strategy- get income at a distance, so the size of the pot and the size of the bet should be calculated for a long game.

Underdog betting strategies

Above, we have defined the basic rules for betting on an outsider, then we will consider several approaches to the game that are found on the network.

Betting strategy against the favorite in cup competitions

Football fans know that cup games have the most surprises. In different countries the prestige of these competitions is different. Often the situation develops in such a way that the club management is forced, for various reasons, to set the priorities of the tournaments where their team has to participate. The result is games with the second squad, saving strength, draining the cup.

How to bet against the cup favorite. The matches of the initial rounds of the national cup are coming up in a country where you are well versed in the balance of power between football clubs.

1. Select 5 teams who, in your opinion, are ready to "sacrifice" this tournament, and meet with teams of a lower rank.
2. Bet on 5 matches for the same amount. The coefficient is supposed to be from 6-7 and higher.
3. When you pass at least one bet, you will receive a profit.

Strategy "Hole" from Mikhail Starikov

The strategy is based on the analysis of football betting matches in Fonbet. The key idea of ​​the author is that the bookmaker, pursuing the goal of preventing the jackpot from being won, deliberately introduces a match into the sweepstakes where the teams are very different in class, but at the same time there is information that the game can end unexpectedly.

Very few sweepstakes participants "close" the victory of an outsider. A “hole” appears, where the bets of the players “fall down”. The author identifies three features of such games:

• there are teams that are not comparable in class;
• the probability, according to the bookmaker, is less than 30%;
• the pool of underdog bettors is less than 20%.

Your task is simple - to find such meetings in the sweepstakes, and they happen in almost every draw, and bet on the outsider not losing.

The strategy is interesting for analyzing the logic of the bookmaker, but such systems, even if they are justified, usually do not last long.

Home Underdog Betting Strategy

The strategy is based on the selection of matches according to the following criteria:

• the underdog we bet on plays at home;
• the range of acceptable odds for it is from 2.5 to 7.0;
• decrease in coefficients for an outsider by the beginning of the game.

Deserves attention last condition. It goes against the common notion that the underdog odds rise before the game. In fact, every rule has exceptions. For the period from the initial setting of the coefficients to the start of the match, the balance may change due to objective reasons. The bettor in this strategy follows the movement of the line and makes a bet against the favorite.

Conclusion

In the odds for an outsider offered by the bookmaker, there are “value bets”, which makes the strategy under consideration effective tool for successful betting.

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Most players remember their first bet in the office and it was most likely the absolute favorite with a very low odds. All beginners believe that playing the favorites will bring them the expected income. At the same time, they do not take into account that the quotes for the favorites are significantly lower than the probability of their wins..

Betting on underdogs may seem crazy to some, but if you use the right strategy, you can get a steady income from them. Let's evaluate the advantages of betting on outsiders.

pros

1. Large income from the winning bet

By betting 100 rubles on the favorite, you best case win 180 rubles, and when betting on an outsider, it is quite possible to win 600 rubles and even more.

2. No need to win more than 50% of bets

If you bet on the most clear favorites, then you need to win in 70-90% of cases to be in the black. When betting on outsiders, even 3-4 losing bets in a row will not bring you into confusion. It is worth winning one victory, and you will immediately improve your financial situation.

3. Lots of value bets

It is outsiders that bookmakers very often underestimate. It also happens that players, with their heavy bets on the favorite, force the bookmakers to change the odds in favor of the outsider, which ultimately leads to the appearance of a value bet.

To convince you that underdogs don't win as often as they seem, let's take a look at the results of one day of the last football weekend in the top 5 national tournaments in Europe. As you can see, the bet on the outsider would have passed in 9 cases out of 25. If you bet $100 on the outsider in each match, then with $2500 spent, total gain would be $4808. And this despite the fact that the table shows the coefficients, which are far from the highest.

This example does not mean that thoughtless betting on outsiders will bring you income. Favorites will not show such weak results in every round, but very often bookmakers underestimate outsiders.

In what cases should you look at the bet on the outsider?

1. Playing with a principled opponent

The rivalries of individual teams are so fierce that the game can end with absolutely any result, regardless of the difference in the class of the teams. Example: In the 2009-10 season, Leeds United eliminated their nemesis Manchester United from the FA Cup. The game was played in Manchester but that didn't stop Leeds from setting up properly and winning 1-0. Recall that at that time the clubs separated 2 divisions from each other, and Manchester United played the role of the finalist of the Champions League and the winner of the last Premier League.

2. Highly motivated underdog or lack of motivation from the favorite

If in the last rounds there will be a team that is fighting for survival, with a team that has already solved the problem for the season, then even a hopeless outsider will certainly fight for points in this situation. It is also not uncommon for teams that have secured the championship in advance to lose in the last rounds. Example: In the 2014-15 season, Bayern Munich lost three of their last four games, although they had only 2 defeats in the previous 30 games.

3. Bonuses for players

Sometimes a cash bonus can be more motivating than any other factor. Example: in RFPL 2009, 3 rounds before the end, Rubin from Kazan overtook Spartak Moscow by only 1 point. Spartak played with the Samara Wings, which had already solved all their problems, but unexpectedly the Samara team won with a score of 2:1. Later, the Wings players admitted that Rubin motivated the team by giving about 500 thousand euros for the victory over Spartak. The coefficient for the victory of the Wings in that match was 8.00.

4. Right before the game

On the last day before the match, amateurs begin to bet, who usually "charge" money on the favorites. Under the influence of their bets, bookmakers are forced to change the odds in favor of outsiders, and at this moment you can catch the odds at their peak.

5. Injuries and disqualifications of players from the favorite

Barcelona, ​​according to the average fan, will always be the favorite, regardless of whether its players are injured or not. If the same Neymar gets injured and Messi is disqualified, then the team's strike potential will decrease significantly. In such situations, you need to play on the favorites.

Summary

Betting on outsiders does not imply a bet on winning. Can be put on double outcome or for an outsider to win with some handicap. Main find an undervalued market in the line and manage to bet at a high coefficient.

Despite all the advantages of betting on outsiders, playing blindly in such markets will only bring you a loss. It is impossible to win at a bookmaker without a betting strategy and without a thorough analysis of each individual event, regardless of whether you bet on favorites or underdogs.

Everyone understands what is better to bet on clear leader or at least a team that is more or less successful. In principle, most beginners do just that.

Probably, there is some truth here, because such teams show a more stable game. However, in the world sports betting not so simple! It turns out that experienced professionals very often use the "services" of outsiders, or rather, high odds that the bookmaker puts on them.

How can an outsider generate income?

Agree, quite interest Ask– how can a team that is doomed to lose in this match be able to bring the joy of victory to a player? Turning to the history of the development of the totalizator and the betting business, it must be said that there have been a lot of cunning players over the past century. Paying attention to the fact that bookmakers are more puzzled over how to put the lowest odds on the favorite, the score of the second team automatically increased. By the way, it was on this soil that the concept of “agreement” grew up, when, seeing fantastic odds for an outsider, the parties agreed and successfully divided the profit in half. But the conversation is not about that. Cunning players not only watched how the coefficients were arranged, but also the change in the level of the team’s game, external factors that could affect the result. As a result, the world saw a lot of options and systems that involve not just setting up an outsider, but also making a profit.

If you conduct a thorough analysis and display all the results in one statistical table, you can make sure that there is not a single team (even a very strong one!) that would not lose to an obvious outsider. Without leafing through history, one can recall the very near facts of the football championship of the Netherlands, Italy and Great Britain, when the leader of the championship, being in great shape, suddenly loses to an outsider. For example, a few rounds before the end of the Spanish championship, when every point was important for Barca in the fight against Real Madrid, the team concedes a goal from Getafe in the last second. And there are many such examples.

Why does the leader suddenly lose?

Before considering the methods and strategies that are designed to win the player from betting on an outsider, it is very important to understand why such strange losses of leaders occur, which were written about above. This is important because a real player who claims to be a professional and really wants to earn money must not only have full information about the match, but also the so-called "sixth sense", which is the main secret of the success of recognized sports betting masters.

Yes, any championship can "boast" of such matches, where the undisputed leader, quite suddenly, is defeated by an outsider. A professional player needs not only to feel such moments. Feelings should be based on specific information. For example, the leader does not play very confidently on the road (if we are talking about football), the leading attacking or defensive players will not participate in the match. In addition, it is important to review the "state" of the outsider. For example, the past championships of England, Spain and Italy are simply full of matches, when the team that occupies the last line in the standings, if not winning, then very confidently played a draw with the leaders. You have to understand that any team, whether it is a leader or an outsider, has moments of ups and downs throughout the championship. Here it is very important to find a moment when the forward is on a decline, and his opponent shows a stable and strong game.

Having considered all the nuances associated with the physical and moral-psychological state of the teams, it is necessary to correctly decide on such a moment as the correct bet. Your best bet is to look through several bookmakers and find the best one. large ratio placed on the outsider. This process is called finding the bookmaker's mistake. It must be remembered that bookmakers also make mistakes when they try to reduce the coefficient on the leader as much as possible, automatically raising the opponent's score.

Such a the most important factor like a league table. It is worth referring to the statistics and experience of professional players, who rarely bet on an outsider during the start of the championship, when there is a kind of distribution of places in the standings. At least several rounds must pass in order to “loom” the picture of the championship and the state of the teams participating in it. Most effective rates they become an outsider at the moment when the leader is far behind competitors and relaxes somewhat. This is an exclusively human factor, which cannot be ruled out, and to which all teams, without exception, are subject. It is not at all necessary to think that the leader with a large lead in points will lose. No! He can play several matches with a draw, score half as much, release young players and the second squad to the game in order to give the top players a break.

It is very good to use such moments as the participation of the leader in international tournaments. Information about the plans of the club and the strategy of the coaching staff of the leading club is extremely important here. For example, referring to the same football, history knows many situations when a team, having reached the top steps of the standings, allowing it to next year to participate in European competitions, weakens the focus on the domestic championship. The coach saves the strength of the team for European cups, releasing a second squad for the domestic championship games. This is so fertile ground when betting on an outsider plays in 90% of cases.

What are the most effective methods of targeting an outsider?

The first and most important means leading to the success of betting on an outsider is the absence of a complex of fear of losing. It is this psychological moment that prevents many players from winning decent amounts of money. You can understand the player, especially if he is a beginner. For example, in the match "Barcelona" - "Getafe" only "suicide" will bet on the victory of the second team. However, just such a match, in the last championship, ended in a 1-1 draw. Everything is explained very simply:

• 1. Barca, at that time, played a lot of international and cup matches.
• 2. Many players were called up to the national team.
• 3. Injuries to leading players in the middle line.
• 4. Recently, the most difficult matches have taken place with the main competitors - Real Madrid and the Villarreal club.

As you can see, the most favorable situation has developed for a bet on an outsider to play, because no matter how powerful the team is, human strength has a limit. However, it is not at all necessary to bet on an outsider's clear victory or a draw-to-win option. The leader always remains the leader, and such options can be quite risky. Here another method comes to the rescue, the effectiveness of which has been proven by practice and time.

Plus Handicap (Asian Handicap)

Today, without exception, all bookmakers offer their users the use of plus odds. Such types of rates, actively used professional players, very often overlooked by beginners, and very in vain. If we return to the above example with the match between Barcelona and Getafe, we can see that the odds for the second team to win was 12.0, for the second team to draw - 1.70. However, these options are very risky. It is known that the leader (especially if the game is at home!) tries to score more in order to please his fans. But, despite this, some analysis should be carried out, which will show that the coefficient for the leader's victory is 1.14, and with a handicap of +3.5 - also 1.14. Given the negative that has developed in the schedule of Barcelona's games, we can count on the fact that the team will not be able to score more than two goals. So, in fact, it happened. Looking back, remember that the underdog handicap in that match was as follows:

• +3.5 – 1.14.
• +3. – 1.20.
• +2.5 – 1.35.
• +2 – 1.44.
• +1.5 – 1.65
• +1 – 1.80.

It is clear from these data that a draw (which happened in this match) brought the players a coefficient that is extremely difficult to get with the participation of football giants such as Barcelona, ​​​​Real, Bayern or Napoli. This once again confirms the idea that with careful analysis and excellent information, positive odds bring simply fantastic results, and the strategy of betting on an outsider fully justifies expectations.

Calculation of the bet on the outsider

It should be noted that the strategy of betting on an outsider, despite its profitability, is a very delicate matter. Even after calculating all the physiological and psychological aspects concerning the leader and the outsider, the risk of losing always remains. In order to avoid financial losses, you can make fairly simple calculations that completely eliminate the loss. Let's say the player's pot is $100 and there is a strong desire to bet on the underdog. There is no information about the teams, and the player does not know in what psychological and physical form commands are located.

The odds for an outsider to win is 10.5.

To determine the amount that you need to put on an outsider, you need to divide the bank by a factor of 10.5. The amount of 9.5 dollars will be the value that will be delivered. After that, it is important to determine the amount that should be at the output, in other words, the winnings. Let it be $ 120, which is very good for a bet on an outsider. The rest of the pot, which is 90.5 dollars, is divided by the desired winning amount - 120. We get the result - 1.32, which is the very winning coefficient of the leader, at which the player will have a profit of twenty dollars. Of course, such calculations depend on the desire of the player to receive the hidden profit, but the prospective amount of winnings may increase or decrease, depending on what odds the bookmaker provided to its visitors. I must say that this method is very good and always justifies itself. The only drawback of such a strategy is the fact that it is impossible to break the big "jackpot" here. However, it is impossible to lose your bank, which is no less important.

Life betting on an outsider

Moving away from the so-called "stationary" betting methods, you can test your knowledge on live bets, which are carried out, in fact, by all bookmakers. First of all, a novice player should see how real professionals do it. The first viewing will end with a whole series of questions, the answer to which is luck. First of all, it is necessary to highlight some points that are extremely important when participating in life betting on an outsider:

• 1. Availability of the necessary information about the composition of teams, physical activity, game schedule, participation in other tournaments, player injuries.
• 2. The strategy of the coaching staff regarding the domestic championship.
• 3. The stability and effectiveness of the outsider's play in the last five games.

In addition, live bets, which can be changed during the game, imply direct viewing of a sporting event. An experienced player, already at the end of the first half (if we are talking about football), will really see how the match can end and what type of bet will be most effective for the outsider. It must be said that experienced players practice placing bets at several bookmakers at once, where in each sporting event an outsider is bet different kind rates, but each of them, without fail, must be logically justified and real. Such a "fork" often gives excellent results, to the point that all events justify themselves, bringing a very decent win.

Paying attention to the process of betting on an outsider, it is important to understand that this strategy can be as profitable as any other. Do not forget that any betting option requires from the player not only a great desire to win, but also such important personal qualities as patience, perseverance and attention. Each sporting event is a source of information that is important to absorb and draw the necessary conclusions. Only in this case, betting on an outsider will bring no less profit and moral satisfaction than the rest.

A bet on an outsider is a great chance to win well by identifying the bookmaker's mistake in time!

Favorite on the contrary

First letter "a"

The second letter is "u"

Third letter "t"

The last beech is the letter "r"

Answer for the clue "Reverse favorite", 9 letters:
outsider

Alternative questions in crossword puzzles for the word outsider

The laggard, the one who, having failed

Laggard in sports

The hopelessly behind runner

A capitalist enterprise that is not part of a monopolistic association

lagging behind, closing, occupying one of last places

Tail team

The last runner on the course

Broker who is not a member of the exchange

Word definitions for outsider in dictionaries

Wikipedia The meaning of the word in the Wikipedia dictionary
Outsider In Russian means "lagging behind." Less commonly used as a direct tracing paper from English, meaning "being outside of something." This word can be used in the following professional fields: in sports - the participant who took the last ...

Dictionary Russian language. S.I. Ozhegov, N.Yu. Shvedova. The meaning of the word in the dictionary Explanatory dictionary of the Russian language. S.I. Ozhegov, N.Yu. Shvedova.
[de], -a, m. Sport Team(or athlete) who took one of the last places and was eliminated from the main participants. Outsiders of the Champions Cup. trans. One who, having failed, dropped out of the members of a. business, businesses. A....

Examples of the use of the word outsider in the literature.

I was typical outsider, both for the army, and for the party and the economy, I have never in my life had the slightest relation to weapons, I have not even served as a soldier and have never used, even as a hunter, firearms.

After all, Tegularius, this talented and sickly outsider, clearly did not expect a great career, and he himself seemed to have so little ambition that a possible indulgence on the part of the new master would not have harmed any competitors.

In general, from many evasive and vague statements, one gets the feeling that the elite of economists knows that the country will be reduced to a state of outsider with the extinction of two-thirds of the population.

At the last moment, the players were confused by the unexpected raise on Nana, outsider the Vandeuvre stables.

In addition, Bloch outsider in the world of philosophy, impartiality of judgment was characteristic, while Heidegger, no matter how unconventional his first speech may seem, still retained the training received in a certain - phenomenological - school.