An earthquake is coming soon. Scientists predict a powerful earthquake in America and Japan

Fear of the force of the elements is fully justified, not a single state on earth can resist the phenomena of mother nature. However, living in megacities, many of us get used to a deceptive calm, believing that the cataclysms caused by external forces, they will not be affected. Such opinions are very erroneous, there are confirmations of this within our country. Thus, an earthquake in Moscow is not at all uncommon, despite the fact that few residents of the capital will be able to refresh their memory of these disturbing moments.

First known earthquake

Despite the fact that there is very little authentic evidence, there is real evidence that natural disasters of this kind have occurred in the capital region for a long time, quite rarely, but with a certain regularity and a tendency to become more frequent.

Presumably, the first earthquake in Moscow (about which there is at least some confirmed information) dates back to the 15th century. So, in 1445, soil vibrations were estimated up to about 5 points. Tall buildings were the most affected, and the bells themselves rang, which led the local population into a very exciting state. Among the inhabitants of the city there was a rumor about a bad omen, which was facilitated by the unstable political situation. The events that happened were later recorded by the brilliant historian Karamzin.

Repetition of events

There is also evidence that a second earthquake in Moscow was noted literally 30 years after the event described above. In addition to the spontaneous ringing of bells, it was accompanied by the collapse of the newly built Assumption Cathedral. According to information obtained as a result of excavations of the 20th century, the strength of the earth's vibrations at the time of the phenomenon was about 6 points, which ultimately led to damage to the newly erected structure.

Acquaintance of the classic with nature

Many experts, answering the question of what year the earthquake took place in Moscow, often recall the events of the early 19th century. So, in 1802, the excitement of the earth again reached 5 points. There are eyewitness accounts of the earthquake in high houses. Thus, the swinging of chandeliers and the rattling of dishes were noted, and in one of the houses the walls in the cellar even cracked. The tremors underground lasted no more than 20 seconds and did not cause much panic among the local population, but for a long time it stuck in the memory of the young Alexander Pushkin, who happened to get acquainted with this natural phenomenon at the age of three. In some areas of the city, the excitement was stronger, while in others it went completely unnoticed. It should be noted that the events of this time were also recorded by Karamzin in one of the popular newspapers Vestnik Evropy.

Start of official accounting

In 1893, a catalog of earthquakes in the country was compiled. According to his official data, in the period from 1445 to 1887, 4 mild shakings were recorded in the capital. The information obtained allows us to assume low risks of seismic activity in the central region. Later, in more than 200 years of studying natural disasters of this kind, 8 shakings were identified and recorded.

Seismic activity during the war

What year was the earthquake in Moscow in the 20th century? IN Lately the capital region began to shudder from tremors much more often. The first recorded in modern time the event falls on the war years, namely on November 10, 1940. In Moscow, seismic activity was noted that day, estimated at about 5 points. Its cause was a powerful shaking in the Carpathian Mountains, accompanied by devastating events in the epicenter. Echoes of unrest were also felt in such major cities USSR, like Kyiv, Kharkov and Voronezh. In Lviv, the tremors were extremely strong and were perceived as a full-fledged earthquake. It is noteworthy that in less than three weeks from the announced date, the echoes of shaking were also felt in the capital, their strength at that time was no more than 2 points, due to which the violence of the elements went completely unnoticed.

Six months after the end of the Great Patriotic War an earthquake in Moscow was recorded again, but it passed unnoticed by local residents. The thing is that the epicenter of the event was located not far from Antarctica and the echoes that came were minimal in their strength. Fixation of the earthquake occurred due to the work of the central seismological station.

The earthquake in Moscow in 1977 made a lot of noise in the foreign press. Newspapermen claimed that the city would soon be in ruins and residents needed to evacuate the capital as quickly as possible. In fact, the shaking was quite insignificant and amounted to about 3-4 points. However, it should be noted that at altitude it was felt much stronger and could reach 7 points. The shocks were characterized as smooth and slow, the direction of their movement was from the southwest. Evening events recorded in Moscow were also felt in cities such as Leningrad and Minsk, and their source was in the Carpathian mountains. On the territory of Romania, the force of the destructive elements not only caused economic damage, but also caused the death of more than 1.5 thousand people.

The earthquake in Moscow (1986) continues the chronicle of metropolitan seismic activity. It happened on August 30, the power at the epicenter was 8 points, however, as usual, only weak echoes reached the city, which did not disturb the natural course of life of local residents.

Lately

The earthquake in Moscow in 2013 is one of the last, its strength is estimated at 3-4 points. The reason for the hesitation is the echoes of the events that took place in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, at the other end of the country. In the Far East region, the strength of the natural elements was 8.2 points.

Many are interested in whether there has been an earthquake in Moscow lately? 2015, September 16 - this date will be remembered for the horrific events that took place in the South American country of Chile. However, in the central part of Russia they were not felt at all, scientists predicted certain risks for Kamchatka and Far Eastern region. So, more than 15 strongest tremors could provoke a strong tsunami from the eastern side of the country.

Where the danger is formed

The echoes of an earthquake in Moscow are a frequent event, the frequency of earth oscillations for our capital is about 30-40 years, but it is not possible to fix such a trend. Most of the shocks come to us from the Carpathian Mountains and are felt at ground level with a maximum of 3-4 points. Many people simply do not perceive such unrest, someone notices a slight rattling of glass or a vibration of unknown origin. Presumably, situations of this kind will be repeated in the future, perhaps over time the situation will even worsen, and the strength of the tremors will grow.

The main danger for Moscow is ground vibrations in the area of ​​the Carpathian Mountains. This seismically active source is located relatively close to the capital of Russia, in addition, it is necessary to take into account such natural features:

1. Significant depth of the oscillation focus. Such a remote location from the earth's surface leads to the fact that the waves diverging to the sides die out extremely slowly and are able to transfer their activity over considerable distances.

In the Carpathian area, contributing to the movement of waves from an earthquake towards the northeast, that is, towards Moscow.

In addition to the mentioned Western danger, we should not forget about our own "hot spots". So, tremors can theoretically approach the capital from the Caucasus region. Less likely - ground vibrations that came from the Scandinavian direction. For the most part, they are felt in St. Petersburg and other settlements Leningrad region.

Dangerous points of Russia

Their dangerous areas exist on the territory of Central Russia, as well as the lands immediately adjacent to it. So, the most problematic are the following areas:

• Northwestern region;
• Ural;
• Cis-Urals;
• Voronezh massif.

It is necessary to note once again the fact that all earthquakes in the territory of Moscow are echoes of seismic activity in other regions of the globe. Tremors in the territory of our capital do not occur on their own.

What to do in case of danger

No one knows when the last earthquake in Moscow will occur, and calculating the frequency is also a completely thankless task. Hoping for an insignificant force of the elements, most citizens forget that high-rise buildings are more susceptible to resonance, which means that the force of tremors felt in skyscrapers is much higher than waves recorded at sea level. If you find yourself in an unpleasant situation and experience all the delights of tremors, try not to get lost and take the following actions aimed at maintaining your own safety:

1. Leave the building (it is forbidden to use the elevator, the best option is to go down the back stairs).
2. If possible, before leaving the building, it is necessary to collect essential items (ideal list - documents, first aid kit, money).
3. If you cannot leave the apartment, find the safest place. As a rule, this is a doorway in the main wall, located close to large and heavy furniture, glass objects and windows.
4. During pushes, be vigilant and look around, mindfulness will allow you to take cover from falling objects.
5. Turn off water, gas and electricity (if possible).
6. At the end of the emergency, do not immediately try to return to the house, probably, the risk of collapse of the structure or individual items is still quite high, it is best in this case to wait for the house to be inspected by specialists.
7. If you were allowed to return to the house, do not reconnect gas, electricity and other utilities, their serviceability should also be checked by the appropriate service.

The main requirement in any such situation is not to panic and help others not to fall into it, uncoordinated and irrational actions can lead to trouble and major troubles.

New theory

Of course, the probability of an earthquake in Moscow is not so great, the seismic situation in the region is considered relatively calm. However, referring to historical facts, it can be concluded that periodically small vibrations of the earth still occur and can be felt by people. Some representatives of science predict stronger and more frequent earthquakes in Moscow in the near future. There is even a theory that in the depths of the bowels of the earth under the city there is a fault, which sooner or later will remind of its existence.

And from this note, the reader will learn that a noticeable increase in seismic activity should be expected in a couple of years. What practical conclusions follow from this is not at all important to us; but we want to explain in detail where the prophecy itself came from.

One day, Roger Bilham, a geophysicist from Colorado, had an idea. The exact circumstances of the idea's arrival are not known, but suppose, for example, that he was walking summer night through the forest park and watched the fireflies. Fireflies, if anyone did not know, often blink in sync. This is because every firefly at the sight of light from another firefly wants to quickly light up itself.

"Such are the properties of a system of oscillators," said Roger to himself, for he was a scientist and knew difficult words, — if these oscillators are positively interconnected”. Also, by the way, a well-known phenomenon works - the synchronization of monthly cycles in women who spend a lot of time together, but do not be distracted, we have chosen fireflies as an example. Since Dr. Bilham was a geophysicist, he suspected that his favorite type of oscillator, earthquakes, might have the same property. In a zone of seismic instability - for example, where one plate runs over another - earthquakes are inevitable from time to time, so these are also oscillators, albeit irregular ones. And it is quite possible that their offensive can be provoked by another earthquake that happened in another part of the continent. In this case, earthquakes, like fireflies, must synchronize to some common rhythm.

Bilham, along with his graduate student Rebecca Bendick, immediately sat down to shovel statistics. And I saw that the hypothesis was correct: large earthquakes (those stronger than 7 points) obeyed a 32-year cycle. Their frequency fluctuated one and a half times, while they did not at all want to be grouped along geographical lines. It all looked as if earthquakes were echoing among themselves across the entire globe: “Are you ready? Let's hang out together, let them be more frightened!

This result was published by Roger and Rebecca in very good scientific journal . But they did not rest on this. "What the heck?! the professor asked himself. How do they do it? Earthquakes can never talk to each other when one is in Chile and the other is in Sicily; but they may be spurred on by a common cause. And Bilham began to look for correlations of his 32-year cycle with all sorts of other cycles of our planet, what if something coincides?

Coincidentally. The 32-year cycle of large earthquakes fit very well with another cycle - the length of the day. The Earth's day may be shorter or longer by a millisecond due to a variety of reasons, including, for example, climate and ocean currents, but a regular cycle with a period of three decades is superimposed on all this mishmash. And when the day is longest, large earthquakes, according to scientists, happened more often. By the way, the Earth's magnetic field changes slightly in the same rhythm.

Here it must be said that no one knows how to predict earthquakes, because they are distinguished by terrifying irregularity. And as with any set of random data, you can find many different correlations with anything else, which, most likely, do not mean anything at all (the statistics are collected a little more, and the glamour disappears). In a word, correlation does not mean causation at all. Scientists always have this: they can only measure probabilities, and the theory connecting these probabilities has to be invented from the head. And there is always a risk that this theory will turn out to be just a fiction, as soon as more knowledge accumulates.

Roger Bilham his theory invented — and just reported it to the scientific community at the annual meeting of the American Geological Society in Seattle. Perhaps, he said, it's all about the earth's core. What exactly happens there is not clear, but it is possible upper layer molten iron in the core sometimes sticks to the top layer of the mantle. At the same time, it transfers part of its rotational moment to the mantle - this is the change in the length of the day. Naturally, the flow of metal affects the magnetic field. And since the core clings to the mantle, the force can be partially transferred to the earth's crust, causing it to shudder. In the end, dear reader, from you to the core of the Earth is only 2900 km. This is closer than from Moscow to London.

Well, theory is theory, but where is the practice? And here she is. The increase in the number of earthquakes lags behind the slowdown of the earth's rotation by 5-6 years. This means that we can finally predict the increase in natural disasters well in advance in order to include the corresponding costs in state budgets. Our planet began another slowdown cycle 4 years ago. This means that in a year or two the number of large earthquakes should reach the level of about 20 per year. By the way, this year there were only four of them - those that are stronger than 7 points. However, for those who died under the ruins or lost their homes, this was enough.

Let us repeat, just in case, that geographically all these events are separated. The probability that it will hit the Russian Plain is still small. We're more likely to have other catastrophes here. Political cataclysms, by the way, are also oscillators that can “talk” to each other and therefore are grouped into cycles - remember at least the Arab Spring, the Swamp Protest and the Revolution of Dignity. And the processes of national-state degradation today seem as inexorable as the movement lithospheric plates. But that's a completely different story.

The greenhouse effect stumbled
Vladimir Erashov

In recent decades, the greenhouse effect has become a byword, it is blamed for the growth of all earthly cataclysms. But here's a sensational surprise - THE GROWTH OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND THE NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES COMEDIATED ONLY UNTIL 2005, THEN THE WAYS DIFFERED, THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT CONTINUED TO GROW, THEN THE NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES STARTED TO DECREASE SHARPLY. Moreover, the statistics of earthquakes is as follows, we will give it below, which leaves no doubt about the presence of the indicated trends. Until 2005, the number of earthquakes on Earth increased many times, and then it also began to decrease many times over. Earthquakes in the present times are recorded by many tracking stations with great accuracy and very scrupulously. From this side, any error is ruled out in principle. Consequently, the indicated trend is an indisputable fact, a fact that allows us to look at the problem of climate warming in a very unconventional way.
First, let's give the statistics of earthquakes, this statistics was obtained after processing (summing up) the daily number of earthquakes stored in the archive of the site http://www.moveinfo.ru/data/earth/earthquake/select
Let us clarify that the site stores earthquakes of magnitude four and above, starting from 1974. It has not been possible to process all the statistics yet, it is very laborious, we present the statistics of January earthquakes, for other months the picture is similar.
Here are the stats:
1974 -313, 1975-333, 1976 -539, 1977 – 323, 1978 – 329, 1979 – 325, 1980 – 390, 1981 -367, 1982- 405, 1983 – 507, 1984 – 391, 1985 – 447, 1986 – 496, 1987 – 466, 1988 – 490, 1989 – 490, 1990 – 437, 1991 – 516, 1992 – 465, 1993 – 477, 1994 – 460, 1995 – 709. 1996 – 865, 1997 – 647, 1998 – 747, 1999 – 666, 2000 – 615, 2001 – 692, 2002 – 815, 2003 – 691, 2004 – 915, 2005 – 2127, 2006 – 971, 2007 – 1390, 2008 – 1040, 2009 – 989, 2010 – 823, 2011 – 1211, 2012 – 999, 2013 – 687, 2014 – 468, 2015 – 479, 2016 – 499.
And so in 2005 there was a radical change in the number of recorded earthquakes, if until 2005 the number of earthquakes, albeit with small stops, only grew, then after 2005 it began to steadily decline.
Main conclusion:
The catastrophic increase in the number of earthquakes that occurred on Earth until 2005 with greenhouse effect not connected in any way, it occurred for other reasons, these reasons have yet to be clarified.
An interesting fact - in 2005, in parallel with the increase in the number of earthquakes, a radical change occurred in the speed of the Earth's rotation, the Earth began to slow down its rotation. Now it is impossible to unequivocally state that these facts are connected with each other, but it is also very unlikely that they coincided by chance. Moreover, short-term bursts in the number of earthquakes correlate very well with bursts in the speed of the Earth's rotation.
From the works of the scientist Sidorenkov N.S. It is known that the speed of the Earth's rotation has a very good correlation with the temperature on the Planet, a higher speed of the Earth's rotation corresponds to a higher average temperature - this has been established experimentally extended period observations. Then a perfectly logical question:
Will the decrease in the speed of the Earth's rotation not only be followed by a decrease in the number of earthquakes, it has already followed, but also a decrease in average temperature, that is, do not these factors signal us about the beginning of the cooling era?
Apparently it is too early to put an end to this issue, but leave this question Without attention, Russian science has no right, the stakes are painfully high. Of course, no scientist can cancel the future cooling of the climate, which may be about to begin, but this cooling should not fall on Russia like snow on its head.
In this regard, I ask readers not to be lazy, but to re-read the article “Transparent Climate”.
Isn't it time Russian science wake up?
24.05. 2016

Moscow cannot be called a seismically unfavorable region. But from time to time, earthquakes of various power occur in the capital of our country. Residents of the metropolis, under which numerous subway lines are dug, are very worried about the possibility of a disaster. Moreover, in March 1977, a tangible earthquake had already happened in Moscow.

The capital regularly shakes

At all, main city Russia is faced with such situations is not as rare as it might seem at first glance. Throughout the history of our country, several earthquakes have occurred in the capital. The earliest state of emergency known to us is dated October 1, 1445.

Domestic researcher Nikolai Karamzin in his multi-volume work “The History of the Russian State” described how then, in the middle of the 15th century, the whole city shook, but “the movement was quiet and short-lived.” The reaction of the townspeople to this event also turned out to be different, some people did not pay any attention to the tremors of small power, but the devout people were very frightened, because they decided that other cataclysms would soon occur, and not far from the end of the world.

In 1893, geologist Ivan Mushketov compiled a catalog of earthquakes Russian Empire”, where he indicated that from 1445 to 1887 four such incidents were recorded in the capital.

For example, on October 14, 1802, the inhabitants of Moscow felt two tremors with an interval of 20 seconds. Residents of high-rise buildings noticed swinging chandeliers in their apartments, as well as slightly moved furniture. Workers who were there at the time of the emergency also spoke about the shaking of the walls of the Spassky Tower of the Kremlin.

The 20th century also did not stand aside. On November 10, 1940, the echoes of a powerful cataclysm that originated in the Carpathians, on the territory of Romania, reached Moscow. Then, at the epicenter of an earthquake with a power of 7.4 on the Richter scale, about a thousand people died. However, the capital of our country felt only 3-point shocks, in Russia there were no serious consequences.

Surprisingly, on December 28, 1945, seismic instruments recorded in Moscow the echoes of an earthquake that occurred near Antarctica. This strongest emergency in the history of long-term observations even displaced the capital's soil by 0.114 mm.

And on May 24, 2013, quite recently by geological standards, the city felt the vibrations earth's crust that occurred in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. Shocks with a power of 8.2 points will reach Moscow, having noticeably lost their strength: up to 3-4 divisions on the Richter scale. But due to resonant phenomena, residents of high-rise buildings noticed swinging chandeliers, oscillating doors and windows, tables and chairs moved from their places.

Power 7 points

But the most notable earthquake in the last six centuries occurred in Moscow on March 4, 1977. The epicenter of this cataclysm was in the region of the small Vrancea mountain range, located on the territory of Romania. And although the power of the tremors recorded in the capital was about 4 points, the capital's skyscrapers shook thoroughly. So, on the upper floors of the main building of Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov, the magnitude of the fluctuations reached almost 7 points on the Richter scale.

Residents of Teply Stan and some other areas of the city in the late evening (and the earthquake occurred at about 10:24 p.m.) ran out of their houses in a panic, noticing swinging chandeliers, shaking walls, cabinet doors opening on their own, and also hearing dishes rattle. At that time, some residential buildings and administrative buildings of the capital were seriously damaged: noticeable cracks appeared on the walls and ceilings. Fortunately, there were no casualties: none of the Muscovites or guests of the capital died or were seriously injured.

People didn't understand what was happening. Called relatives and friends to make sure they were all right. Then it turned out that even the inhabitants of Minsk and Leningrad felt the echoes of the Vrancha earthquake.

As the well-known seismologist Alexander Gorshkov, who holds the position of scientific secretary, explained International Institute theory of earthquake prediction and mathematical geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow is located on the tectonically stable Russian platform. Therefore, it does not threaten, for example, to fall underground, as many predictors frighten.

But there are still enough reasons for concern. For example, the chaotic metropolitan buildings do not take into account the intersection of small geological faults and cracks in the earth's rock, which are enough for such a large area as Moscow.

The state of emergency in Romania "reverberates" with us

The Carpathians are a seismically active zone. For example, Romania from the end of the 18th century to the present day has experienced 8 powerful cataclysms that had tragic consequences. The aforementioned Vrancea earthquake occurred on March 4, 1977 at 21:22 local time, it claimed the lives of 1,578 people, most of whom were residents of Bucharest. In the process, tens of thousands of Romanians and their Bulgarian neighbors were wounded and their homes destroyed.

At the epicenter of the earthquake, the power of tremors was 9 points. This cataclysm shook the entire Balkan Peninsula, and Moscow also got it. In general, in the capital of our country, to one degree or another, all such events taking place in the Carpathians “come around”. But the echoes of the Caucasian earthquakes, for example, never reach the capital, although their epicenter is geographically closer. I wonder why this is happening?

First, the Romanian cataclysms are by their nature deep-focused. They originate approximately 100-150 km below sea level. This is not even the earth's crust, but rather the upper mantle of our planet. Shocks coming from such a depth inevitably affect large areas.

Secondly, seismic waves that arise in the Carpathians move mainly to the northeast, while inevitably reaching Moscow. Or, speaking the language of geologists, isoseits (intensity lines) of Romanian earthquakes are extended in this direction.

And thirdly, these are the features of the structure of the East European platform. Obviously, the layers of the earth's crust are located parallel to the recorded seismic waves.

And while scientists are trying to learn how to predict earthquakes, modern science until they are able to accurately predict the place and power of future shocks.

Hello dear reader! I am glad to see you on the blog, the author of which is me, Vladimir Raichev. And today I want to tell you about the most powerful earthquake. This earthquake has not happened yet, but scientists are already predicting its occurrence.

Friends, I recommend that you read about the most destructive earthquakes in the history of mankind, which I wrote about in this article. But scientists say the worst earthquake is yet to come.

As a result of this natural disaster, the land will move more than 10 meters, and the rivers will begin to change their course.

A powerful earthquake and large floods threaten Bangladesh and India. More than 140 million people are at risk, geophysicists at Columbia University warn. Scientists explored tectonic plate boundaries in Bangladesh. They argue that geophysical stresses in this region have been increasing for more than 400 years.

Scientists warn that Bangladesh and India are threatened by an earthquake measuring 9 (maybe even much more) on the Richter scale. As a result, the land will move more than ten meters, and the rivers will change the direction of the flow, which will result in gigantic floods in the most densely populated region of the world.

When the earthquake will happen

Scholars acknowledge, however, that it is impossible to predict when disaster will come:

“We don't know how long it takes for the tectonic plates to unload, because we don't know exactly how much time has passed since the last earthquake. It can be very a short time, the next decades or even years, but it can happen within the next 500 years, scientists admit.

Where else can an earthquake occur?

Experts say that a similar threat appears on the other side of our globe. Stresses in the San Andreas fault, passing through California, are also constantly increasing. Geophysicists are convinced that 99% of the earthquake in this region will occur within the next 15-30 years, and its strength will reach 7 points.

Just imagine: an earthquake of 9 points! It's just deadly for India and Bengladesh. When we were in Goa, I noticed that even in this relatively wealthy state of India there is no seismic protection for buildings. Roughly speaking, a powerful earthquake will simply wipe this beautiful country off the face of the Earth.

For today, I'll probably finish scaring you. I hope that nothing bad will happen to our wonderful planet. Subscribe to blog updates so as not to miss anything interesting, share this article with your friends in in social networks. Until we meet again, bye bye.