Pinnacle line archive. How to catch the value coefficient on the Pinnacle line? How to find out about the line exit on Pinnacle
A value bet is a bet with an advantage over the line in terms of the likelihood of the outcome of events. That is, if the bookmaker believes that the probability of winning each of the tennis players is 50% to 50%, and you think that the probability is 55% to 45%, then you flirt with the outcome, the probability of which, in your opinion, is 55%. In this case, the bet is considered valuable, because you made it with an advantage over the line, or, as it is correct to say: with a positive checkmate. waiting. If you constantly bet with a positive mathematical expectation, then you will be in the black in the long run. (this advantage, of course, should cover the bookmaker's margin).
A table to help you:
For example, the match Querry - Raonic. If you evaluate the probability this event 50 to 50, you don’t see any advantage in any of the tennis players, then it will suit you, both a bet with odds over 2 on Querry, and a bet with odds over 2 on Raonic. Both rates will be in value. Those. in fact, while the odds were moving here, you could play 2+ for both Querry and Raonic, and both bets would be value if the real probability of the outcome of the event is 50/50.
From 9 a.m. to 12 a.m. on Querry it even reached 2.16
There are no values in "kick"!
And now let's dispel the myth that there are no values in Pinnacle, because. there are the most professional analysts who set the line as competently as possible. And for us, ordinary people who sit at home at the computer with a mug of beer, it is quite difficult to make a more accurate analysis than a professional team at a top bookmaker does.
Partly, this is true, but not all. Let's instead of long texts, I will give a couple good examples from last week, which will prove that there are values in Pinnacle.
Fabbiano - Clan. 2.22 for Fabbiano, 2.02 for Klan.
De Minaur - South. 1.79 on De Minaura, 2.60 on South
De Minaur - Johnson. 2.90 on De Minaura, 1.92 on Johnson.
1.79 for De Minaura or 2.6 for South? 2.22 for Fabbiano or 2.02 for Klan? 2.90 for De Minaura or 1.92 for Johnson?
One of the 2 coefficients is EXACTLY valued (simple math), and it may well be that both are valued.
In such cases, it cannot be said that there are no values if, as in the match with Querry - Raonic or Clan - Fabbiano, we are offered odds of more than two in both directions. Obviously not at the same time. And there are many such events, the coefficients move, and in a certain period of time, either at the beginning, or in the middle, or at the end, there are very often values. But these values disappear relatively quickly (from a couple of minutes to a couple of hours).
If the bookmaker has set incorrect quotes, then professional players will quickly shift the line in the right direction. But sometimes this line shifts too much, in my opinion, and you can already flirt in the other direction. Not so long ago there was a match between Shapovalov and Tim. And the betting mass began to load Shapovalov, although it was competent and correct, I was in solidarity with them, but they loaded it so much that they gave Tim 1.9, and this, in my opinion, was already too much. I counted Tim for 1.9 value bet, although before the match I had no idea to flirt with Tim. I hope this is sorted out.
What if the quotes don't change?
From experience, there are usually much fewer values in stable quotes. What is the chance that the value you found is not seen by most of the big players? Small. There is a chance when there is a nuance that everyone takes into account, and you, from experience, consider it “noise”, or vice versa. For example, del Potro's fatigue before the match with Raonic. Everyone believes that this will not affect in any way, and you believe that this will be important in the upcoming meeting.
Or, for example, Zverev - Seppi in Rotterdam (quotes on P1/P2 did not change significantly). Almost everyone forgot that at the tournament in Rotterdam they play balls from Technebrife, and not Head, which A. Zverev hates. As a result, both Ferrer and Seppi took almost all of Zverev's first innings into the court under the back. As a result, everything worked out for Seppi, since Sasha's serve did not work because of the balls. In general, like such mini-nuances.
But still, there are more values in those coefficients that have changed.
But how do you catch these rocks anyway? How to follow the movement of coefficients? How to be ready for the exit of the line in order to quickly pick up your value?
How to "catch" values in Pinnacle?
The main thing: you need to thoroughly understand your sport.
You need to watch matches, analyze all the data, even before the bookmaker rolled out the line, i.e. you need to determine the class of players, look at personal meetings, find out motivation, look at their last meetings, statistics, see how the player performs against left-handers / right-handers, how he performs in this tournament, what dynamics he has during the tournament, whether he is tired or not, how much time he spent on the court, etc. etc. In general, all your experience, all the data that you have, you collect and analyze. And, perhaps, you will form your own opinion about what probabilities of outcomes in upcoming event. For example, 70% for player 1, 30% for player 2.
And it's better to write it down somewhere before the line is released. For example, the Anderson-Coric line comes out. I'm ready to play if Coric +4 is offered for 1.9, or I'm ready to play Anderson if Kevin is offered for 1.75, for example. You will count Coric +4 as a value bet and Anderson for 1.75 you can also count as a value bet. Also, you think that there will be a struggle, and if they offer a total over 22 for 1.9, then you are also ready to play this bet, since in your opinion the probability of breaking the total is 65%. And before the line is rolled out for you, it is desirable that you already have your own outlines, sketches and thoughts that you are ready to play.
But if you do not fumble in sports, then it is difficult to do this. You will consider the bet a value bet, but in fact it will not be such.
Once you have your thoughts formed, you need to be ready for the line to come out, because after Pinnacle rolls out the line, you won't have very much time to play a value bet. If the bet is very valuable, then you will have about 5 minutes to play it. If it’s just a regular value bet, then you will have up to about 20-90 minutes to play the desired outcome.
Those. you need to be ready to exit the line.
How do I find out about the exit of the line on Pinnacle?
The easiest way is to arrange with a programmer to develop software for you that would give you signals when a line for this tournament has come out. That is, if a line has come out, let's say, to the Indian Wells semi-final, then you immediately receive a signal to your software and you can immediately go to Pinnacle and see what is happening there. But it is clear that this is a rather specific topic and this software will not be cheap for you. I didn’t see such options on the network, there are such beacons for football (the guys from mellbet made), but there are no such beacons for tennis available on the network. But let's assume that we don't have that kind of money yet, we're not ready to spend on it, and we're still not sure that something will work out for us in this area to spend the money. Therefore, in this case, we will try to catch the coefficient manually.
We catch our coefficient manually. How does this happen? We are running out of meetings, for example, ¼ finals. Finished their meeting and Del Potro and Raonic. After that, we have a certain countdown until the bookmaker makes his analysis and rolls out the line.
In most cases, the line is rolled out first, like the twin brothers, Marathon and 1xBet. They are usually followed by Pinnacle. Focusing on quotes, Pinky already and everyone else climbs out of the gorges with their quotes. We will focus on Marathon and Pinnacle.
Estimated line exit time P1/P2:
1st round- The Marathon rolls out about half a day after the draw. - Pinnacle 4-6 hours after the Marathon. Occasionally, 30 minutes-1 hour after the Marathon, if there is less than a day before the upcoming meetings.
2 round - ¼ finals- The marathon rolls out 2-4 hours after the end last meeting. Depends on the stage/tournament/time. Conditional Dubai (500-nick + day) will roll out faster than Sao Paulo (250-nick + night).- Pinnacle will roll out 15 minutes - 1 hour after the Marathon (sometimes a little faster than the Marathon)
½ final - final- Marathon 10 minutes - 1 hour after the end of the meetings. - Pinnacle, approximately 30 minutes after the Marathon.
This is all for the main outcomes. And what about odds, totals and other things?
Let's take a look at odds and totals:
At the Marathon, the main line of odds and totals (with odds around 1.9) comes out simultaneously with P1/P2. Those. all the time frames described above are also suitable for odds with totals. It remains to deal with pinnacle.
1st round- from 1 hour to 5 hours after the release of quotes on P1/P2. You can’t guess for sure: Pinnacle rolled out to Acapulco in 30 minutes, and to Dubai in 5 hours
2 round - final- In 2/3 of the cases, 1 hour after the W1/W2 exit at Pinnacle.
Around this time, you need to be online, you need to go to oddsportal.com or directly to Pinnacle and monitor when the line for the desired match comes out.
Minus: LIMITS. There are rather unpleasant limits for one bet in the line that just came out (fresh). For the ATP qualification, the challenger or the left match of the 1st round can be $300-500 each. But this does not mean that you cannot put down a larger amount. You just need to bet $500 10 times. Naturally, after each of your bets, the odds may change.
What to do if there are no value coefficients in the fresh line, in your opinion?
No, there is no judgment. In this case, we are waiting for the quotes to change and, perhaps, the change in quotes will lead to the fact that we still get, in our opinion, a value coefficient. But it’s a day before the match, it’s quite difficult to monitor the whole day every 30-60 minutes, how the odds change.
Therefore, we download the application from PinnacleSports, register, find the right match. We go to the desired match and see the main outcomes (Win1/Win2) and the main totals and odds, by clicking on some outcome, we will see a graph of odds changes.
For example, let's take the match: Del Potro - Raonic. Let's say we calculate odds = 3 for Raonic - we value. We enter the value of the value coefficient under the graph. If the coefficient on Raonic becomes equal to 3 (or more), then we will receive a notification. This is quite convenient because as soon as this quote reaches 3, you can quickly place a bet.
Works for W1/W2 and main outcomes by handicaps and totals. If you want to bet on a +3 handicap, then you need to follow it yourself.
This is not only suitable if you use and bet at Pinnacle, because. The vast majority of bookmakers move the line along the pinnacle, respectively, in other offices, quotes will most likely also change, only with a delay, which is even better for you. Therefore, if you bet somewhere in a completely different place, in a conditional FonBet, FonBet will still move the line along with the global community.
Actually, this is how the "capture" of valuev occurs. I call it trapping, because usually they do not lie around for a long time in a conspicuous place.
Let's recap. How do we look for values?
- You need to understand thoroughly in the chosen sport.
- We make an analysis of upcoming events.
- We assume which coefficients are valuable for us. We write them down somewhere in a notebook or somewhere in a laptop, on a phone.
- We are waiting for Pinnacle to roll out its line (approximate time intervals above)
- If, in your opinion, there are value coefficients, then we review everything again, if everything is ok, we flirt.
- If, in your opinion, there are no values, go to the Pinnacle application and enter, in our opinion, value coefficients into the alerts.
- If the quote reaches the value we need, then we will immediately receive a notification and we will be able to play the selected outcome (+ check if there is any news that could affect the growth of the odds).
All. I hope it was helpful. Good luck!
Many successful players, having sipped the bitter experience of playing in offices that reduce betting limits, are looking for all sorts of ways to beat the Pinnacle bookmaker
Many lose their nerves frequent purchases new accounts are not always justified. With a positive game, cuts for Mr. offices go one after another. And they are kicked out of the offices, regardless of whether you are an arber or an analyst. Then the attention of the players at the Pinnacle is focused. After all, Pinnacle is one of the few offices that does not pursue winners and honestly pays out all winnings, while never reducing the limits on bets.
I wrote about how to beat a bookmaker using information in the section on strategies*, and Pinnacle is also suitable for these strategies. With the right approach in this office, you can earn and earn a lot. Yes, I agree, with all equals, not as much and stable as in the Marathon, but you can earn. But all these methods are analytical. You need to sit for hours, find information on the network on teams, on injuries, disqualification and other important information. The main thing in this business is to get ahead of Pinnacle and other players in terms of quality and freshness of information, until the flow of money came there and the line of pinnacle did not fall. Or until the line markers correct the line themselves.
This job is not easy. In addition, we will not find many such rates with overpriced coffees along the pinnacle line every day. Finding a way to beat BK Pinnacle using a technical approach is another matter.
Many players, and I am no exception here, spend a lot of time testing various strategies for loyal bookmakers. The basis of such strategies is the movement of coefficients.
I posted all my tests and their results on my forum
So, from my long experiments, I concluded that the correctness of the pinnacle line in a certain period of time is close to perfection and maximum accuracy. Hands down temporarily. Still….. spend so much time on tests….. But my following observations added optimism. Somehow, while analyzing the positive mailings of Pinnacle bets from other privateers, I came to the conclusion that there are still ways to beat the Pinnacle bookmaker using technical analysis lines.
Let's take a closer look at the example of sending pinnacle rates by one author. The example is taken from the betonsuccess.ru betting exchange, and the mailing list is called fork.ARB.L www.betonsuccess.ru/sub/25186/fork.ARB.L/stats/all/
If you go to detailed analysis rates of this mailing, we see such a picture separately for offices.
It doesn't take a lot of intelligence to understand from the history of bets and comments on the mailing wall that all predictions are arb! The author of the mailing list fork.ARB.L puts sure bets between bookmakers that we can see from the list of a set of mailing houses. Including Pinnacle forks and even Sbobet with these offices.
As a result, after making 224 pinnacle bets, the author has a good profit of 9.9% from the turnover! Such a profit on this office is an impossible dream for many privateers. But the author of the mailing list, as we see, does it with a bang.
There is a certain nuance: all forks are taken with a profit of at least 5%. From here, a logical question arises: *How then to deal with the statement that Pinnacle cannot be beaten with surebets?*
It can be argued that 224 pinnacle bets is a very small distance and such a profit may be due to a mathematical deviation. But if you look closely, you can add another 86 Sbobet bets here. I put this office in second place in terms of the correctness of the line after Pinnacle
Then I found out that there is at least one more mailing list on concrete (it was added later) - the status of which is marked as forked * This is a mailing list called BetPS_V2.ARB.L. To date, the author has made 295 bets on Pinnacle and has a profit of + 1.4% from turnover. The total selection of rates (608 pcs.) smooths out the dispersion, gives a slightly lower profit, but still it is more than 5% of the turnover.
How is it possible to beat the Pinnacle bookmaker with surebets to these marques - for me on this moment mystery.
One can only speculate and guess about the approximate bid selection algorithm that each author uses.
- All surebets are taken at least 5% yield. More often 6-8%
- Rates do not go flat, but according to a fixed profit strategy.
It seems to me that for certain sports, the Pinnacle line is not ideal, because it’s not for nothing that some small tennis tournaments and football leagues were removed in Lately from the line. Yes, and the distribution data about which in question Once again prove that there are ways to beat BK Pinnacle today.
Who knows, maybe it’s worth taking the marathon as a basis and doing everything exactly the opposite - put down on surebets not 0.4-2%, but more than 5% and skip events where Pinnacle is the initiator, look and there will be good chances to achieve success. In any case, there is food for thought. Naidu free time I will definitely test this strategy.
If anyone has thoughts, comments or objections about this, comments are open to you.
The movement of odds in the bookmaker's office
You have probably noticed more than once how during the day the odds of bookmakers for various events have time to change several times. At the same time, it is very difficult to predict how and by what amount the odds in bookmakers will change. Sometimes the coefficient changes slightly, but sometimes it can change significantly. With the reasons for changing the odds in the line of bookmakers, as well as how to use it, we will try to figure it out in this article. Let me remind you that the value of the coefficient significantly affects the profit in the long-term game. Therefore, we recommend the most reliable and best bookmaker with the most high odds Pinnaclesports.
"Progruz" betting line
Changes in the odds of bookmakers occur for various reasons, such as injuries, team composition, weather conditions, motivation and a number of other important factors that were not taken into account during the initial setting of odds. However, there is one more important factor, which affects the change in quotes like no other. This factor is the "load" of the line. By “load” is meant the accumulation of a large amount of money on one of the outcomes. Naturally, bookmakers do not like it when, for reasons that are not entirely clear to them, a lot of money is bet on one sporting event. Firstly, it raises certain suspicions that the match is of a contractual nature, and secondly, it negatively affects the equalization of the bookmaker's profits. Naturally, the response of the bookmaker's office to the "load" of a certain coefficient is its decrease. However, it should be noted that not every change in the coefficient in the bookmaker's office is a "load".
Types of "progruz" in bookmakers
There are two main types of "progruz": amateur and "smart". In the first case, “loading” is carried out by simple sports betting enthusiasts, many of whom may not even be aware of the existence of “loading”. Amateur "loads" are usually formed by the spontaneous accumulation of money of a large number of players on one of the outcomes (usually the favorite). Moreover, this is done without deliberate collusion, but simply because "the favorite must win." Amateur “load” when adjusting their odds, bookmakers usually do not take into account.
Much more bookmakers are afraid of the smart “load” carried out by large professional players, cappers and syndicates. These people don't bet their money just like that, and if large sums“smart” money is “loaded” by some coefficient, then bookmakers try to quickly respond to these actions. It's not a secret for anyone that all bookmakers monitor each other's odds in order to always be aware of the "loads" and the movement of the lines of their competitors. Usually, in the case of a simultaneous movement of the odds in several offices by two or three points, the rest of the bookmakers try to immediately equalize the odds so as not to be the next victim of the “load”. Unlike the amateur "load", the smart "load" bends the line immediately and significantly.
Basic, driving force"smart predictions" are cappers, big players in bookmakers and members of syndicates. The goal of all these people is value betting, that is, betting on overestimated odds. Having found such coefficients, players bet on them large sums which causes the line to bend.
Major players and members of syndicates have the greatest influence on quotes. The first take their game "bank", which allows you to operate with considerable amounts. The second is the number of players. Players who subscribe to the forecast of a professional capper usually place bets on decent amounts. In this regard, the total "load" of the members of one such syndicate is very significant. More detailed information about the movement of "smart money" you will find.
Only a professional player can determine the value of a bet at bookmakers, so most bettors who want to profit favorable rates, join syndicates that purchase verified predictions professional players who have been forecasting for many years. Syndicate members tend to have an advantage over solo valui hunters, as forecasters are faster than most solo players. Consequently, members of the syndicate also make their bets earlier, which is a very important advantage, since after the first wave of "loading" the coefficient drops significantly. This means that those who bet later will be betting at a lower price, which by then will usually cease to be “value”.
Current movement of odds and loads on sporting events
The phrase "Money is everything" means that money is often the best tool to achieve goals. The same can be said about betting, as monitoring the movement of funds can help improve your results.
Many are convinced that The best way determine the result of a future competition - monitor cash flows. Understanding the movement of the market can help predict the future in everything from sports betting to major events.
A case in point occurred in 2003. The Pentagon sponsored an experiment called the "futures market for terrorism." The idea was to allow traders to speculate on terrorism, which would allow the security services to get the information they needed.
The idea that people could profit from placing bets on terrorist attacks sparked widespread public outcry and the experiment was canceled 24 hours after it was announced. The creation of a "futures market for terrorism" proves the claim that everything has a price.
Sports betting is no exception.
For example, a sharp reduction in the odds of betting on tennis players is a sign that many people have a deep confidence in the victory of one or another athlete.
Changing the odds does not guarantee he or she will win, but if you bet on a given match, you can decide who you trust more - the markets or yourself.
You should listen to when "money matters" at Pinnacle Sports, paying due attention to a phenomenon called "Pinnacle Lean".
Pinnacle Lean
Pinnacle Sports has a reputation for being the go-to site for understanding the betting market.
Many lazy bookmakers borrow Pinnacle Sports odds (adding higher margins) before opening their markets to customers. The "Voice of Money" at Pinnacle Sports is so important it's even given a name - Pinnacle Lean.
Why? Because Pinnacle Sports' unique business model is based on providing best odds and high limits, as well as the absence of common account restrictions. This attracts professional players who want to increase the potential profit.
Unlike other bookmakers, Pinnacle Sports uses its own professional traders to place early lines with reduced limits. What happens next depends on competent players who move the market and increase the limits over time.
If the match betting line moves, it always starts on the Pinnacle Sports website
Odds always move faster on Pinnacle Sports than on other bookmaker sites.
Our unbeatable odds and high limits, along with a no cap policy for high achievers, shows that Pinnacle Sports is a bookmaker for serious professionals.
In addition, Pinnacle Sports gives its bettors the ability to follow the movement of the odds within our dynamic lines that show the direction of the movement of the odds.
Therefore, Pinnacle Sports allows all players to bet with high limits and excellent odds. While our goal is to ensure a balanced game, savvy players sometimes manage to place two maximum limit bets on a selected team before the line starts to move.
Low margins ensure high volumes. This means that the coefficients are the result of the natural situation in the market. Traditional sports bookmakers with expensive markets between 105% and 112% receive lower volumes, so their prices do not reflect the real situation in the market. If you want to know the "fair" market price of a match, check out the Pinnacle Sports odds one hour before the match starts.
This information helps bettors to make money in the future by betting on odds that are better than Pinnacle Sports odds (out of the market), given that our site is a reliable guide to market opinion.
You can win more on all major sports if you find a handicap or total that is 1.5 points better than on Pinnacle Sports with similar odds.
