Global warming and its consequences. Global warming is a global problem
Average time to read: 9 minutes, 10 seconds
Part 1. What's going on?
Which is correct: climate change or global warming?
Both options are correct, but they have different meanings.
Global warming is just one type of climate change. The term "climate change" refers not only to rising temperatures, but also to changes in other climatic characteristics, such as fluctuations in rainfall.
President Trump has argued that scientists are no longer referring to global warming and are now calling it climate change because "the weather was very cold" during the winter. But his statement is wrong. Scholars have been using both terms for decades.
How much has the earth's temperature risen?
Just over 1°C is more than it looks.
Since 1980, when data were first recorded globally, and as of early 2017, the Earth has warmed by about 1°C. The number may not seem significant, but if you consider it as an average over the surface of the planet, the changes are palpable, which explains the melting of glaciers and the rapid rise in sea levels. If greenhouse gas emissions continue, scientists predict an increase average temperature Earth by 4°C, and then most of the land will become unsuitable for human life.
What is the greenhouse effect and how does it affect the climate?
It's hard to believe, but mankind has known about the greenhouse effect for more than a century.
In the 19th century, scientists discovered that certain gases trap heat radiated from the Earth, without which it would escape into space. The main role in this process is played by carbon dioxide: without it, the planet would be a frozen desert. In 1896, the first prediction was made that the temperature on the planet would rise due to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Today, their number in the atmosphere has increased by 43% compared to the pre-industrial period, and the average temperature of the Earth has increased by about the value that scientists predicted.
Can it be argued that it is man who is responsible for the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?
It is obvious.
There is compelling evidence, such as studies that have used radioactive radiation to determine the share of industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. Research results show that excess gas is the result of human activity. Carbon dioxide levels have always risen and fallen naturally, but these changes have lasted for thousands of years. Geologists say that people in the course of economic activity release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere much more intensively than nature has ever done.
Can natural factors be the cause of warming?
Nope.
Theoretically, it is possible. If solar radiation increased, this would undoubtedly increase the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere. But scientists have carefully studied the natural factors that affect the temperature of the Earth, and found that their changes would not be enough to entail such an effect. Warming is occurring at an extremely rapid rate on a geologic time scale, and no single factor can have a greater impact than human activity.
Why do people deny the fact of climate change?
The main reason is ideology.
Instead of negotiating market-driven climate change policy, some conservatives are denying global warming by challenging the scientific evidence.
President Trump has repeatedly claimed that scientists are engaged in a worldwide hoax to deceive the public, or that global warming was invented by China to destabilize American industry. The skeptics' arguments have become so dubious that even the oil and coal companies have distanced themselves from such discussions, although some of them still fund the election campaigns of politicians who hold such views.
Part 2. What are the consequences?
How big are we in trouble?
We are in trouble.
Scientists say that in the next 25-30 years the climate will become warmer and weather patterns more extreme. Coral reefs and other vulnerable habitats are already beginning to die out. If emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continue to rise uncontrollably, scientists fear serious consequences in the long term: disruption of the world order, large-scale migration, accelerating the sixth mass extinction of plants and animals in the history of the Earth, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and flooding most of the world's coastal cities. The emissions that create these risks are happening right now and are an occasion to reflect on the deep moral questions facing our generation.
Should I be concerned about climate change?
Are you rich enough to protect your descendants?
The harsh reality is that people, sometimes without realizing it, are already feeling the effects of climate change. For example, rising sea levels affected about 83,000 New Yorkers and New Jersey residents during Hurricane Sandy, which scientists believe would not have happened in a stable climate. Tens of thousands of people are already dying in heat waves that are only exacerbated by global warming. The refugee flows that have destabilized the political situation around the world have been linked in part to climate change. Of course, as with other socially significant problems, the first and heaviest blow will be borne by the poor.
By how much will sea level rise?
It is important not "how much it will grow", but how quickly.
Sea levels are rising rapidly and are currently rising at a rate of 0.3 meters per 100 years, forcing governments and property owners to spend tens of billions of dollars to combat coastal erosion. But if this trend does not change, the consequences of such an increase can be controlled, experts say.
The risk, however, is precisely that sea levels will continue to rise. Scientists who study the history of the Earth believe that in the worst case, water will rise by half a meter in a decade, although this is unlikely. Many experts believe that even if greenhouse gas emissions stop tomorrow, sea level rise of 4-6 meters is already inevitable and enough to flood many cities, unless trillions of dollars are spent to protect them. How long this will take is unclear. But if the emissions continue, it could eventually rise to 24-30 meters.
Are recent natural disasters related to climate change?
Some of them - yes.
Scientists have published strong evidence that global warming is the cause of heat waves. As the global sea level rises due to human emissions, tropical rainstorms and flooding become stronger. Global warming has exacerbated droughts in the Middle East and may have contributed to the recent drought in California.
In many other cases, the connection of natural phenomena, such as hurricanes, with global warming is not obvious or controversial. But modern methods Climate analysis allows scientists to constantly improve their knowledge of natural phenomena.
Part 3. What can we do?
Is there a solution to the problem?
Yes, but decisions are made too slowly.
Mankind has not taken any action for a long time, therefore, according to scientists, the situation is now disappointing. But as long as fossil fuels remain in the earth, it is not too late to act. Atmospheric heating will only slow down to potentially manageable rates if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero. The good news is that emissions are now being reduced in many countries as a result of programs such as fuel economy standards for cars, stricter building codes and emission limits for power plants. But experts are of the opinion that in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change, the process of switching to renewable energy sources must accelerate significantly.
What is the Paris Agreement?
Most countries have agreed to limit emissions in the future.
At the end of the last century, a group of scientists went to the Arctic. It is here that the history of our planet is perfectly preserved in the thickness of the ice. Ice is a time machine that takes us back in time, revealing a picture of climate change. Everything was preserved in the layers of ice - sand and volcanic dust, the concentration of isotopes and carbon dioxide. Therefore, it is easy to understand what happened to the atmosphere. If you make a graph of changes in ambient temperature and the level of carbon dioxide obtained in ice cores, then the cause of the crisis is modern world will become obvious. The level of carbon dioxide is directly dependent on the temperature level. In the twenty-first century, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere began to grow at a gigantic pace. Carbon dioxide is one of the known greenhouse gases. The thing is that greenhouse gases trap the heat radiated from the surface of our planet. Instead of leaving the atmosphere, heat remains in it. And the greenhouse effect causes global warming. What global warming can lead to and its consequences, you will learn in this article.
Causes of global warming
If the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to rise further, an unenviable future awaits humanity. Warming is inevitable, and scientists provide several evidence for this fact. If we look at the situation with the Arctic, we can find that it was the Arctic that received quite a lot of sunlight during the cold period. At first glance, it is a little strange why the abundance of the sun gives little heat, but the reason for everything is carbon dioxide. In Antarctica, during cold times, the level of carbon dioxide was low, and when it was warm in this area, the concentration of carbon dioxide was increased. The relationship between these two indicators was discovered long ago, but in the twenty-first century the situation has changed. So, after all, what will global warming and its consequences lead to? Today, the jump in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due not only to natural processes. The human factor played a big role.
Global warming is an irreversible process and is projected to reach an all-time high by the end of this century.
A century and a half ago, the industrial revolution began, the rapid development of production led to the fact that the level of carbon dioxide began to rise sharply. People burn fuel, fossils, cut down trees. That is why carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. If a person does not change anything, then the level of carbon dioxide will continue to grow, increasing by thirty percent every half century. At this rate, the temperature on the planet will reach a record high by the end of this century. But maybe not everything is so scary, and humanity will live well in the new conditions: in Russia they will begin to grow Exotic fruits, and winter holidays will become similar to summer ones? Let's turn to the opinion of the great minds of mankind.
Consequences of global warming
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The mechanisms that caused the melting of glaciers millions of years ago are still working today. Humanity is worried that our planet is approaching global melting several times faster than it was before. Once past the tipping point, climate change will be irreversible. An increase in average temperature by only 5-7 degrees can have a detrimental effect on the ecosystem and humans. Earth is on the verge of a planetary cataclysm. If effective and urgent action is not taken, perhaps our generation will already witness a sea level rise of six meters.
Today it is not known exactly when the process of melting ice will become irreversible. Some scientists believe that even now the destruction of the ice cover has passed critical point. True, according to the most optimistic forecasts, if you start taking measures, the situation can be saved. Of course, humanity can move cities deep into the continents, start building walls, but in case of failure, the world will change completely - social, economic disasters, chaos, the struggle for survival - that's what awaits us. Tomorrow may not be like today, but it all depends on us.
IN Lately Many scientists say that global warming is taking place on Earth. This process is noticed by each of us. After all, in last years the weather changes significantly: winters drag on, spring comes late, and summers are sometimes very hot.
But still, despite the fact that the effects of global warming have been recorded by many scientific observations, there are still endless discussions around this topic. Some scientists believe that in connection with the Earth, an offensive is expected " ice age". Others make disappointing predictions, while still others believe that the catastrophic consequences of global warming for our planet are highly controversial. Which of them is right? Let's try to understand this issue.
The concept of global warming
What definition can be given to this term? Global warming on Earth is a process that is a gradual increase in the value of the average annual temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere. It occurs due to an increase in concentration and also in connection with a change in volcanic or solar activity.
The problem of global warming began to excite the world community especially at the end of the 20th century. Moreover, many scientists attribute the rise in temperature to the development of industry that emits methane, carbon dioxide and many other gases into the atmosphere, causing the greenhouse effect. What is this phenomenon?
The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of air masses due to an increase in the concentration of water vapor, methane, etc. in them. These gases are a kind of film that, like the glass of a greenhouse, easily passes the sun's rays through itself and retains heat. However, there is a lot of scientific evidence that the causes of global warming on Earth lie not only in the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are many hypotheses. However, none of them can be accepted with 100% certainty. Consider those statements of scientists that deserve the most attention.
Hypothesis #1
Many scientists believe that the causes of global warming on our planet lie in an increase in the activity of the Sun. On this star, meteorologists sometimes observe the so-called which are nothing more than powerful magnetic fields. This phenomenon is what causes change. climatic conditions.
For centuries, meteorologists have been counting sunspots that appear on the Sun. Based on the data obtained, the Englishman E. Mondoro in 1983 made an interesting conclusion that during the 14-19 centuries, which is sometimes called the Little Ice Age, such a phenomenon was not recorded on the Celestial Sun. And in 1991, scientists from the Danish University of Meteorology studied the "sunspots" recorded throughout the 20th century. The conclusion was unambiguous. Scientists have confirmed the fact that there is a direct relationship between temperature changes on our planet and the activity of the Sun.
Hypothesis #2
The Yugoslav astronomer Milankovic suggested that global warming is largely caused by changes in the orbit in which the Earth revolves around the Sun. Affects climate change and the angle of rotation of our planet.
New characteristics in the position and movement of the Earth cause changes in the radiation balance of our planet, and, consequently, in its climate.
Influence of the World Ocean
There is an opinion that the culprit of global climate change on Earth is the oceans. Its water element is a large-scale inertial accumulator of solar energy. Scientists have established that there is an intense heat exchange between the thickness of the World Ocean and the lower layers of the atmosphere. This leads to significant climate change.
In addition, there are about one hundred and forty trillion tons of dissolved carbon dioxide in the ocean waters. Under certain natural conditions this element enters the layers of the atmosphere, also influencing the climate, creating a greenhouse effect.
Action of volcanoes
According to scientists, one of the causes of global warming is volcanic activity. Eruptions release huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This is what causes the increase in average annual temperatures.
This mysterious solar system
One of the reasons for the global warming of the climate on Earth, according to scientists, is the interactions that are not fully understood between the Sun and the planets that are part of its system. Changes in temperatures on Earth arise due to different distributions and many types of energy.
Nothing can be changed
Among scientists, there is an opinion that global warming occurs on its own, without human influence and any external influences. Such a hypothesis also has the right to exist, since our planet is a large and very complex system with a lot of various structural elements. Adherents of this opinion even built various mathematical models confirming the fact that natural fluctuations in the surface air layer can range from 0 to 4 degrees.
Are we to blame for everything?
The most popular cause of global warming on our planet is the ever-increasing human activity, which significantly changes the chemical composition of the atmosphere. As a result of the work of industrial enterprises, the air is increasingly saturated with greenhouse gases.
Concrete figures speak in favor of this hypothesis. The fact is that over the past 100 years, the average air temperature in the lower layers of the atmosphere has increased by 0.8 degrees. For natural processes, this speed is too high, because earlier such changes took place over more than one millennium. Moreover, in recent decades the rate of increase in air temperature has increased even more.
Manufacturers gimmick or real?
To date, the following question cannot be completely resolved: "Global warming - a myth or a reality?" There is an opinion that climate change is nothing more than a commercial project. The history of the consideration of this topic began in 1990. Before that, humanity was frightened by a horror story about ozone holes, which are formed due to the presence of freon in the atmosphere. The content of this gas in the air was negligible, but, nevertheless, American refrigerator manufacturers took advantage of this idea. They did not use freon in the manufacture of their products and waged a merciless war against competitors. As a result, European companies began to replace cheap freon with an expensive analogue, increasing the cost of refrigerators.
Today's idea of global warming plays into the hands of many political forces. After all, concern for the environment can bring many supporters into their ranks, which will allow them to gain the coveted power.
Scenarios for the development of events
The predictions of scientists about what consequences climate change will have for our planet are ambiguous. Due to the complexity of the processes taking place on Earth, the situation can develop according to various scenarios.
Thus, there is an opinion that global climate change will occur for centuries and even millennia. This is due to the complexity of the relationship between the oceans and the atmosphere. These most powerful accumulators of energy will not be able to rebuild in the shortest possible time.
But there is another scenario for the development of events, according to which global warming will occur relatively quickly on our planet. By the end of the 21st century, the air temperature will increase compared to 1990 by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees. At the same time, intensive melting of the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin. As a result, the waters of the oceans will increase their level. This process is still observed today. So, from 1995 to 2005. The water column of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm. If this process does not slow down, flooding due to global warming will become inevitable for many coastal lands. This will especially affect the populous territories located in Asia.
Climate change processes in the western United States and northern Europe will increase the frequency of storms and the amount of precipitation. Hurricanes will rage on these lands twice as often as in the 20th century. What will be the results of global warming in such a scenario for Europe? In its central territories, the climate will become changeable with warmer winters and rainy summers. in Eastern and Southern Europe(including in the Mediterranean) there will be heat and drought.
There are also forecasts of scientists, according to which the global change in climatic conditions in some parts of our planet will lead to short-term cooling. This will be facilitated by the slowdown of warm currents caused by the melting of ice caps. Moreover, a complete stop of these huge carriers of solar energy is also possible, which will cause the onset of the next ice age.
The most unpleasant scenario for the development of events could be a greenhouse disaster. It will be caused by the transition into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide contained in the water column of the oceans. In addition, as a result, methane will begin to be released from the permafrost. At the same time, a monstrous film will form in the lower layers of the Earth's atmosphere, and the temperature increase will take on catastrophic proportions.
Consequences of global climate change
Scientists believe that the rejection of drastic measures to reduce greenhouse emissions will lead to an increase average annual temperature by 1.4-5.8 degrees by 2100. The effects of global warming will increase the periods of hot weather, which will become more extreme in their temperature regime and longer. Moreover, the development of the situation will be ambiguous in different regions of our planet.
What are the predicted effects of global warming on the animal world? Penguins, seals and polar bears, accustomed to living in polar ice. At the same time, many species of plants and animals will simply disappear if they cannot adapt to new living conditions.
Also, global warming will cause global climate change. According to scientists, this will cause an increase in the number of floods resulting from hurricanes. In addition, summer precipitation will decrease by 15-20%, which will cause desertification of many agricultural areas. And due to rising temperatures and water levels of the oceans, the boundaries natural areas will move north.
What are the consequences of global warming for humans? In the short term, climate change threatens people with problems with drinking water, with the cultivation of agricultural land. They will also lead to an increase in the number of infectious diseases. Moreover, the most serious blow will be dealt to the poorest countries, which, in principle, do not bear any responsibility for the upcoming climate change.
According to scientists, about six hundred million people will be put on the brink of starvation. By 2080, the people of China and Asia could experience an ecological crisis caused by changing rainfall patterns and melting glaciers. The same process will lead to the flooding of many small islands and coastal areas. In the area prone to floods, there will be about a hundred million people, many of whom will be forced to migrate. Scientists predict the disappearance of even some states (for example, the Netherlands and Denmark). It is likely that part of Germany will also be under water.
As for the long-term perspective of global warming, it can become the next stage of human evolution. Our distant ancestors faced similar problems during those periods when the air temperature increased by ten degrees after the Ice Age. Such changes in living conditions led to the creation of today's civilization.
Consequences of climate change for Russia
Some of our fellow citizens believe that the problem of global warming will affect only residents of other states. After all, Russia is a country with a cold climate, and an increase in air temperature will only benefit it. The cost of heating housing and industrial facilities will decrease. Agriculture also has its benefits.
What, according to scientists' forecasts, is global warming and its consequences for Russia? Due to the extent of the territory and great variety natural and climatic zones existing on it, the results of changes in weather conditions will manifest themselves in different ways. In some regions they will be positive, while in others they will be negative.
For example, on average, the heating period should be reduced by 3-4 days across the country. And this will provide tangible savings in energy resources. But at the same time, global warming and its consequences will have another effect. For Russia, this threatens to increase the number of days with high and even critical temperatures. In this regard, the cost of air conditioning industrial enterprises and buildings will increase. In addition, the growth of such heat waves will become an unfavorable factor that worsens the health of people, especially those who live in large cities.
Global warming is becoming a threat and is already creating problems with the melting of permafrost. in such areas it is dangerous for transport and engineering structures, as well as for buildings. In addition, with the thawing of permafrost, the landscape will change with the formation of thermokarst lakes on it.
Conclusion
There is still no unequivocal answer to the following question: "What is global warming - a myth or a reality?". However, this problem is quite tangible and deserves close attention. According to scientists, it especially made itself felt in 1996-1997, when many weather surprises were presented to mankind in the form of about 600 different floods and hurricanes, snowfalls and heavy rains, droughts and earthquakes. During these years, the elements caused colossal material damage in the amount of sixty billion dollars and claimed eleven thousand human lives.
The solution to the problem of global warming should be at the international level, with the participation of the world community and with the assistance of the government of each of the states. To preserve the health of the planet, humanity needs to adopt a program of further action, providing for monitoring and accountability at each of its stages of implementation.
By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase can reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to the optimistic one, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable for him, and this is true. Living in the middle lane, it's hard to feel. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the impact and harm of global warming.
On currently The average temperature on Earth is about 15 degrees. During the ice age, it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, globally, humanity will feel the problem of warming when the average temperature of the atmosphere exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.
Causes of global warming
All over the world, experts identify many reasons due to which global warming occurs. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.
Greenhouse effect
The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. The growth in the intensity of production, the number of factories, cars, the population of the planet affects the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitric oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density of the lower layers of the atmosphere increases. Greenhouse gases pass through themselves solar energy, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off, these gases trap, not releasing into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.
The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases in one form or another are emitted by almost any industry. Most of the emissions are carbon dioxide, it is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. A large amount of emissions enter the atmosphere after conventional waste incineration.
Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that emit oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases are emitted not only by industrial enterprises, but also by agricultural ones. For example, cattle farms. Ordinary barns are suppliers of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminants consume a huge amount of plants per day and produce gases when they digest it. This is called "ruminant flatulence". Methane in the share of greenhouse gases is less than 25%, however, than carbon dioxide.
Another anthropogenic factor rise in the Earth's average temperature is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. They, being in the atmosphere, absorb solar energy, heating the air and interfering with the warming of the surface of the planet. In the event of a fall, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the ground. For example, this effect has a negative impact on the snows of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot, when they fall, heat the snow and lead to melting.
natural causes
Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, together with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory has been subject to much criticism. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in the average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity really warmed the Earth's atmosphere, then this would affect all layers, and not just the lower one.
Another natural cause is called volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release of large amounts of water vapor. In addition, volcanic ash enters the atmosphere, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.
Consequences of global warming
The harm of the consequences of global warming can be tracked now. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's oceans has risen by 20 centimeters due to the melting of the Arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Behind last year from the main ice mass there are several large icebergs. Also, due to global warming, heat waves in summer now cover 100 times more area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers were on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is already 10%.
The dangers of global warming
If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to environmentalists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some reports, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will entail floods and other climate disasters. So, according to some forecasts, almost half of the entire land will fall into the flood zone. Changes in water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.
The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated change in the way of life of people, savings, all kinds of crises, and a change in the structure of consumption.
Another consequence of this warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within the continents, it will no longer be possible to conduct the usual types of agro-industry in a particular territory. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.
Warming Island
A good example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having parted, it turned out that instead of connecting there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".
Fight against global warming
The main direction in the fight against global warming is an attempt to limit the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. So the largest environmental organizations, such as Greenpeace or WWF, advocate the rejection of investments in fossil fuels. Also, various kinds of actions are held in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.
Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement was concluded to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It was signed by 192 countries of the world. Some have made commitments to reduce emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine have pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at the level of the 1990s.
In 2015, France signed the Paris Agreement, which replaced the Kyoto “Paris Agreement”, and 96 countries ratified it. The agreement also obliges countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the rate of increase in the average temperature of the planet to 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. The agreement commits countries to move towards a carbon-free green economy by 2020, reduce emissions and allocate money to the climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US got out of it.
What threatens humanity with warming, and what to do to prevent a catastrophe
In recent years, the climate on Earth has changed markedly: some countries suffer from abnormal heat, others from too harsh and snowy winters, unusual for these places.
Ecologists talk about global climate change, including an increase in the average annual temperature, causing the melting of glaciers, and rising sea levels. In addition to warming, there is also an imbalance in all natural systems, which leads to a change in precipitation patterns, temperature anomalies and an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.
According to scientists, for the ten months of 2015, the average temperature of the planet was 1.02 ° C higher than that recorded in the 19th century (when monitoring of global temperature changes began). The one degree threshold was exceeded for the first time in modern history. Scientists agree that it is human activity - the burning of oil, gas and coal - that leads to greenhouse effect, which causes an increase in the average temperature. Experts point out that between 2000 and 2010 there was the most powerful increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last 30 years. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2014 their concentration in the atmosphere reached an all-time high.
What threatens climate warming
If states do not start seriously dealing with the problem of environmental protection, by 2100 the temperature on the planet may rise by 3.7-4.8 °C. Climatologists warn: irreversible consequences for the environment will come already with a warming of more than 2 ° C.
In order to draw maximum attention to climate problems, the UN has attracted not only politicians and scientists, but also celebrities to the discussion. Hollywood actor Robert Redford warned in a statement that "the time for half-measures and climate change denial" is over for the international community.
What consequences await the planet if it is not possible to stop the increase in temperature?
Natural disasters
Climate zones will shift, weather changes will become more dramatic ( very coldy, followed by sudden thaws in winter, an increase in the number of abnormally hot days in summer). The frequency and strength of abnormal events such as droughts and floods will increase.
The connection between climate change and the occurrence of natural disasters was proved by American scientists who found traces of warming when studying tropical cyclones in pacific ocean, unusually high summer temperatures in Europe, China, South Korea and Argentina, and forest fires in the US state of California. Climate change has also catalyzed droughts in Africa and the Middle East, snowstorms in Nepal, and heavy rains that have caused flooding in Canada and New Zealand.
Territories unsuitable for life
Some countries may become uninhabitable by 2100 due to increased humidity and high average temperatures. According to a study by American scientists, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and other Middle East countries.
According to the calculations of climatologists, at the current growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions, by 2070 the average air temperature in the countries of the Persian Gulf may reach 74-77 °C. This will make the areas unsuitable for humans. An exception may be large metropolitan areas with a developed air conditioning system. But even in them people will be able to leave the house only at night.
Impact on biodiversity
According to some scientists, we are in the middle of the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. And this time this process is caused by human actions. If climate warming is not stopped, many ecosystems, the species of living beings that enter them, will become less diverse, less saturated.
There are predictions of extinction of up to 30-40% of plant and animal species, as their habitat will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.
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a lack of drinking water, famine and epidemics
UN experts warn that warming will negatively affect crop yields, especially in underdeveloped countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America leading to food problems. According to scientists, by 2080 the number of people facing the threat of hunger could increase by 600 million people.
Another important consequence of climate change may be the lack of drinking water. In dry regions ( central Asia, mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.) the situation will be further aggravated due to the reduction in precipitation.
Starvation, lack of water, and insect migration can lead to an increase in epidemics and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and fever in the northern regions.
Climate change can affect not only human health, but also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water and food resources.
Sea level rise
One of the most tangible effects of global warming is likely to be the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. Millions of people along the coast will die from frequent flooding or be forced to relocate, UN analysts predict.
According to the expert community, sea level rise in the 21st century will be up to 1 m (in the 20th century - 0.1-0.2 m). In this case, lowlands, coastal areas and small islands will be the most vulnerable.
The Netherlands, Bangladesh and small island states such as the Bahamas and Maldives are the first to fall into the risk zone.
Significant areas may be flooded in countries such as Russia, USA, UK, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Iraq, Thailand and Vietnam. Serious damage threatens China, where about 140 million people could lose their homes, and Japan, where more than 30 million people, a quarter of the country's population, could flood the houses.
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Estimated consequences for the Russian Federation
The climate in Russia is also noticeably changing. Sharp weather changes, abnormally high and abnormally low temperatures are more often observed.
According to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, in our country from 1990 to 2010 the number of natural disasters, such as floods, mudflows and hurricanes, has almost quadrupled and continues to increase by about 6-7% per year. Ecologists predict that their number could double over the next ten years.
According to the World Bank, the annual damage from the impact of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia is 30-60 billion rubles.
According to the calculations of Roshydromet, in Russia the average annual temperature is growing 2.5 times faster than in the whole world. The most active warming is in the northern regions of the Russian Federation, they add to the Ministry of Emergencies. So, in the Arctic end of XXI century, the temperature can rise by 7 ° C. By the middle of the 21st century, the average winter temperature throughout Russia may increase by 2-5 °C. The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and amount to 1-3 ° C by the middle of the century, rescuers believe.
The head of Roshydromet, Alexandra Frolova, believes that climate warming for Russia brings not only risks, but also benefits.
Warming threats:
An increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, floods, cases of dangerous Agriculture waterlogging of the soil - in others;
Increased fire hazard in forests and peatlands;
Violation of the habitual way of life of indigenous northern peoples;
Degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications;
Violation of the ecological balance, displacement of some biological species by others;
Increasing energy costs for air conditioning in summer season for a large area of the country.
Positive changes:
Warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and facilitate the development of offshore oil and gas fields;
The heating season will be shortened, and, accordingly, energy consumption will be reduced;
The northern border of agriculture will shift to the north, which will increase the area of agricultural land, especially in Western Siberia and the Urals.
Extinguishing peat bogs in the Tver region, 2014
© TASS/Sergey Bobylev
What to do
According to scientists, it is unlikely that humanity will be able to completely prevent climate change. However, the international community is able to contain the rise in temperature in order to avoid irreversible environmental consequences. To do this, it is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy and develop a strategy to reduce risks due to warming.
Adapting the life of society to new conditions
Plans to minimize damage from climate change should cover all areas of human activity, including health, agriculture and infrastructure.
In Russia, for example, it is necessary to change storm sewers, prepare for storm winds (recalculate the strength of structures), change the fire extinguishing system - droughts increase the fire hazard, Alexey Kokorin explains. In Kyrgyzstan, the snow border has risen in the Tien Shan, which caused problems with grazing - measures must be taken to preserve pastures.
However, different states have different opportunities to offset the impact of climate change. So, for example, Holland and Bangladesh are experiencing the same problems: there are more storms, the sea level has risen. But Holland already has a plan of action, they know how they will strengthen the dams, where they will get the funds from. But in Bangladesh, none of this, with 10 times the coastline and 10 times the population, and in dangerous areas live 100 million people who will need to be relocated somewhere.
Thus, adds Kokorin, most of the measures needed for adaptation are quite simple and clear, but their implementation requires funds and effective planning.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Climatologists estimate that to keep temperature rises within 2°C, countries need to halve global emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 levels, and cut to zero by the end of the 21st century.
According to PwC analysts, since 2000, Russia has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 3.6% per year, the UK - by 3.3%, France - by 2.7%, the USA - by 2.3%. The average annual reduction in carbon emissions over the past 15 years was 1.3%.
However, these efforts are not enough. To prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions until 2100 should be at least 6.3%.
This means, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, on the other hand, to switch to alternative energy sources.
sun or atom
Several sources of energy are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - the sun, wind, tides. Hydropower has physically visible limits (there are not so many rivers on Earth), wind and tides can only be used locally, so the main energy sources of the future are the Sun and the atom, says Professor Rafael Harutyunyan, Deputy Director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to the expert, based on the current level of technology development, nuclear energy looks more solid: the share of alternative renewable energy sources now accounts for 2% of world consumption, and the atom already provides 16% of the world's electricity (in developed countries - more than 70%, in the north - western Russia - 40%).
The advantage of nuclear energy is that it is a large energy industry, these are power plants for large industrial agglomerations, large cities.
The trump card of solar energy is the almost universal availability and dynamic development of technologies. In addition, solar energy is improving and can become much more economical, unlike nuclear energy, which can no longer be significantly cheaper, Aleksey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia, argues with supporters of the atom.
Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation and his representative on climate issues Alexander Bedritsky believes that it is impossible to completely solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy sources. The expert cited solar and wind energy as an example. According to him, it is impossible to provide industry with energy using solar panels in northern countries, such as Russia, where there is sun in the north for half a year, and no sun for half a year.
The same, according to Bedritsky, applies to wind energy. It is suitable for individual consumption, but not for industrial production. Windmills are used in many regions, mainly in coastal areas, but there is no continuous coverage of the territory.
In Russia, adds climate adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, about a third of the energy industry is based not on mineral raw materials, but on nuclear and hydropower.
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Who will pay
Negotiations to combat climate change are complicated by disagreements between rich and poor countries.
The transition to environmentally friendly energy sources requires significant costs. Developed countries insist that all negotiators contribute to these efforts. In turn, developing countries believe that industrial powers, which have long been polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, are responsible for climate change.
According to Secretary General UN Ban Ki-moon, a special responsibility in the fight against climate change and the consequences of this phenomenon lies with developed countries. In 2010, the Green Climate Fund was created to help developing countries under the auspices of the UN. Funds are allocated mostly by developed countries. It is planned that by 2020 the volume of the fund should be $100 billion, but so far it has just over $10 billion.
Now developed countries are experiencing a serious burden on state budgets, so they prefer climate financing to go through private investment or loans and borrowings, Alexey Kokorin explains. Vulnerable countries are not ready to take loans.
Despite the fact that Russia has no obligation to contribute funds to the Green Climate Fund, Moscow is ready to support it on a voluntary basis, adds Alexander Bedritsky. First of all, this concerns the CIS countries.
In November 2015, the fund approved $168 million for the first eight projects to help developing countries adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. These are three projects in Africa, three in the Asia-Pacific region and two in Latin America.
Waste incineration in India
© AP Photo/Anupam Nath
Paris conference and new agreement
On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.
April 22, 2016 1 . From Russia, the document was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin.
The agreement will enter into force after it has been ratified by 55 countries that account for at least 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.
Basic provisions of the document
The main goal of the new agreement, which was confirmed by all participating countries, is to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thereby keep the increase in the average temperature on the planet within 1.5-2 °C.
Currently, the efforts of the world community are not enough to curb warming, the document notes. Thus, the level of cumulative emissions risks reaching 55 gigatonnes in 2030, while, according to UN experts, this maximum mark should not exceed 40 gigatonnes. "In this regard, the countries participating in the Paris Agreement need to take more intensive measures," the document emphasizes.
The agreement has a framework character, its participants have yet to determine the volume of greenhouse gas emissions, measures to prevent climate change, as well as the rules for implementing this document. But the key provisions have already been agreed upon.
The parties to the agreement undertake:
Adopt national plans for emission reduction, technological upgrading and adaptation to climate change; these obligations of the state must be reviewed upward every five years;
Consistently reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; for this, by 2020 it is necessary to develop national strategies for the transition to a carbon-free economy;
Allocate $100 billion annually to the Green Climate Fund to help underdeveloped and most vulnerable countries. After 2025, this amount should be revised upwards "taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries";
To establish an international exchange of "green" technologies in the field of energy efficiency, industry, construction, agriculture, etc.
US President Barack Obama
The agreement aims to reduce the carbon pollution that threatens our planet, as well as create new jobs and grow the economy through investment in low-carbon technologies. This will help delay or avoid some of the worst effects of climate change.
US President Barack Obama
By the end of the summit, 189 states had submitted preliminary plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The five top emitting countries provided the following reduction figures from 1990:
European Union - 40%;
Russia - 30%;
USA - 12-14%;
China - 6-18%;
Japan - 13%.
Officially, countries must announce their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the day the document is signed. The most important condition is that they must not be lower than the already declared goals in Paris.
To monitor the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the obligations assumed by the countries, it is proposed to form a special working group. It is planned to start work in 2016.
Disagreements and ways to resolve them
"should" replaced with "should"
At the stage of discussion of the treaty, Russia advocated that the agreement be legally binding on all countries. The United States opposed this. According to an unnamed diplomat quoted by the Associated Press, the US delegation insisted that the word "should" be replaced by "should" in the final document in the section on emissions reductions.
This structure of the treaty avoids the ratification of the document in the US Congress, which is extremely skeptical about Obama's environmental policy.
No specific obligations
Another RF proposal was to share responsibility for emissions among all countries. However, this was opposed by developing countries. In their opinion, most of the burden should fall on the developed countries, which for a long time were the main sources of emissions. Meanwhile, now the top five "polluters" of the planet, along with the US and the EU, include China and India, which are considered developing countries. Russia is in fifth place in terms of CO2 emissions.
