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Air pollution by natural and anthropogenic emissions. The role of meteorological factors in air pollution

The level of surface concentration of harmful substances in the atmosphere from stationary and mobile objects of industry and transport with the same mass emission can vary significantly in the atmosphere depending on technogenic and natural-climatic factors.

TO technogenic factors include:

intensity and volume of emissions of harmful substances;

· the height of the mouth of the source of emissions from the surface of the earth;

the size of the area where pollution occurs;

· level of technogenic development of the region.

TO natural and climatic factors include:

Characteristics of the circulation regime;

thermal stability of the atmosphere;

Atmospheric pressure, air humidity, temperature regime;

temperature inversions, their frequency and duration;

wind speed, frequency of air stagnation and weak winds (0 - 1 m/s);

duration of fogs, terrain relief, geological structure and hydrogeology of the area;

Soil and plant conditions (soil type, water permeability, porosity, granulometric composition of soils, soil cover erosion, state of vegetation, rock composition, age, quality class);

· background values of indicators of pollution of natural components of the atmosphere, including existing noise levels;

the state of the animal world, including the ichthyofauna.

IN natural environment the air temperature, speed, strength and direction of the wind are constantly changing, so the spread of energy and ingredient pollution occurs in constantly new conditions. The following synoptic situation is unfavorable - an anticyclone with a gradientless field of isobars in intermountain closed basins. The processes of decomposition of toxic substances in high latitudes at low values of solar radiation slow down. Precipitation and high temperatures, on the contrary, contribute to the intensive decomposition of toxic substances.

In Moscow, for example, meteorological conditions unfavorable in terms of air pollution associated with air stagnation and inversions are created in the summer, mainly at night with weak northern and eastern winds.

With the general pattern of reducing the level of pollution with distance from the road, the decrease in the noise level occurs due to the dispersion of sound energy in the atmosphere and its absorption by the surface cover. Dissipation of exhaust gases depends on the direction and speed of the wind (Fig. 5.1).

Higher surface temperatures during the day cause the air to rise upwards, resulting in additional turbulence.

At night, temperatures near the ground are cooler, so turbulence is reduced. This phenomenon is one of the reasons for the better sound propagation at night compared to daytime. Exhaust gas dispersion, on the other hand, is reduced.

The ability of the earth's surface to absorb or radiate heat affects the vertical distribution of temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere and leads to temperature inversion (deviation from adiabaticity). An increase in air temperature with height leads to the fact that harmful emissions cannot rise above a certain ceiling. Under inversion conditions, the turbulent exchange weakens, and the conditions for the dispersion of harmful emissions in the surface layer of the atmosphere worsen. For a surface inversion, the repeatability of the heights of the upper boundary is of particular importance, for an elevated inversion, the repeatability of the lower boundary.

The combination of natural factors that determine the possible level of air pollution is characterized by:

· meteorological and climatic potential of atmospheric pollution;

the height of the mixing layer;

· repeatability of surface and elevated inversions, their power, intensity;

· repeatability of air stagnation, calm layers up to different heights.

The drop in concentrations of harmful substances in the atmosphere occurs not only due to the dilution of emissions by air, but also due to the gradual self-purification of the atmosphere. In the process of self-purification of the atmosphere occurs:

1) sedimentation, i.e. deposition of emissions with low reactivity (solid particles, aerosols) under the action of gravity;

1) neutralization and binding of gaseous emissions in the open atmosphere under the influence of solar radiation or biota components.

Certain potential self-healing properties environment, including the purification of the atmosphere, is associated with the absorption of up to 50% of natural and man-made emissions of CO 2 by water surfaces. Other gaseous air pollutants also dissolve in water bodies. The same thing happens on the surface of green spaces: 1 hectare of urban green spaces absorbs the same amount of CO 2 within an hour that 200 people exhale.

Chemical elements and compounds contained in the atmosphere absorb some of the compounds of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon. Putrefactive bacteria in the soil decompose organic matter, releasing CO 2 into the atmosphere. On fig. 5.2 shows a scheme of environmental pollution by carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) contained in vehicle emissions, transport infrastructure facilities, and its purification from these substances in environmental components.

Pollution atmospheric air- any change in its composition and properties that has a negative impact on human and animal health, the condition of plants and ecosystems. Air pollution is one of the most significant problems of our time.

The main pollutants (pollutants) of atmospheric air formed in the process of industrial and other human activities - sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and particulate matter. They account for about 98% of the total emissions of harmful substances. In addition to the main pollutants in the atmosphere of cities and towns, there are more than 70 types of harmful substances, including - formaldehyde, hydrogen fluoride, lead compounds, ammonia, phenol, benzene, carbon disulfide, etc.. However, it is the concentrations of the main pollutants (sulfur dioxide, etc.) that most often exceed the permissible levels.

release into the atmosphere of the four main pollutants (pollutants) of the atmosphere - emissions into atmosphere of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. In addition to these main pollutants, many other very dangerous toxic substances enter the atmosphere: lead, mercury, cadmium and other heavy metals(emission sources: cars, smelters, etc.); hydrocarbons(CnHm), among them the most dangerous is benzo (a) pyrene, which has a carcinogenic effect (exhaust gases, boiler furnaces, etc.), aldehydes, and, first of all, formaldehyde, hydrogen sulfide, toxic volatile solvents(gasolines, alcohols, ethers), etc.

The most dangerous air pollution - radioactive. At present, it is mainly due to globally distributed long-lived radioactive isotopes - products of nuclear weapons tests conducted in the atmosphere and underground. The surface layer of the atmosphere is also polluted by emissions of radioactive substances into the atmosphere from operating nuclear power plants during their normal operation and other sources.

Another form of atmospheric pollution is local excess heat input from anthropogenic sources. A sign of thermal (thermal) pollution of the atmosphere is the so-called thermal zones, for example, a “heat island” in cities, warming of water bodies, etc. P.

13. Ecological consequences of global atmospheric pollution.

Greenhouse effect- the rise in temperature on the surface of the planet as a result of thermal energy that appears in the atmosphere due to the heating of gases. The main gases that lead to the greenhouse effect on Earth are water vapor and carbon dioxide.

The phenomenon of the greenhouse effect makes it possible to maintain a temperature on the Earth's surface at which the emergence and development of life is possible. If the greenhouse effect were absent, the average surface temperature of the globe would be much lower than it is now. However, as the concentration of greenhouse gases rises, the atmosphere's impermeability to infrared rays increases, which leads to an increase in the temperature of the Earth.

Ozone layer.

At 20 - 50 kilometers above the Earth's surface, there is a layer of ozone in the atmosphere. Ozone is a special form of oxygen. Most oxygen molecules in the air are made up of two atoms. The ozone molecule is made up of three oxygen atoms. Ozone is formed by the action of sunlight. When photons of ultraviolet light collide with oxygen molecules, an oxygen atom is split off from them, which, joining another O2 molecule, forms Oz (ozone). The ozone layer of the atmosphere is very thin. If all available atmospheric ozone evenly covers an area of 45 square kilometers, then a layer 0.3 centimeters thick will be obtained. A little ozone penetrates with air currents into the lower layers of the atmosphere. When light rays react with substances found in exhaust gases and industrial fumes, ozone is also formed.

Acid rain is a consequence of air pollution. The smoke generated during the combustion of coal, oil and gasoline contains gases - sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. These gases enter the atmosphere, where they dissolve in water droplets, forming weak solutions of acids, which then fall to the ground as rain. Acid rain kills fish and damages forests in North America and Europe. They also spoil crops and even the water we drink.

Plants, animals and buildings are harmed by acid rain. Their impact is especially noticeable near cities and industrial zones. The wind carries clouds with water droplets containing acids over long distances, so acid rain can fall thousands of miles from where it originally originated. For example, most of the acid rain that falls in Canada is caused by smoke from US factories and power plants. The consequences of acid rain are quite understandable, but no one knows exactly how they occur.

14 question The principles outlined for the formation and analysis of various forms of environmental environmental risk for public health are embodied in several interrelated stages: 1. Risk identification for certain types of industrial and agricultural loads with the allocation of chemical and physical factors in their structure according to the level of environmental safety and toxicity. 2. Evaluation of the real and potential impact of toxic substances on humans in certain areas, taking into account the complex of pollutants and natural factors. Particular importance is attached to the existing density of the rural population and the number of urban settlements. 3. Identification of quantitative patterns of the reaction of the human population (of different age cohorts) to a certain level of exposure. 4. Environmental risk is considered as one of the most important components of special modules of the geographic information system. In such modules, problematic medical and environmental situations are formed. GIS blocks include information about existing, planned and expected changes in the structure of territorial and production complexes. An information base of such content is necessary to perform the corresponding modeling. 5. Characteristics of the risk of the combined impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on public health. 6. Identification of spatial combinations of natural and anthropogenic factors, which can contribute to their more detailed forecasting and analysis of the possible dynamics of local and areal combinations of risk at the regional level. 7. Differentiation of territories according to levels and forms of ecological risk and allocation of medical and ecological regions according to regional levels of anthropogenic risk. When assessing the anthropogenic risk, a complex of priority toxicants and other anthropogenic factors is taken into account.

15question SMOG Smog (English smog, from smoke - smoke and fog - fog), severe air pollution in big cities and industrial centers. Smog can be of the following types: Wet London-type smog - a combination of fog with an admixture of smoke and gas waste from production. Ice smog of the Alaskan type - smog formed at low temperatures from the steam of heating systems and domestic gas emissions. Radiative fog - fog that appears as a result of radiative cooling of the earth's surface and a mass of moist surface air to the dew point. Radiation fog usually occurs at night in anticyclone conditions with cloudless weather and a light breeze. Radiation fog often occurs under conditions of temperature inversion, which prevents the rise of the air mass. In industrial areas, an extreme form of radiation fog, smog, can occur. Dry smog of the Los Angeles type - smog resulting from photochemical reactions that occur in gaseous emissions under the influence of solar radiation; persistent bluish haze of corrosive gases without fog. Photochemical smog - smog, the main cause of which is considered to be automobile exhaust. Automotive exhaust gases and pollutant emissions from enterprises under conditions of temperature inversion enter into a chemical reaction with solar radiation, forming ozone. Photochemical smog can cause respiratory damage, vomiting, eye irritation, and general lethargy. In some cases, photochemical smog may contain nitrogen compounds that increase the likelihood of cancer. Photochemical smog DETAILS: Photochemical fog is a multicomponent mixture of gases and aerosol particles of primary and secondary origin. The composition of the main components of smog includes ozone, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, numerous organic peroxide compounds, collectively called photooxidants. Photochemical smog occurs as a result of photochemical reactions under certain conditions: the presence of a high concentration of nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons and other pollutants in the atmosphere, intense solar radiation and calm or very weak air exchange in the surface layer with a powerful and increased inversion for at least a day. Sustained calm weather, usually accompanied by inversions, is necessary to create a high concentration of reactants. Such conditions are created more often in June - September and less often in winter. In prolonged clear weather, solar radiation causes the breakdown of nitrogen dioxide molecules with the formation of nitric oxide and atomic oxygen. Atomic oxygen with molecular oxygen give ozone. It would seem that the latter, oxidizing nitric oxide, should again turn into molecular oxygen, and nitric oxide into dioxide. But that doesn't happen. The nitric oxide reacts with the olefins in the exhaust gases, which then split at the double bond and form fragments of molecules, and an excess of ozone. As a result of the ongoing dissociation, new masses of nitrogen dioxide are split and give additional amounts of ozone. A cyclic reaction occurs, as a result of which ozone gradually accumulates in the atmosphere. This process stops at night. In turn, ozone reacts with olefins. Various peroxides are concentrated in the atmosphere, which in total form oxidants characteristic of photochemical fog. The latter are the source of the so-called free radicals, which are characterized by a special reactivity. Such smog is a frequent phenomenon over London, Paris, Los Angeles, New York and other cities of Europe and America. According to their physiological effects on the human body, they are extremely dangerous for the respiratory and circulatory systems and often cause premature death of urban residents with poor health. Smog is usually observed with weak turbulence (swirling of air currents) of the air, and therefore, with a stable distribution of air temperature along the height, especially during temperature inversions, with light wind or calm. Temperature inversions in the atmosphere, an increase in air temperature with height instead of its usual decrease for the troposphere. Temperature inversions occur both near the earth's surface (surface temperature inversions.), And in the free atmosphere. Surface temperature inversions are most often formed on calm nights (in winter, sometimes during the day) as a result of intense heat radiation from the earth's surface, which leads to cooling of both itself and the adjacent air layer. The thickness of surface temperature inversions is tens to hundreds of meters. The increase in temperature in the inversion layer ranges from tenths of degrees to 15-20 °C and more. The most powerful winter surface temperature inversions are in Eastern Siberia and Antarctica. In the troposphere, above the surface layer, temperature inversions are more likely to form in an anticyclone

16question In the atmospheric air, the concentrations of substances determined by the priority list of harmful impurities established in accordance with the "Temporary recommendations for compiling a priority list of harmful impurities to be controlled in the atmosphere", Leningrad, 1983 were measured. The concentrations of 19 pollutants were measured: the main ones (suspended substances, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide), and specific (formaldehyde, fluorine compounds, benzo (a) pyrene, metals, mercury).

17 question There are 7 large rivers in Kazakhstan, the length of each of which exceeds 1000 km. Among them: the Ural River (its upper course is located on the territory of Russia), which flows into the Caspian Sea; Syr Darya (its upper course is located on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) - to the Aral Sea; The Irtysh (its upper reaches in China; on the territory of Kazakhstan it has large tributaries Tobol and Ishim) crosses the republic, and already on the territory of Russia flows into the Ob, which flows into the Arctic Ocean; the Ili River (its upper reaches are located on the territory of China) flows into Lake Balkhash. There are many large and small lakes in Kazakhstan. The largest among them are the Caspian Sea, the Aral Sea, Balkhash, Alakol, Zaysan, Tengiz. Kazakhstan includes most of the northern and half of the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. The length of the coast of the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan is 2340 km. There are 13 reservoirs in Kazakhstan with a total area of 8816 km² and a total water volume of 87.326 km³. The countries of the world are provided with water resources extremely unevenly. The following countries are the most endowed with water resources: Brazil (8,233 km3), Russia (4,508 km3), USA (3,051 km3), Canada (2,902 km3), Indonesia (2,838 km3), China (2,830 km3), Colombia (2,132 km3), Peru (1,913 km3), India (1,880 km3), Congo (1,283 km3), Venezuela (1,233 km3), Bangladesh (1,211 km3), Burma (1,046 km3).

Of decisive importance for the development of measures to improve the environmental situation in cities is the availability of complete, objective, specific information on this problem. Since 1992, such information has been published in the annual State reports of the Ministry of Natural Resources. Russian Federation"On the state and protection of the natural environment of the Russian Federation", reports of the Department of Nature Management and Environmental Protection of the Government of Moscow "On the state of the environment in Moscow", and other similar documents.

According to these documents, "environmental pollution remains the most acute environmental problem of priority social and economic importance for the Russian Federation."

A constant environmental problem of urban areas is air pollution. Its paramount importance is determined by the fact that air purity is a factor that directly affects the health of the population. The atmosphere has an intense impact on the hydrosphere, soil and vegetation cover, geological environment, buildings, structures and other man-made objects.

Among the anthropogenic sources of pollution of the surface atmosphere, the most dangerous are the combustion various kinds fuel, domestic and industrial waste, nuclear reactions in the production of nuclear energy, metallurgy and hot metal working, various chemical industries, including gas, oil and coal processing. Building objects, transport and motor transport facilities contribute to urban air pollution.

So, for example, in Moscow, according to data for 1997, sources of air pollution were about 31 thousand industrial and construction facilities (including 2.7 thousand motor transport facilities), 13 heat and power plants and their branches, 63 regional and quarterly thermal stations, more than 1 thousand small boiler houses, as well as over 3 million vehicles. As a result, about 1 million tons of pollutants were emitted into the atmosphere every year. At the same time, their total increased every year.

It should also be taken into account that in large cities the negative impact of the general state of the atmosphere is aggravated by the fact that most of the population spends up to 20-23 hours a day indoors, while the level of pollution inside the building exceeds the level of outdoor air pollution by 1.5- 4 times.

The main air pollutants are nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, suspended solids, sulfur dioxide, formaldehyde, phenol, hydrogen sulfide, lead, chromium, nickel, 3,4-benzapyrene.

According to Rosstat data for 2007, more than 30,000 enterprises emit pollutants with exhaust gases from stationary sources into the atmosphere. The amount of pollutants emitted from them - 81.98 million tons; emitted into the atmosphere without purification - 18.11 million tons. Of the emissions received at treatment facilities, captured and neutralized 74.8%.

About 58 million people live in cities with a high level of air pollution, including 100% in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and more than 70% of the population in Kamchatka, Novosibirsk, Orenburg and Omsk regions. In cities, the atmosphere of which contains high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, 51.5 million people live, suspended solids - 23.5, formaldehyde and phenol - more than 20, gasoline and benzene - more than 19 million people. However, since the late 1990s the number of cities with high and very high levels of air pollution is increasing.

Until the early 1990s, industrial enterprises made the main contribution to atmospheric air pollution. During this period, among settlements with the highest level of air pollution included such "factory cities" as Bratsk, Yekaterinburg, Kemerovo, Krasnoyarsk, Lipetsk, Magnitogorsk, Nizhny Tagil, Novokuznetsk, Novosibirsk, Rostov-on-Don, Tolyatti, Norilsk, etc. However, as the decline , and then some lifting and repurposing industrial production, on the one hand, and the accelerated growth of the car park, which is taking place in line with global trends, on the other hand, there have been changes in the list of priority factors affecting the state of the atmosphere in settlements.

First of all, this affected the ecology of large cities. So, in Moscow in 1994-1998. the main trends in the state of the environment were characterized by "... a decrease in the influence of industry on the state of all natural environments. The share of air pollution from industrial facilities has decreased to 2-3% of the total emissions of pollutants. The share of public utilities (energy, water supply, waste incineration, etc.) also decreased sharply and is about 6-8%. The determining factor in the state of the air basin of Moscow at the present time and for the next 15-20 years has become motor transport.

Six years later, in 2004, in Moscow, the intake of pollutants from industrial enterprises increased to 8%, the contribution of thermal power facilities remained almost unchanged - 5%, and the share of road transport increased even more - 87%. (During the same period, the average for Russia was different: emissions from motor vehicles amounted to 43%.) To date, the capital's car park is over 3 million units. The total emission of pollutants into the atmosphere of the city is 1830 tons/year or 120 kg per inhabitant.

In St. Petersburg, the contribution of motor transport to the gross emission of pollutants in 2002 was about 77%. During the period of the 90s, the car park in the city increased 3 times. In 2001, their number was 1.4 million units.

The accelerated growth of motor transport has a sharply negative impact on the state of the environment in cities, which is not limited to air pollution with compounds such as nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, benzapyrene, suspended particles, carbon monoxide, phenol, lead compounds, etc. This factor leads to soil pollution , noise discomfort, inhibition of vegetation near highways, etc.

In Russia, the uncontrolled growth of the motor transport fleet is accompanied by a decrease in the number of environmentally friendly public transport units - trolleybuses and trams. In addition, motorization of the population affects the state of the environment more than in other industrial countries, since it occurs in conditions of lagging environmental performance of domestic vehicles and used motor fuels from the world level, as well as lagging behind in the development and technical condition of the road network. In this regard, the main issue of environmental policy in large cities of Russia is the "greening" of the motor transport complex, which means not only the cars themselves, but also the strategy for the development of public transport, urban planning policy, the strategy for preserving the natural complex, the system of regulatory legal acts, economic mechanisms "displacement" of hydrocarbon fuels (with the exception of natural gas), etc.

The main processes accompanying the spread of atmospheric impurities are diffusion and the physicochemical interaction of impurities with each other and with the components of the atmosphere.

Examples of physical response: condensation of acid vapors in moist air with the formation of an aerosol, reduction in the size of liquid droplets as a result of evaporation in dry warm air. Liquid and solid particles can combine, dissolve gaseous substances.

Some processes of chemical transformations begin immediately from the moment emissions enter the atmosphere, others - when favorable conditions appear for this - the necessary reagents, solar radiation, and other factors.

Hydrocarbons in the atmosphere undergo various transformations (oxidation, polymerization), interacting with other pollutants, primarily under the influence of solar radiation. As a result of these reactions, peroxides, free radicals, compounds with NO x and SO x are formed.

Sulfur compounds enter the atmosphere in the form of SO 2 , SO 3 , H 2 S, CS 2 . In a free atmosphere, SO 2 after some time is oxidized to SO 3 or interacts with other compounds, in particular hydrocarbons, in a free atmosphere during photochemical and catalytic reactions. The end product is an aerosol or solution of sulfuric acid in rainwater.

By technogenic factors we will understand the intensity and volume of the emission of harmful substances; the height of the mouth of the source of emissions from the surface of the earth; the size of the area where pollution occurs; the level of technogenic development of the region.

The natural and climatic factors of the spread of pollutants usually include:

Atmospheric circulation mode, its thermal stability;

Atmospheric pressure, air humidity, temperature conditions;

Temperature inversions, their frequency and duration;

Wind speed, frequency of air stagnation and weak winds (0¸1 m/s);

Duration of fogs;

Terrain relief, geological structure and hydrogeology of the area;

Soil and plant conditions (soil type, water permeability, porosity, soil granulometric composition, vegetation status, rock composition, age, quality class);

Background values of indicators of pollution of natural components of the atmosphere;

The state of the animal world

Let's consider these factors in more detail. In the natural environment, air temperature, speed, strength and direction of the wind are constantly changing. Therefore, the spread of energy and ingredient pollution occurs in constantly changing conditions. The processes of decomposition of toxic substances in high latitudes at low values of solar radiation slow down. Precipitation and high temperatures, on the contrary, contribute to the intensive decomposition of substances. Higher surface temperatures during the day cause the air to rise upwards, resulting in additional turbulence. At night, temperatures near the ground are cooler, so turbulence is reduced. This phenomenon leads to a decrease in exhaust gas dispersion.

The ability of the earth's surface to absorb or radiate heat affects the vertical distribution of temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere and leads to temperature inversion (deviation from adiabaticity). An increase in air temperature with height leads to the fact that harmful emissions cannot rise above a certain “ceiling”. Under inversion conditions, the turbulent exchange weakens, and the conditions for the dispersion of harmful emissions in the surface layer of the atmosphere worsen. For a surface inversion, the repeatability of the heights of the upper boundary is of particular importance, for an elevated inversion, the repeatability of the heights of the lower boundary.

The combination of natural factors that determine the possible level of atmospheric pollution is characterized by the meteorological and climatic potential of atmospheric pollution, as well as the height of the mixing layer, the frequency of surface and elevated inversions, their power, intensity, the frequency of air stagnation, calm layers to different heights.

The decrease in the concentration of harmful substances in the atmosphere occurs not only due to the dilution of emissions by air, but also due to the gradual self-purification of the atmosphere. The phenomenon of self-purification is accompanied by the following main processes

Sedimentation, i.e. deposition of emissions with low reactivity (solid particles, aerosols) under the action of gravity;

Neutralization and binding of gaseous emissions in the open atmosphere under the influence of solar radiation

A certain potential for self-healing of the properties of the environment, including the purification of the atmosphere, is associated with the absorption of up to 50% of natural and man-made CO 2 emissions by water surfaces. Other gaseous air pollutants also dissolve in water bodies. The same happens on the surface of green spaces: 1 hectare of urban green spaces absorbs in an hour the same amount of CO 2 that 200 people exhale.

Chemical elements and compounds contained in the atmosphere absorb some of the compounds of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon. The putrefactive bacteria contained in the soil decompose organic residues, returning CO 2 to the atmosphere.

Environmental pollution is a complex and multifaceted problem. However, the main thing in its modern interpretation is the possible adverse consequences for the health of both present and future generations, because in some cases a person has already violated and continues to violate some important environmental processes on which his existence depends.
Impact of the environment on the health of the urban population
To a large extent, air pollution affects the health of the urban population.
The most active pollutants of the atmosphere of our city
(Dnepropetrovsk) are industrial enterprises. Leaders among them - PD
State District Power Plant (the average amount of harmful substances emitted into the atmosphere annually is about 78,501.4 tons), OAO Nizhnedneprovsky Pipe Rolling Plant
(6503.4 tons), PO YuMZ (938 tons), OJSC DMZ im. Petrovsky (10124.2 tons).
Vehicles make a significant contribution to the picture of the general atmospheric air pollution in the city. It accounts for more than 24% of all emissions of toxic substances.
On the territory of Dnepropetrovsk there are about 1,500 fleets.
There are about 27 thousand units of public transport. About 123,000 cars are in the personal use of citizens.
In a number of districts of the city (Ostrovsky Square, Gazety Pravdy Avenue,
Lenin) there is an excess of the maximum permissible levels of gas contamination for carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (CH).
The highest level of air pollution is observed on Ostrovskogo Square, which is one of the transport interchanges in Dnepropetrovsk. One of the causes of air pollution is the exhaust gases of vehicles.
To reduce the impact of road transport on the ecological state
Dnepropetrovsk Department of City Ecology, carries out work in the following areas: re-equipment of vehicles for compressed natural gas; improving the environmental properties of fuel by modifying it; control and regulation of fuel equipment for exhaust gas toxicity: transfer of vehicles from liquid to gaseous fuels.
Work in these areas has been carried out since 1995. Four decisions of the GEC were adopted (No. 1580 - 95; No. 442 - 96; No. 45 - 97 and No. 380 -98)
The latest decision (No. 380 dated March 19, 1998) combines all areas of the department's activities to reduce the impact of vehicle exhaust gases on air pollution, determines the implementation procedure and priority measures.
The Department of Ecology, following the decision of the city executive committee, monitors compliance with the requirements of environmental legislation on vehicles.
Currently, there are 10 stationary air pollution monitoring posts in the city, seven of which belong to Ukrhydromet and three automated ones - to SEM-City.
In 1998, the total amount of emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere compared to
decreased in 1997. So, for example, Pridneprovskaya GRES, whose pollutant emissions make up 75-80% of emissions from all enterprises in the city, reduced their volume by 7453 tons, OJSC “DMZ named after Petrovsky” - by 940 tons. OJSC "Dneproshina" - by 220 tons, PO "UMZ" - by 72.5 tons.
Several enterprises increased emissions in 1998 compared to 1997, but the increase is insignificant: OAO Nizhnedneprovsky Pipe Rolling Plant - by 15 tons, OAO Dnepropetrovsk Silicate Plant - by 79.2 tons.
Changes in the volumes of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere are associated with changes in production volumes. Measures to reduce emissions into the atmosphere in the reporting year were not carried out due to lack of funds. The total limit of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere from stationary sources in Dnepropetrovsk in 1998 was 128,850 tons. The number of air polluting enterprises in the city is 167, received
“zero” limit - 33.
Average annual concentrations of pollutants in 1998 according to
Dnepropetrovsk exceeded the MPC:

By dust 2 times;

Nitrogen dioxide 2 times;

Nitric oxide by 1.2 times;

Ammonia 1.8 times;

Formaldehyde by 1.3 times.

Emissions of harmful substances into the atmospheric air by regions (thousand tons)
| | Stationary sources | Mobile |
| | Pollution | means |
| |1985 |1990 |1996 |1985 |1990 |1996 |
| Ukraine | 12163.0 | 9439.1 | 4763.8 | 6613, | 6110, | 1578, |
| | | | |9 |3 |5 |
| Autonomous Republic | 593.2 | 315.9 | 61.7 | 362.3 | 335.2 | 60.8 |
|Crimea | | | | | | |
| Vinnitsa | 272.6 | 180.2 | 83.4 | 281.3 | 248.5 | 67.5 |
| Volyn | 37.3 | 33.9 | 15.3 | 142.9 | 134.5 | 38.4 |
| Dnepropetrovsk | 2688.7 | 2170.1 | 831.4 | 273.1 | 358.3 | 66.7 |
| Donetsk | 3205.2 | 2539.2 | 1882.6 | 570.3 | 550.9 | 135.5 |
| Zhytomyr | 79.2 | 84.8 | 23.1 | 205.9 | 192.4 | 52.3 |
| Transcarpathian | 32.0 | 38.2 | 11.6 | 132.9 | 106.3 | 20.4 |
| Zaporozhye | 748.3 | 587.5 | 277.0 | 305.9 | 299.6 | 67.1 |
| Ivano-Frankivsk | 468.2 | 403.3 | 180.4 | 101.1 | 146.2 | 41.7 |
| Kiev | 233.8 | 219.9 | 81.1 | 358.2 | 289.2 | 85.7 |
| Kirovograd | 252.3 | 171.7 | 59.5 | 204.5 | 166.3 | 42.1 |
| Luhansk | 1352.3 | 862.3 | 529.6 | 174.5 | 308.2 | 78.6 |
| Lviv | 378.0 | 271.9 | 106.4 | 320.7 | 295.4 | 74.7 |
| Nikolaev | 154.4 | 98.6 | 27.2 | 222.5 | 201.7 | 41.7 |
| Odessa | 174.8 | 129.0 | 36.6 | 354.2 | 297.1 | 72.2 |
| Poltava | 221.3 | 220.7 | 97.3 | 324.9 | 279.8 | 99.9 |
| Rivne | 117.9 | 63.5 | 20.4 | 161.2 | 141.4 | 35.1 |
| Sumy | 121.5 | 117.8 | 33.7 | 183.5 | 179.6 | 52.7 |
| Ternopil | 41.4 | 71.6 | 16.8 | 183.0 | 148.6 | 37.1 |
| Kharkov | 389.1 | 355.9 | 169.0 | 434.7 | 318.6 | 108.5 |
| Kherson | 120.4 | 74.7 | 25.8 | 236.9 | 189.1 | 47.0 |
| Khmelnitsky | 82.5 | 125.2 | 31.4 | 214.6 | 183.4 | 49.8 |
| Cherkasy | 147.4 | 129.7 | 56.6 | 286.0 | 213.2 | 62.5 |
| Chernivtsi | 29.3 | 25.9 | 7.7 | 121.4 | 107.3 | 20.3 |
| Chernihiv | 109.5 | 81.6 | 32.9 | 186.8 | 174.7 | 55.2 |
| g. Kyiv |99.6 |54.7 |61.5 |231.3|218.3|57.0 |
| g. Sevastopol |12.8 |11.3 |3.8 |39.3 |26.5 |8.0 |

Assessing the health risk of the urban population due to environmental pollution.
The system of medical and environmental regulation is based on the assumption that environmental pollution creates a danger to human health. The reason for this is, firstly, the numerous complaints of the population living in a polluted environment about unpleasant odors, headaches, general poor health and other uncomfortable conditions; secondly, the data of medical statistics, indicating a trend towards an increase in the incidence in the contaminated territories; thirdly, the data of special scientific studies aimed at determining the quantitative characteristics of the relationship between environmental pollution and its effect on the body (see above).
In this regard, the assessment of the risk to human health caused by environmental pollution is currently one of the most important medical and environmental problems. However, there is considerable uncertainty in defining the concept of health risk and establishing the fact of human exposure to pollutants and its quantitative characteristics.
Unfortunately, the current practice of assessing the risk of pollution, based on the comparison of quantitative indicators of the content of impurities (concentration) with regulatory regulations (maximum concentration limit, SHEL, etc.), does not reflect the true picture of the risk of deterioration in health that may be associated with the environment. This is due to the following reason.
The basis for establishing safe levels of exposure to environmental pollutants is the concept of the threshold of harmful effects, postulating that for each agent that causes certain adverse effects in the body, doses exist and can be found.
(concentration) at which changes in body functions will be minimal
(threshold). The threshold of all types of action is the leading principle of domestic hygiene.
In the whole organism, processes of adaptation and restoration of biological structures are carried out, and damage develops only when the rate of destruction processes exceeds the rate of processes of restoration and adaptation.
In reality, the value of the threshold dose depends on the following factors:
- individual sensitivity of the body,
- selection of an indicator for its determination,
- the sensitivity of the methods used.
So, different people react differently to the same stimuli. In addition, the individual sensitivity of each person is also subject to significant fluctuations. Thus, the same levels of environmental pollution often cause a far from unambiguous reaction both in the population as a whole and in the same person. On the other hand, the higher the sensitivity of the methods, the lower the threshold. Theoretically, even a small amount of biologically active substances will react with biosubstrates and, therefore, will be active.

Any environmental factor can become pathogenic, but this requires appropriate conditions. These include: the intensity or power of the factor, the rate of increase of this power, the duration of action, the state of the body, its resistance. The body's resistance, in turn, is a variable: it depends on heredity, age, gender, the physiological state of the body at the time of exposure to an unfavorable factor, previous diseases, etc. Therefore, in the same environmental conditions, one person falls ill, while the other remains healthy, or the same person falls ill in one case and not in the other.
Thus, we can conclude that the study of the incidence of the population helps to determine the risk of adverse effects of environmental pollution, but not to the full extent. Medical and environmental regulation should not only ensure the prevention of the emergence of diseases among the population, but also contribute to the creation of the most comfortable living conditions.

Methodology for health risk assessment

When assessing the health risk, which is determined by the quality of the environment, it is customary to proceed from the following theoretical considerations, which have received recognition from the scientific community:
the biological effect of exposure depends on the intensity of the harmful
(chemical, physical, etc.) factor acting on the human body;
intoxication is one of the phases of adaptation;
The maximum permissible level of environmental pollution is a probabilistic concept that determines an acceptable (permissible) risk and has a preventive orientation and humanistic significance.
The health risk assessment scheme consists of four main blocks:
calculation of potential (projected) risk in accordance with the results of environmental quality assessment;
assessment of morbidity (health) of the population in accordance with the materials of medical statistics, dispensary observations and special studies;
assessment of real health risk using statistical and expert analytical methods;
assessment of individual risk based on the calculation of the accumulated dose and the use of differential diagnostic methods.

ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT AND POTENTIAL RISK CALCULATION
1. Assessment of potentially harmful factors
Assessment of the quality of the environment is impossible without a comprehensive account of all sources that can pollute it. Traditionally, such sources are divided into two main groups:
natural (natural),
anthropogenic (associated with human activities).
The first of these groups manifests its effect during natural disasters, such as volcanic eruption, earthquakes, natural fires. At the same time, into the atmosphere, water bodies, soil, etc. a large amount of suspended solids, sulfur dioxide, etc. is released. In some cases, dangerous pollution can also be created in relatively "calm" situations, for example, when radon and other dangerous natural compounds are released from the bowels
Earth through cracks and breaks in its surface layers.
However, the second group of sources, which creates anthropogenic pollution, is currently the most dangerous. The leading place in this type of pollution belongs to industrial enterprises, thermal power plants and motor transport. These sources, directly polluting the atmosphere, water bodies, soil, create conditions for its secondary pollution, causing the accumulation of impurities in environmental objects.
2. ANALYSIS OF MEDICAL STATISTICS DATA
Medical statistics involves a large amount of work on a national scale related to the formation of information bases on the following indicators.
Demographic indicators (birth rate, mortality, infant mortality, neonatal, postnatal, perinatal mortality, life expectancy).
Birth rates are expressed by demographic coefficients and are calculated in relation to the number of inhabitants living in the administrative territory. The main ones are general and special indicators of fertility. The general indicator gives only an approximate idea of the process of population reproduction, since it is calculated in relation to the size of the entire population, while only women give birth and only at childbearing age. Fertile (fertile) age is considered to be 15-49 years. In this regard, more objectively, the birth rate can be represented by a special indicator calculated specifically for this age.
Mortality statistics indirectly reflect the state of health of the living population, characterizing the risk of death, which depends on many factors.
Mortality rates are determined by calculating mortality rates.
Mortality rates can be divided into general and specific. When calculating them, it is very important to be sure that the number of deaths used to calculate this coefficient takes place in the population for which the calculation is carried out. Such a population group qualifies as a population at risk. The population at risk is the average population in a given area during the period to which the mortality rates refer.
Child mortality refers to the death of children in the first year of life. In the analysis of age-specific mortality, infant mortality is singled out for special analysis due to its special significance as a criterion for the social well-being of the population and as an indicator of the effectiveness of recreational activities. Child mortality accounts for a significant proportion of total mortality and requires careful analysis of its causes. The mortality rate in the first year of life exceeds the mortality rate in subsequent ages, except for the age of extreme old age, and significantly reduces the average life expectancy.
Mortality of children in the first month of life is called neonatal and is divided into early neonatal (in the first week of life) and late neonatal. Mortality of children aged from a month to a year is called postneonatal.
Perinatal mortality is the number of children stillborn and dying in the first 7 days of life (168 hours). In the composition of perinatal mortality, antenatal, intranatal and postnatal mortality are distinguished.
(mortality before childbirth, during childbirth and after birth, respectively).
Life expectancy is determined by compiling life tables. Life tables are a specific way of expressing the death rate in a given population for a given time period. Their main elements are indicators of the probability of death, calculated separately for individual years of life or age groups.
Average life expectancy is the number of years that people of a given age have left to live, and average life expectancy
- this is the number of years that, on average, a given generation of births or peers of a certain age will have to live, assuming that, throughout their life, mortality in each age group will be the same as it was in the year for which the calculation was made.
This procedure for determining the average life expectancy is accepted in international statistical practice and in life insurance. Therefore, for different countries, the indicators of average life expectancy are comparable.

Morbidity: infectious and non-infectious (diseases of various organs and systems), reproductive function of the population, disability.
The morbidity of the population is one of the most important characteristics public health. To evaluate it, coefficients are used that are calculated as the ratio of the number of diseases to the number of population groups in which they are detected over a certain period of time, and recalculated to the standard (100,
1000, 10,000, 100,000 people).
These coefficients reflect the probability (risk) of the occurrence of a particular disease in the studied population group.
The main indicators of the incidence of the population are presented in table. 2.1.
Speaking of morbidity, they usually mean only new cases of diseases (primary morbidity). If it is necessary to get an idea of both new cases of diseases and those already existing, then the indicator of morbidity is calculated. Therefore, the incidence is a dynamic indicator, and

Note, q is the number of newly diagnosed diseases, P is the number of all diseases, N is the average population. soreness - static. Morbidity may differ markedly from that of chronic disease, but the difference is negligible for short-term illness. When identifying causal relationships, the incidence rates are considered the most appropriate. Etiological factors are manifested primarily through the development of the disease, so the more sensitive and dynamic the indicators, the more useful they are in the study of causal relationships. In order to establish the effect of habitat on health, incidence rates must be calculated for specific population groups, so that the presence or absence of causal relationships between the impact of specific environmental factors on the corresponding population group can then be determined.
It should be noted that the completeness and reliability of data on morbidity significantly depend on the method of its study.
Disability is a persistent (long-term) loss or significant disability. Disability, along with morbidity, is classified as a medical indicator of public health. Most often, the cause of disability is a disease that, despite treatment, becomes stable, and the function of one or another organ is not restored.
Physical development: information characterizing the health of children, adolescents and adults.
The physical development of a person is understood as a complex of functional and morphological properties of the body, which ultimately determines the reserve of its physical strength. Physical development is influenced by many factors of an endogenous and exogenous nature, which determines the frequent use of physical development assessments as integral indicators to characterize the state of health. Indicators of physical development, as a rule, are classified as positive signs of health. However, persons with diseases, i.e. carriers of negative signs also have a certain level of physical development. Therefore, it is advisable to qualify physical development not as an independent positive indicator of health, but as a criterion that is interconnected with other indicators that characterize the qualitative side of the population's life.
Especially great importance indicators of physical development are used to assess the health of those groups of the population whose morbidity and disability are relatively insignificant: children over 1 year old, workers of certain professions with strict professional selection. The role of physical development in the field of prevention is also determined by the fact that his condition is largely controlled - by means of regulating nutrition, work and rest, motor mode, refusal to bad habits etc.
To characterize the health of the population, other indicators of the "quality" of life or health of healthy people can be used: mental development, mental and physical performance, etc.
The analysis of medical statistics data involves a number of successive stages.
1. Assumption: detection of diseases that contrast in time or space
The study of the health and morbidity of the population based on medical statistics makes it possible to compare these indicators with temporal and spatial characteristics. In this case, the main purpose of such a comparison can be considered the determination of territories that stand out in contrast in terms of mortality, morbidity, etc. A special place here is occupied by methods of electronic mapping of observation areas, which make it possible to obtain sufficiently visual information. Very characteristic in this regard are the widely used Lately work on the creation of medical and environmental atlases. Particular attention should be paid to the reliability of the monitored information.
So, for example, the materials of medical institutions (HCI) are most widely used to study the morbidity by negotiability. Obtaining reports of health care facilities in the approved forms, as a rule, does not cause great difficulties. These data can and should be used by interested organizations to assess the health of the population. However, it should be borne in mind that the existing system of accounting and reporting of health facilities allows obtaining only approximate estimates of morbidity, as well as temporary disability due to diseases and injuries. The data of health care facilities fairly accurately reflect only the work of these institutions themselves, but not the distribution of morbidity by territory and population groups. This is due to the following circumstances.
1. Accounting and reporting of health facilities are based on the registration of referrals. However, among those who actually fell ill, not everyone seeks medical help, and the proportion of those who apply among the sick depends on various reasons: the severity of the disease, the availability of a specific type of medical care in the near future.
Medical facilities, age and gender of patients, the nature of their work.
2. Along with territorial health facilities, there are departmental and private institutions. It is extremely difficult to determine the proportion of people living in the service area of health care facilities, but receiving medical care in other institutions (medical units of industrial enterprises, polyclinics of the Moscow Region, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, etc.). In addition, there is often double registration of the same disease in different medical institutions.
3. People living in the same territory apply for different diseases to different health facilities: polyclinics, dispensaries, diagnostic centers, trauma centers. In addition, specialized offices
(eg, endocrinology, urology) often serve populations living in multiple polyclinic areas.
4. Children and adults are served, as a rule, in different clinics, women go to antenatal clinics for a number of diseases.
Geographically, the service areas of these three types of health facilities overlap each other, and their boundaries usually do not coincide.
Thus, in the study of morbidity according to referrals to health care facilities, along with the issue of completeness and reliability of registered cases of diseases, the problem of combining data characterizing the incidence of the population (groups of the population) living in a particular territory arises. It should be noted that the smaller the area in which the incidence is studied, the more difficult it is to solve this problem. Thus, relatively complete data can be obtained for the city as a whole; less reliable data for the administrative districts of the city, and when analyzing the incidence in the service areas of medical facilities, and even more so in medical districts, the study of attendance even by statistical cards allows you to get only purely indicative indicators.
The use of data on morbidity based on the results of medical examinations makes it possible to clarify the information received in health facilities, since in this case the opportunity arises:
1) identify diseases in the initial stages;
2) to conduct a fairly complete account of "chronic" diseases;
3) to make the results of examinations independent of the level of sanitary culture of the population, the availability of medical care and other non-medical factors.
Obtaining data on morbidity by registering the causes of death makes it possible to establish those diseases that led to sudden death, but were not detected by the first two methods (poisoning, trauma, heart attacks, strokes, etc.). The value of the method depends on the share in the structure of the incidence of the corresponding forms of pathology. It should be borne in mind that other diseases with a favorable outcome for life do not fall into the field of view of doctors studying morbidity by cause of death.
Obtaining data on morbidity by the interview method (questionnaire-questionnaire method) is of interest as an additional method for identifying complaints from the population and, especially, for obtaining information about environmental and lifestyle factors in order to subsequently study the relationship of these indicators with health. In many countries, this method is used quite widely due to the fact that the private nature of medicine and health care makes it almost impossible to analyze the true incidence of the population according to the data of appeals and medical examinations.
2. Putting forward hypotheses (theoretical substantiation of the possibility of communication with the environment)
If territories are found that contrast with the level of morbidity, physical development, mortality, or other indicators of medical statistics, hypotheses are put forward that this phenomenon is related to the quality of the environment. In this case, data from scientific studies on the features of the biological action of certain impurities are used.
(see above), as well as the results of previous epidemiological studies.
An indicative list of diseases that may be associated with individual factors environment (Table 2).

table 2

As can be seen from the presented table, the same diseases can be caused or provoked by different environmental factors. In this regard, when substantiating hypotheses, special attention should be paid to comparing the incidence rate with the potential risk of exposure to each of the probable factors.
3. Testing (additional samples, special studies)
Testing the hypotheses put forward implies conducting special studies of an "epidemiological" nature. At the same time, it is advisable, if possible, to conduct a number of additional studies aimed at obtaining data on the quantitative content of harmful impurities or their metabolites in the tissues and organs of the victims, as well as conducting a clinical examination with the formulation of specific tests.
Considering that a sufficient number of publications are devoted to the methods of epidemiological studies, we will dwell on the most important points related to risk determination.
The following points are important in the methodology of epidemiological studies: the design of studies, the formation of experimental and control groups, observation using various tests, and the determination of relative risk. The study itself can be retrospective and prospective, longitudinal and transverse, cohort with the formation of experimental and control groups.
A retrospective study involves the analysis of material collected over the past period, and a prospective study is carried out by direct observation. A retrospective study saves time when collecting material, allows you to quite clearly define the already established observation group, find out the conditions that influenced the occurrence of a particular phenomenon. However, a retrospective study has a limited program, since it allows taking into account only the features that are available in the materials and documents used for the study.
A prospective study can have a program with any set of features and their combinations. In addition, there is the possibility of monitoring the change in signs under the influence of various factors, the possibility of long-term monitoring of a population group.
A cross-sectional study characterizes a population at a point in time. At the same time, an examination of the entire population or individual contingents is carried out at the same time, clinical, physiological, psychological and other characteristics of the examined are determined with the identification of patients or persons with deviations in health.
Longitudinal research involves observing the dynamics of the same population. In this case, it is possible to conduct dynamic observations of each representative of such a population and apply individualizing evaluation methods.
The cohort method involves the allocation of experimental and control groups, and the statistical population here is made up of relatively homogeneous units of observation. The main difference between the experimental and control groups is the presence and absence of harmful factors.

4. Systematization (formation of databases and tabular materials)
One of the important results of the analysis of medical statistics and the application of the epidemiological research method is the determination of relative and immediate risk. Relative risk (RR) is the ratio of incidence rates in a group of persons exposed to the studied factor to the same indicators in persons not affected by this factor (usually takes values from 1 to ).
Immediate risk (HR) is the difference in incidence rates in individuals exposed and not exposed to the factor (it can take "values" from 0 to 1). The statistical nature of the signs of risk determines the inevitability of the so-called errors of the first kind (non-inclusion in the risk group of persons susceptible to the disease) and errors of the second kind
(inclusion in the risk group not susceptible to the disease).
Thus, the main goal of studying the state of health or morbidity of the population in the risk assessment system is the calculation of attributable risk in population groups that are in significantly different environmental conditions. It is this indicator that is most appropriate to consider the purpose of this block of studies, and it is this indicator that should be compared with the risk values obtained in accordance with the methodology described in paragraph 2.1. Databases and tabular materials resulting from the processing of medical statistics should contain information on the levels of morbidity, mortality and other indicators characterizing the state of health of the population in the observation areas:
number of reported cases;
relative indicators (per 100, 1000, 10000 or 100,000);
relative risk values in comparison with indicators for the territory selected for control or comparison;
attributable risk values.

Analysis (determination of links in the "environment-health" system)
Obviously, the potential risk, determined in accordance with the level of atmospheric air pollution and the intensity of the impact of a number of other factors (noise, drinking water pollution, etc.), makes it possible to assess the likelihood of an adverse effect associated with these pollution.
In other words, the potential risk determines the maximum size of the risk group (in percentages or fractions of a unit), i.e. the number of people who can potentially experience adverse effects associated with a given environmental factor. At the same time, as shown above, the population that may show signs of the disease is only part of the risk group. An even smaller proportion are people whose exposure to polluted air can lead to death. In this regard, special attention should be paid to determining the real risk, i.e. the likelihood of an increase in morbidity, mortality and other medical and statistical indicators. For its calculation, a special block of analysis is intended in common system risk definitions.
.1. Definition of formal statistical relationships
Statistical methods for determining the relationship between the quality of the environment and indicators of public health in the scientific and specialized literature are given quite a lot of attention. The variety of possible options does not allow us to offer a sufficiently unambiguous and rigid scheme for such studies. However, according to the authors, it is most expedient to use the following approaches here.
Calculation of the adverse effect (morbidity, mortality, etc.) in the risk group.

This approach is based on the calculation of the determination coefficient (R), which is numerically equal to the square of the correlation coefficient between the potential risk (environment block) and attributive risk (medical statistics block). It is generally accepted that the coefficient of determination in this case shows the share of the contribution of the environment to the formation of the pathology under study in the observation area. When using this approach, it should be noted that a significant value of R usually occurs when the environment is one of the leading factors causing or provoking the observed pathology, and multiplying R by a mortality rate, morbidity, or other relative indicator, you can get the number of deaths, diseases and etc. caused by environmental pollution.
Factor analysis - calculation of the contribution of various factors, including environmental ones, to the occurrence of adverse effects on public health when they are simultaneously exposed.
Unlike the previous method, in this case it is possible to assess the contribution of the environmental factor to the formation of public health in the general context of the influence of other factors, if they are also measured. Based on the resulting factor matrix, it is possible to build a mathematical model of the level of adverse effects under the influence of the entire set of factors taken into account, which can be used in making managerial decisions, developing an economic strategy, predicting morbidity, mortality, etc. Factor analysis could be preferable in general set of methods of statistical analysis as giving the most accurate results, however, it cannot always be applied. This is due to the fact that in this case, on the one hand, a sufficiently large amount of reliable initial information is required, and on the other hand, an attempt to "simply" complicate the mathematical model leads to what is called a "combinatorial explosion" - a massive increase in computational complexity as the dimension of the desired relationships increases. In addition, there is the problem of method error growth, when the probable error can become commensurate with the expected result.
If we assume that the real risk should be a value that characterizes the real number of additional cases of diseases caused by environmental pollution, then from the entire arsenal of available statistical methods, the following are most appropriate.
Simplified approach.
1. The correlation coefficient (r) between the potential risk and the level of relative morbidity is determined. In the case of its reliability and compliance with common sense, the linear regression equation is calculated:

Incidence = a + b Risk, where Risk is the potential risk.
As a result, the following is estimated: a - the background level of morbidity, i.e. one that does not depend on environmental pollution; b is the coefficient of the proportion of the increase in incidence depending on the level of potential risk; for each territory, the number of additional cases of diseases (per 1000 or others) is determined by multiplying b by
Risk further, the results can be summarized in tables and mapped in order to zoning the observation area according to the degree of medical and environmental risk.
An approach based on the use of standardized medical and statistical data on the levels of morbidity in the population.
The difference between this approach and the previous one is that in this case standardized medical and statistical information about the incidence rate is used. The standardized indicator is the average regional level of a particular pathology (or class), which is determined by special studies based on long-term medical and statistical observation. Sometimes, in the absence of approved (or accepted as such) standardized data, mean territorial levels are used instead. For example, when comparing the incidence in city districts, its average city value is chosen as standardized data, in the service areas of a polyclinic or TMO - the average regional value, etc. In this case, the following algorithm for calculating the real risk is proposed.
1. Tables of standardized indicators are filled in. In the absence of the latter, the average territorial indicators are determined: all cases of a particular disease (or class) in all territories for the entire population age group, expressed per 1000, 100,000 or 1000,000, with the definition of error (m) and variance (st).
2. From the list of diseases, the researcher selects the forms or groups (classes) of interest to him.
3. For a period of time determined by the researcher (preferably for comparison with the potential risk of immediate action - the shortest possible period, for others - the longest)
(per 1000, etc.) the incidence rate for each pathology and / or class for all (or selected by the researcher in this calculation) territories.
4. The standardized (or average territorial) level is subtracted from the incidence rate for each selected territory, and the resulting difference is expressed in the values of art. The probability of deviation of the incidence from the average regional value is determined using the distribution
Student:

| o | Probability |
|0,50 |0,383 |
|1.00 |0,682 |
|1.50 |0,866 |
|1.96 |0,950 |
|2.00 |0,954 |

5. The correlation coefficient (r) between the potential risk and the probability of deviation of the incidence rate from the non-district (or standardized) average is determined. In the case of its reliability and compliance with common sense, the linear regression equation is calculated:
Deviation probability = a + b Risk.
2. Evaluation of reliability (elimination of bias)
Under the assessment of the reliability of the obtained statistical patterns, in addition to statistical reliability, one should, first of all, understand the cutting off of everything that does not correspond to common sense. In other words, simple statistical relationships that do not agree with a reasonable biological explanation should be rejected. This is often referred to as the exclusion of bias. There are several types (levels) of bias. Let's name some of them.
Researcher personality. The specific tasks he solves can affect both the choice of initial information and the identification and interpretation of the resulting relationships.
Availability of source information. The size of the sample that served as the basis for the conclusions can be significantly affected by the cost and amount of work required to obtain initial information, the unwillingness of individuals and organizations to take part in the study (for example, when interviewing cancer and other seriously ill patients), etc. This may lead to the fact that, due to organizational errors, the statistical population will not fully characterize the entire population to which the conclusions are transferred.
Impact of migration. Migration leads to a change in real dose loads associated with the impact of the factor under study.
Other types. Associated with the specific conditions of the study.
There are various methods to eliminate bias, the main of which are the following:
randomization,
systematization,
stratification,
clustering,
multi-stage sampling, etc.
Assessing the validity of findings is the most complex and important part of health risk assessment studies. To a large extent, the quality of the conclusions of this stage depends on the qualifications of experts and their ability to use modern knowledge on the issue under discussion.
3. Conclusions about the presence of links in the "environment-health" system
Conclusions about the presence of links in the "environment-health" system are usually formulated on the generally accepted principles of medical and environmental research. There are the following criteria to judge the real health risk associated with environmental pollution:
1) the coincidence of the observed effects in the population with experimental data;
2) consistency of observed effects in different population groups;
3) the plausibility of associations (simple statistical relationships that do not agree with a reasonable biological explanation are rejected);
4) a close correlation exceeding the significance of the detected differences with a probability of more than 0.99;
5) the presence of gradients of the relationship "dose-effect", "time-effect";
6) an increase in non-specific morbidity among the population with an increased risk (smokers, the elderly, children, etc.);
7) polymorphism of lesions under the action of chemicals;
8) the uniformity of the clinical picture in the victims;
9) confirmation of contact by detecting a substance in biological media or by specific allergological tests;
10) a tendency to normalize indicators after the improvement of the situation or the elimination of contact with harmful substances or factors.
The detection of more than five of the listed signs makes the connection of the detected changes with environmental conditions quite probable, and seven signs - proven.
4. Definition of individual risk
The definition of individual risk is a special form of medical and environmental expertise, the purpose of which is to diagnose cases of environmentally caused diseases. Unfortunately, the legal framework has not yet been developed. state system diagnosing these diseases, as there is no approved definition of "environmentally caused disease". So far, the main functions of establishing signs of diseases of ecological etiology are assigned to medical and preventive institutions located on the administrative territory of the city, regardless of the form of ownership and departmental affiliation. Identification of signs of diseases is carried out during the period when the population seeks medical help and during medical examinations. In this case, the following stages of diagnostics are distinguished.
4.1. Determination of the internal dose
To assess individual risk, it is important to determine the internal dose of a chemical, which depends on the specific features of human contact with the environment. The most accurate method for calculating the internal dose is its bioindication, i.e., laboratory quantitative determination of environmental pollutants or their metabolites in human tissues and organs. Comparison of laboratory results with existing standards makes it possible to determine the real internal dose of the environmental load. However, for most of the most common chemical pollutants, bioindication is either impossible or difficult. Therefore, another way to determine the internal dose is to calculate. One of the options for such a calculation is the use of information on the concentrations of chemicals in various zones of human stay and the average time of his stay in these zones. So, for example, after conducting a survey, you can determine the average time a person stays inside a home, in a residential area, a suburban area, transport, in a working area. Knowing the concentration of the substance, the volume of inhaled air, the time spent in different zones, the expert can calculate the internal dose received per year, which in this case is called the aerogenic load. Summing up the aerogenic load by individual substances, it is possible to calculate the total individual aerogenic load.
Different substances have different toxicity, and therefore, for a more accurate risk assessment, it is advisable to use not just the aerogenic load in milligrams of the substance, but the magnitude of the potential risk.
4.2. Determination of biological effects (calculation of biodose)
The biodose most often means the accumulated (cumulated) amount of adverse effects caused by exposure to an ecotoxicant. In the traditional interpretation, cumulation means the summation of the action of repeated doses of environmental pollutants, when the next dose enters the body before the effect of the previous one ends. Depending on whether the substance itself accumulates in the body, the following types of cumulation are distinguished.
material accumulation. Not in itself the accumulation of a substance, but the participation of an ever-increasing amount of an ecotoxicant in the development of a toxic process.
functional cumulation. The final effect does not depend on the gradual accumulation of small amounts of poison, but on its repeated action on known cells of the body. The action of small amounts of poison on cells is summed up, as a result of which an accumulated effect (biodose) is created.
mixed cumulation. With such cumulation, both those and other effects take place. It is possible that a pollutant is completely eliminated from the body, but a part of its molecule or metabolite is bound to the receptor.
There are several options for the mathematical calculation of biodose. Without going into their detailed description, we note that they are all based on the use of the following main indicators
maximum and/or average influencing concentration;
duration of a single contact;
the proportion of the substance retained in the body during respiration;
cumulative features of impurities;
number of contacts with an impurity (mode of exposure);
total duration of exposure;
body mass.
4.3. Assessment of adverse effects (diagnosis)
The etiology and pathogenesis of environmentally conditioned conditions (discomfort, disease, death) require the use of both traditional and special diagnostic methods. The basis for suspicion of the ecological etiology of the disease are the following signs:
identification in the clinical picture of characteristic symptoms that are not found in other nosological forms and are not related to the professional activity of the subject;
the group nature of non-communicable diseases in the area of residence among persons not related by a common profession or place of work;
the presence of harmful or dangerous environmental factors in the area of residence of the subject.
It is also necessary to take into account the possibility of developing a disease of ecological etiology after cessation of contact with a harmful factor. Diagnostic criteria for a disease of ecological etiology are:
sanitary and hygienic characteristics of the area of residence;
duration of residence in the area;
professional history;
general history;
accounting for non-specific clinical signs that occur in other nosological forms, but pathogomonic for this particular disease;
study of the dynamics of the pathological process, taking into account both various complications and long-term consequences, and the reversibility of pathological phenomena, which is revealed after the termination of contact with the active agent.
Diagnosis of environmentally conditioned conditions, as a rule, is based on their retrospective analysis with the search for appropriate cause-and-effect relationships and the construction of probabilistic diagnostic models on their basis. At the same time, one of the important areas of research in this area should be considered the determination of factors or their combinations that cause, provoke, promote or accompany the occurrence of these conditions, which is further used for the purposes of their prediction and prevention.
Such studies involve obtaining and analyzing sufficiently voluminous and heterogeneous information. At the same time, modern medical and environmental data are characterized by rather complex relationships, as a result of which generally accepted traditional methods statistical analysis often turn out to be insufficiently correct, since they rely on significantly simplified models of quantities and relationships between them (for example, relationships are assumed to be linear, correlations to be quadratic, etc.). In real problems, as a rule, relationships are much more multidimensional, when the significance of a feature depends decisively on the context and the use of traditional methods for processing values becomes unacceptable. When performing medical and environmental studies in order to develop diagnostic rules for identifying environmentally caused diseases, it is advisable to use combined approaches based on the use of combinations of various methods.
An example of such an approach is the use of a combination of methods of mathematical logic and statistics. The initial data, on the basis of which it is supposed to develop a system of rules for diagnosing environmentally caused diseases, should contain information that relates to the conditions for the occurrence of various diseases (not only those discussed) and which would be described by logical signs. When analyzing such data, it is useful to ask three main questions.
1. What combinations of signs are typical for a group of cases in which certain diseases occurred? We will consider as characteristic those combinations that are quite often found in the group of cases describing this disease, and are never (or rarely) found in the rest. The number of features in a characteristic combination is not limited. Note that each individual feature from their characteristic combination may not be specific in the traditional sense (i.e., it may occur equally often in the compared groups). A feature acquires significance when it participates in a characteristic combination, i.e., in the context of other features included in the characteristic combination.
2. Do the characteristic combinations found make it possible to reliably identify the entire group of cases of a particular disease, to distinguish it from the rest?
3. Does the characteristic combination include features that are characterized as environmental factors?
The described approach makes it possible to obtain answers to all three questions, and if the answers to the second and third questions are positive, it becomes possible to build a statistically reliable system of logical rules for diagnosing environmentally caused diseases.
Searching for feature combinations only makes sense for boolean data types, and this method works exclusively with this type of data. Therefore, before analyzing the data using this method, it is necessary to transform them into a logical form. The term "combination" means a conjunction of logical features that takes a positive value if all the features included in the conjunction also take this value. In other words, the combination of signs in the description of a case is obvious only when all the signs included in its composition are found in it.
The method assumes the implementation of the following condition: in the process of searching for combinations, a negative value is regarded not as a negation of a feature, but as a lack of information about it and is not taken into account in any way; signs with a negative value cannot be included in characteristic combinations.
This allows you to work with incomplete data, under conditions of significant information uncertainty, and helps to avoid the appearance of meaningless combinations when the absence of a feature is not informative and does not indicate anything. If the negative value of some feature is still informative for solving the problem, then it is sufficient to explicitly define an additional feature that will take a positive value if and only if the original feature takes a negative value.
If we assume that reliability is an estimate of the assumption that the frequency of occurrence of a random event in the sample is equal to its probability, then reliability is determined by the number of cases in the sample and increases as the sample size increases. At the same time, the reliability of several events
(uniform estimate) is determined by the ratio between the number of events and the sample size. The difference of this approach from many other methods is that the reliability of the results does not depend on the dimension of the original feature space. It depends only on the number of characteristic combinations necessary to solve the problem: the fewer, the better.
The search for characteristic combinations involves enumeration of a sufficiently large volume of combinations of features, which can be most successfully performed using computer technology. For this purpose, you can use both general application packages (spreadsheet processors) and specialized packages (for example, Rule Maker).
4.4. Conclusions on effects and individual "health risk"
The final decision related to the diagnosis of an environmentally determined condition is usually made by a group of experts. When a person is identified with signs of a disease of ecological etiology, the medical institution sends a notice in the prescribed form to the center of state sanitary and epidemiological supervision at the place of residence of the patient. All persons with identified diseases, as well as persons who have not pronounced deviations from the organs and systems, in the etiology of which the environmental factor plays the main role, should be under dispensary observation by the relevant specialists (therapist, neuropathologist, dermatovenereologist, etc.) .
The right to establish a disability group for a disease of this etiology and determine the percentage of disability is granted to medical and labor expert commissions. The expert opinion is the basis for the victim to file a claim for compensation for damage caused by the environmental situation.

ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT
1. THE PRICE OF HEALTH RISKS
In order for health risk assessment to become a management factor, it must be characterized by economic categories (price, profitability, efficiency, etc.).
Understanding how difficult it is to argue the price of health, we offer a simplified scheme for its determination, based on the existing economic mechanisms of health care in our country.
Calculations made according to the methods presented in this publication allow us to determine the number of people who are at high risk of negative consequences. To do this, we need to know the impact area, the number of people living in it, and the Risk indicator. The necessary information can be obtained from: a) the system of social and hygienic monitoring, b) the consolidated volumes of MPE (VSS), c) the inventory bureaus of the executive branch, d) statistical objects.

However, with all the shortcomings of the proposed economic calculations, it is difficult to overestimate the value of the risk cost indicator itself - the most effective tool in the risk management system. Some examples will be given below.
2. Risk management
Preventive sanitary supervision
According to existing rules, the design materials in the EIA section should contain information about the forecast of the impact on the health of the population of the facility planned for construction or reconstruction. The health risk assessment system we propose will fully suit both the designer, the customer and the expert. There are two options for calculating the risk: a) the conditions of the existing situation, b) after the object (project) is put into operation.
The source material for predictive calculations is taken from the project itself. In principle, it is not the risk that is assessed here, but its dynamics during the implementation of the project, which is much more important in order to make a full-fledged conclusion.
If we continue economic calculations, determine the price of risk (the price of risk dynamics) and include the resulting value in the expenditure part of the business plan
(estimate), then with a large amount of risk caused by the object, the latter may turn out to be economically inexpedient (unprofitable). In this case, the "health" factor will work as an economic mechanism and will determine the final decision on the project without administrative coercion.
Current sanitary supervision
It would be appropriate to use a health risk assessment system to introduce a differentiated tax on land and real estate. It is obvious that the risk to the health of the population living in an unfavorable environmental situation is higher than in conditions of minimal exposure to environmental factors.
Justified in this way, different tax rates on land and, consequently, on real estate, make it possible, on the one hand, to compensate for the damage caused to the health of the population by reducing the tax in ecologically unfavorable microdistricts, and on the other hand, to compensate the administration for restraint in the development of industry and transport in neighborhoods with favorable environmental conditions. In any case, there is always a social order for the sanitary service to conduct social and hygienic monitoring, calculation and assessment of the risk to public health, which ultimately determines the strategy and tactics of the sanitary service.

Measures for the sanitary protection of atmospheric air in populated areas

The problem of protecting the atmosphere from harmful emissions is complex and complex. There are three main groups of activities:

Technological;

planning;

From an economic point of view, it is cheaper to deal with harmful substances in the places of their formation - the creation of closed technological cycles, in which there would be no tail gases or off-gases. Application of the environmental principle of rational use of natural resources - the maximum extraction of all useful components and waste disposal
(maximum economic effect and minimum waste polluting the environment).
This group also includes:
1) replacement of harmful substances at work with less harmful or harmless ones;
2) purification of raw materials from harmful impurities (desulfurization of fuel oil before its combustion);
3) replacement of dry methods of processing dusty materials with wet ones;
4) replacement of flame heating with electric (shaft furnaces with electric induction);
5) sealing processes, the use of hydro- and pneumatic transport in the transportation of dusty materials;
6) replacement of intermittent processes by continuous ones.
2. Planning activities

The group of planning activities includes a set of techniques, including:

Zoning of the territory of the city,

The fight against natural dust,

Organization of sanitary protection zones (clarification on the wind rose, landscaping of the zone)

Planning of residential areas (zoning of building blocks),

Landscaping of populated areas.
3. Sanitary measures

Special protection measures with the help of treatment facilities:

Dry mechanical dust collectors (cyclones, multicyclones),

Filtration devices (fabrics, ceramic, metal-ceramic, etc.),

Electrostatic cleaning (electrostatic precipitators),

Wet cleaning devices (scrubbers),

Chemical: catalytic gas purification, ozonation.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Baryshnikov I. I., Musiychuk Yu. I. Human health is a system-forming factor in the development of environmental problems in modern cities. - Sat:

Medical-geographical aspects of assessing the level of public health and the state of the environment. - St. Petersburg, 1992, p. 11-36.

2. Vikhert A. M., Zhdanov V. S., Chaklin A. V. et al. Epidemiology of non-infectious diseases. - M.: Medicine, 1990. - 272 p.

3. Temporary guidelines for substantiation of maximum permissible concentrations (MPC) of pollutants in the atmospheric air of populated areas. No. 4681-88 dated July 15, 1988

4. Krutko VN Approaches to the "General Theory of Health". - Human Physiology, 1994, No. 6, v. 20, p. 34-41.

5. Osipov G. L., Prutkov B. G., Shishkin I. A., Karagodina I. L.

6. Pinigin M. A. Hygienic bases for assessing the degree of atmospheric air pollution. - Hygiene and sanitation, 1993, No. 7.

7. Toxicometry of chemicals polluting the environment / Ed. A. A. Kasparov and I. V. Sanotsky. - M., 1986. - 428 p.

8. Risk management in socio-economic systems: the concept and methods of its implementation. Part 1. Publication of the Joint Committee on Risk Management. - In the book: Problems of safety in emergency situations. Review information, issue 11. M.. VINITI 1995, S. 3-36.

9. Yanichkin L. P., Koroleva N. V., Pak V. V. On the application of the atmospheric pollution index. - Hygiene and sanitation 1991, No. 11, p. 93-95. "

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