To know the future, you need to know the past. Does historical science help predict the future? Facts that amaze

Past, present and future There is a basic rule that the psychotic is concerned about the past, the neurotic can only be in the present, and the sane person is concerned about the future. This classification can be made even more concrete if one realizes that the neurotic

Yulia Ershova

Scientific minds have developed an information theory that proves that predicting the future is an innate ability of the human brain, which humanity, unfortunately, has lost.

Parapsychologists, supporters of this theory, conducted numerous experiments in the field of consciousness and subconsciousness, and also studied religious, philosophical and historical works in detail. different peoples: Bible, Koran, Vedas, Torah.

So, for example, parapsychologists believe that some provisions of the information theory are contained in the teachings of Zarathushtra, the founder of the religion of Zoroastrianism and a prophet who received information from the future.

Zarathushtra created a religion of worship of the Good Thought, considering the Supreme God Ahura Mazda the Lord of Thought. In his teaching, he explains how to work with internal information.

Briefly, the essence of modern information theory is explained as follows. The human brain is a matrix that is filled with various information codes. A person lives in a three-dimensional time stream and constantly receives and emits information.

The information it emits goes back to the past, the information it receives comes from the future.

Information itself is nothing but a connection between the mental and physical body of a person, and a person is its source and recipient.

Thus, since a person lives in a three-dimensional time stream, he is simultaneously in the past and in the future.

He himself sends information signals from the future to the past, and vice versa.

A person can constantly model his future by changing his past, and he always has several different options for his future.

Paradoxically, the main idea of ​​information theory was accidentally revealed in the film "The Butterfly Effect" even before this theory was heard in scientific circles and received recognition.

Studies have shown that in order to predict the future, a person needs to experience a surge of intellectual or emotional activity: the information flow from the future is manifested in creativity.

It is not surprising that it was writers and poets, artists and directors who often turned out to be prophets, accurately describing future inventions and disasters in their works.

Scientists explain it this way: objects of art, culture, literature help to establish a connection with the future, because they are addressed to descendants, and the thoughts of descendants - to works of art.

Spiritual communication arises between creators and viewers. People exchange thoughts.

For example, a writer writes his thoughts on paper. Descendants read them and reflect on the creation of the writer. The wind of time rips off their thoughts like old leaves and carries them to the past, where some of them end up with the writer. Hence the mysterious predictions.

But, of course, the descendants do not turn their thoughts to everyone, but to the thinkers who left their mark on history.

Scientists argue that at the present stage of development, a person may try to regain his lost ability.

With the help of special training, he can improve the "audibility" of the future, but for this you need to learn how to form an information flow.

There are different ways to do this: concentration, hypnosis, meditation, yoga. A long and painstaking comprehension of the images transmitted to the past is necessary. The event information must be accompanied by a specific emotional mood, and for each person this mood is individual.

Recent research proves that foresight and telepathy are more characteristic of children than adults.

At birth, the human brain develops, not only obeying the laws of biological heredity, but also perceiving information from the future related to the upcoming activities of a person and his fate. The brain of the child, as it can, prepares for the upcoming tests.

The diary of a Moscow schoolboy Leva Fedorov, written shortly before the start of the Great Patriotic War, not only contains a fairly accurate date for the start of the war, but reveals the main meaning and content of the Barbarossa conquest plan.

The presentation gives a brilliant detailed forecast of the future, shows the inferiority and futility of this plan, the inevitability of the collapse of German military aspirations.

The brain of children brighter perceives information from the future, as a result of this, children can get sick.

Few modern people can use telepathic abilities, but animals constantly use them in their lives.

In the book "Animal Training" V. Durov spoke about the impact of mental commands on the behavior of animals. Through the wall, without seeing or hearing the man, the dog carried out his mental orders. And sometimes the whole program.

Telepathy is one of the most effective methods of animal training.

To better understand the nature of predictions, telepathy and prophetic dreams, scientists in Russia, Europe and America are conducting thousands of studies and experiments to study the largest predictions of the past.

There are many cases when the prophets predicted death or catastrophes, here are examples of several vivid prophecies of history:
Boris Godunov called fortune-tellers to him, and they predicted that he would reign for seven years.
The prophets predicted the inevitable death of Ivan the Terrible, but he got angry and ordered them to be silent, threatening to burn them all at the stake. The day before the predicted death, he ordered their execution, but did not see the execution, as he died suddenly.
Basil the Blessed at the feast of Ivan the Terrible three times poured out the table bowl brought to him. When the tsar became angry with him, Vasily replied: "Do not boil, Ivanushka, it was necessary to put out the fire in Novgorod, and it is flooded." Later it turned out that indeed, at that very time there was a dangerous fire in Novgorod.
A fortune-teller predicted to A. Pushkin that he would die because of a beautiful woman.
American President Abraham Lincoln repeatedly had dreams and visions (the last time on the eve of the assassination attempt), which predicted his death at the hands of a hired killer.

Philosophers and religious figures believe that prophetic foresight is initiated by Divine will. This is a wonderful revelation from God.

But the opinion of scientists on this matter is the opposite: “a miracle signals the imperfection of this world and its incompleteness, in this state of affairs, God must constantly complete it, interfering in the course of events. This is not linked with ideas about the harmony of the world.

In other words: man is his own prophet.

At present, parapsychological scientists are working on the creation of a method of prophetic foresight, thanks to which it is possible to restore the lost ability.

In the 21st century, people's faith in miracles and predictions is stronger than ever. Like mushrooms, after rain, parapsychological centers and academies, schools of magic and the occult have bred.

Charlatans offer to "foresee the future" by mail and telephone, but this is absolutely impossible with superficial communication. They just use people's trust and belief in magic for their own selfish purposes, earning a lot of money on this.

You should not turn to gypsies and fortune-tellers for predictions, because each person is able to "edit" his life from the height of his years and the experience gained, to help himself find ways out of difficult situations support yourself in difficult times.

The main thing to remember is that a person's consciousness is somewhat similar to the Internet, so you should protect yourself with an anti-virus program with a firm "Do no harm" attitude against all sorts of pseudo healers and false prophets.

The original post is on the website.

30.06.2015 22:52

The past is not equal to the future is a favorite saying of Tony Robbins.

Unfortunately, he is wrong.

I can understand Tony's intent when he said that. This was a sales pitch, but in general he means that people have the power to end the past and create a new future. In general, this is a positive statement and many try to follow it. But in fact, it does more harm than good. It makes people reckless about the changes they never make in their lives. The hidden idea that we can just run away from our past makes people waste a lot of time.

I know how appealing the idea is that we can somehow break with our past and create a fulfilling future for ourselves, but how often do people actually create it this way? How often have you been able to do this?

So what is the truth?

The truth is that past actions and the picture of your life is actually the best measure of your future life, and this applies not only to life. specific people, but also the lives of teams, companies, technologies, political organizations and other institutions of life. Even when we are talking about personal growth and conscious life, about all intentions and purposes, the past always corresponds to the future.

Looking into the past

If you want to know where the current road will take you, look at your past. This is the best way to predict where you are going.

Looking at your past is a more reliable way than looking at your goals and intentions.

If I want to know where a person is going in life, the first thing I do is look at their past, especially the recent past, and make predictions based on it. I don't even need to hear about the goals and intentions of this person - enough information about the past. (Below in the article I will explain why I say this). Just let me see what he's been up to for the past few months, and that'll give me a pretty clear idea of ​​where and who he'll be in a year or so.

Obviously, there is a degree of randomness in life. These are random events that we cannot really predict. Sometimes something unexpected happens, and then it turns our life in a completely new direction.

But most of the time, our lives fall prey to certain behavioral patterns, especially in the long run. We may not be able to accurately predict what will happen tomorrow or next week, and aside from the unexpected, yet regular, chaotic changes in life in an unpredictable world, our lives are even more predictable than we can imagine.

Eat a little more than you can digest in a day, so what? In a year you will be much fatter than now. The result is quite predictable, given your past actions.

Is your future so difficult to predict, at least in general terms?

If you go to college and specialize in a field that is not marketed, it is easy to see that you will struggle to find a paid job after graduation. And isn't it true that if you find a job, it will not be in your specialty at all?

If you're stuck in a relationship that you rate neither a 9 nor a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10, isn't it predictable that dissatisfaction, resentment, and apathy will only grow over time? And your feelings will be far from love and gratitude.

If you eat unhealthy food and are in constant stress Is it difficult to predict what your life will be like in the future?

Looking at people

Let's look at the people in your life that you know well.

Can you predict with a certain degree of probability what will happen to them in a year? Try to make a decent guess where they will be in career, finance, health, daily habits, spiritual practices, etc.?

I am by no means demanding precise predictions from you. Just paint in broad strokes a picture of the life of your friends and acquaintances in a year. Let's start with someone you know, but not your partner, girlfriend, husband or wife. (Do not choose those in whose future you are personally interested).

What will this person's career or job be like in a year? Working or successful manager? Work with a living wage or high-speed career ladder? How does this person feel about work? How hard does he work? How many hours does he spend on work per week and how many per year?

What is the real profit of your friend per year? Try to guess. Does he only save $50 a year? Or 500? Or maybe a million? How much money does he have at home? What kind of property does he have?

What is his relationship like now? Is he married? Does he have a "half"? Do they live together? Or is he alone and looking for someone?

If this person is constantly changing relationships, don't worry about predicting what relationship they'll be in by the end of the year - it's like flipping a coin. Just try to determine what direction in the relationship he takes during the year. How many new partners will he have this year and which ones will he choose?

How will he feel about health next year? What will he eat? What sport will he play, if any? Will he gain weight, lose it, or neither? Will he be on a diet or even starve? What will be his daily habits? When will he wake up? And when do you go to bed?

Is he lazy? Or unusually productive? How energetic or passive is he in his affairs? What spiritual practices will he do in a year? Will he go to church regularly? How often will he meditate? Or maybe he will light candles around the bathroom and for him it will become a mini-chapel?

In this way, you can get a whole picture of what your friend's life will be like in a year and how much this person will advance in personal growth.

The origins of our "predictions" about people

See how you make your assumptions. If like most people, then you base your predictions on how the person behaved in the recent past.

To predict the future, you simply projected a person's past into it. You relied on the vector of human actions. You also took into account those points that a person did not develop in his life.

For example, if you know that someone has raised their income by 10% per year, it will probably happen again next year. You can also assume that it will work in the same place.

If someone has been in the same relationship for over 10 years, you assume that they will be in the same relationship next year.

If someone's company was drastically reducing staff, you would assume that the person working there will either be fired within a year, or will already be out of a job, or will remain in the same company in a year.

If someone is behind on loan payments and gets paperwork that they are about to be evicted from their home, then you can predict the future that they will move into a smaller house or apartment within a year, or even live in a communal flat.

Of course, you might argue that we need to consider the past as well as the present when making decisions. But since the present is only a short moment, we don't need to do that.

The past includes your entire life from a second ago to a long time ago, and it contains all the information you need. If you think you need to include in this interval what is in the present, wait a second. And now this second has become the past.

If you claim to know something about a person, then all this is from the past.

Write down your guesses

I suggest that you write down some of your assumptions about the people in your life. Write them down in your journal. Then make a note on your calendar for the year ahead, something like "Flip through your predictions from a year ago." If you use an online calendar, it will take a few seconds. Then, when you remember about it in a year, scroll through your predictions. To what extent did they come true?

If you are almost not mistaken, how is this possible? And why were your predictions so accurate?

If you made a mistake, why not? Did something unpredictable happen? Did you have enough information to make an accurate prediction? Have you overstated or downplayed certain factors?

What conclusion can you draw from this exercise to make a more accurate prediction next time?

You are more predictable than you think

It is much easier to predict the future of other people than your own. When we look at other people's lives, our ego is not very interested in them. But it’s quite difficult to look at ourselves objectively, especially when we don’t like everything in our life.

Nobody wants to predict that in a year they will have to mortgage their house to pay off their debts, or that they will put on 20 kg of weight, or will still be in a difficult or unpleasant relationship.

However, this will require you to turn off your ego and "listen" as much as possible, which is not easy for most people.

Try this: make a few guesses about where you'll be in a year, but base your predictions only on a solid factual basis of the past 30 days.

Make notes about what you ate, how you slept, how you worked, communicated, created, etc. - but only for the last 30 days! Recognize that this will continue for the next 12 months. If you feel like the last 30 days were atypical for you, such as being on vacation or traveling, then use the last 90 days.

Use this chart to predict your life in a year. Think about what will happen if your patterns of behavior continue into the future. Where will they take you in a year?

Come to terms with the truth

Coming to terms with which path you are on means being able to make objective predictions about where you are heading. What will become various aspects your life in a year or later?

In order to make accurate guesses, you cannot refer to your goals or intentions. For all your future aspirations, just intentions and goals are not enough.

Imagine that you are in a jury trial trying to make a decision based on the facts. Goals and intentions will then be unacceptable to you because they are not facts. They are just opinions or speculations about how this or that might turn out. But in order to give accurate forecast you have to look at the past and only the past.

You may not really want to hear this, but I bring this to your attention.

If you get too emotional about your predictions (whether you are positive or negative), stop and take a break. Our future predictions require logical, left-brain thinking. This is not the time or place for emotional or illogical judgments. Just pretend to be a volcano or a robot to yourself.

Review the questions I asked you above about your acquaintance. ("Looking at others"). Now ask the same questions to yourself. Refer only to your recent past to predict the future (last 30-90 days).

Imagine for a second that you are Mr. Superman or Mr. Information, and take your best shot at where your personality will be in a year based on your career, finances, relationships, health, daily habits, spiritual practices, etc. Make assumptions about everyone important areas of your life.

Then do the same with the "predictions" in your journal, and mark your calendar in a year to compare. And don't roll your eyes so touchingly :)

What is it that you need a year for this exercise? Time will flow as usual, but in a year this information will be very useful to you. Perhaps you will be intrigued to see an important mark on the calendar in a year and find in your notes a valuable gift for your inner growth? Or maybe you take everything written for granted?

Intoxicated by illusion

When you learn from your past, you find certain patterns recurring throughout your life. Many of them are ineffective for you. Based on your own history, the results are predictably bad. But we so easily forget everything and repeat the same mistakes!

One of these recurring patterns (life scenarios) that I myself have observed in my past is what I call a reckless approach to developing my personal growth.

This is when someone becomes energized at the thought of the changes they will make in their life. And he feels a surge of something - perhaps adrenaline ... or sometimes caffeine - and already decides that everything will turn out in the end just radically cooler than it was. And usually believe in it. Such people make new decisions and start doing something new, but their actions are inconsistent and chaotic.

Most of their actions are one-time, and they do not go beyond the old habits.

For example, they let other people know they want to change and even ask for advice to get started, but they don't go beyond that. It is obvious that the excitement from new perspectives in life just seethes, but the person is sucked back into the framework of habitual actions. And there is no real change.

If you look at your past, especially if you've been taking notes, you'll see yourself going around in circles of repetitive patterns, along with all the consequences that come with it. Armed with this knowledge, you can consciously reject such strategies, as well as other habits of yours that have never worked.

You can see that they obviously don't change anything in the future. Your approaches have not worked in the past, so there is no reason to suspect that they will work in the future. If you repeat them, you will get the same results as before.

Make notes - beautiful way recognize repeating patterns and no longer follow them. Otherwise, it's all too easy to forget your tendency to do so and be fooled again by the illusion that something is changing.

What other schemes in your past didn't work? What helped you?

When did you experience your biggest breakthrough, how did it happen?

Can you do the same things that help you today?

Change the past - change the predictions for the future

My next suggestion may sound a bit odd, but I want to give you a fresh perspective on how to create lasting change. Instead of trying to change your present or future, focus on changing your past. In other words, if you want to change something in your life, bring evidence of change in the past. The only way to do this is to act in the present, not just act. If you do something ill-conceived, as has already been described about "intoxicating illusory actions", then what will you really bring to your past?

Definitely not a success. We can tell you will bring failure or even stupidity into the past as you repeat your unsuccessful strategy. And this leads to the introduction of an unsuccessful past into the future.

Instead, you need to graft a form of permanence into the past. Set up a new behavior pattern. And then the new recent past will change your assumptions about the future.

As I said, this may seem like a strange way of looking at things, but it will force you to think in a new way, which is exactly what we are trying to achieve.

What actions do you need to take to instill a new chain of permanence in your past so that you have more certainty in your predictions for the future?

As you can guess, the best activities are those that you do regularly and can keep doing for at least a year or more. These are the actions on which we ourselves base predictions about the possible future of other people.

What did this person eat? Who did he meet? Where does he go to work? What is the amount of his purchases? How does he spend Sunday mornings?

All these actions characterize where he is going. They represent the direction of life. These are habits.

Real action, not just thinking

You will get a way to predict success instead of failure once you establish new habits for yourself. But until that happens, your main prediction for the future will be your lack of concrete action. If you don't do this, your goals and intentions are simply dormant. They may never come true.

These habits may be new ways of thinking, but if they are meaningful, they will definitely develop into new forms of behavior. No new action means no new prospects for the future. If you want change, you must create evidence for it. And this is equal to new habits in life. No new habits equals no change in assumptions about the future.

Predictable Changes vs. Volatile Assumptions

It is now possible to assume that your existing life habits serve you well. Perhaps your assumptions about the future are positive and you expect the same positive forecasts to continue. This is a great situation. I myself am happy with this situation in many areas of my life. It's great to see that if I do what I'm doing now, my life will get better and better in every way.

This is a good predictable change. And this situation is easy to manage, because if you just maintain the "status quo" in your habits, you're done.

However, in this article, we are focusing on a situation that you do not like the prospect of in the future. You don't like what might happen sometime. Perhaps your assumptions are negative or neutral. Or just not positive enough for you. In this case, you want to change them.

Don't lie to yourself and don't exaggerate where your real habits are taking you. Remember - this is all we need for our own future.

Again, forget about your intentions and focus on predicting the future based on reliable past information. Don't assume you'll double your annual income this year when it's only increased 10% in the past.

If you cannot predict the future approximately, the only way to change the assumptions without changing the accuracy is to change the past. It will take time, but it is quite possible. You can change the past by instilling a new life habit or changing an existing one.

But everything in your life will be the same until you do away with the old habit and find a new one to replace it. This is where you need to make efforts to develop personal growth.

Focus on the changes in your life and start instilling new patterns into your life, embodying them in the present (which immediately becomes the past). If you fail to do so, your honest assumptions will not change. And you will also walk on the past roads.

Break with the past

Look at the elements of the past that determine your predictions. What habits cause you to make negative predictions about the future?

Are you out of your mind at the thought of your eating or sleeping habits? Do your relationship habits frustrate you?

What results do you get from daily work? Where are your spiritual practices leading? Are you spending money recklessly?

Changing habits can be difficult, but a great way to get started is the 30 Day Method.

If you really want to create major change, you probably often think about wanting to break with the past. Break these past patterns so that they are completely obsolete.

Instantly create a complete disconnect from the past - so that your past predictions are no longer valid... Even if it means trading the comfort of certainty for the discomfort of unpredictability. For example, stop debilitating relationships that create too many negative predictions.

Cut lazy friends out of your life and start befriending the most energetic and organized people. Feel free to move to a city with great financial and career opportunities.

Stop eating unhealthy foods and offer $100 to anyone who catches you eating them next year.

Make it impossible to live with old habits for the next 30 days. If you cannot end the past by ending it, then it will surely become your future.

To change the future, change the past

Consider 2 scenarios. Bill and Ted both want to write a book by the end next year. They had never written a book before.

Bill is not in the habit of writing something every day, but he has a clear goal. He knows what book he wants to write. When people ask him what he's working on, he tells them he's writing a book. Over the past 30 days, he has spent a lot of time thinking about his book. He even sketched out some ideas for her, but he did it according to his mood.

Ted has no specific goals and intentions to write a book. He did not tell anyone that he was writing it. He does not even really know what chapters will be in it. But for the last 30 days, he got up at 5:00 every morning and worked on it until 7:00 until breakfast.

He created about 2 pages of useful content per day. He just worked all this time on his book, that's all. He did this regularly and without fail. Nothing happened in his life that would distract him from this habit.

Only one of these people finished the book by the end of the year - who do you think?

Whose approach helped produce the completed book within a year?

How do you approach such things in your life? And how does your approach work?

Is your success or failure predictable?

Goals and Assumptions

Now don't misunderstand me. Goals and intentions are amazing. Having a clear idea of ​​what to do next is important. But making a decision is only the first step.

If that's all you're going to do, then I can only predict for you occasional success and a life of mediocrity. I have seen many times how such patterns occur in people's lives and the result is always predictable.

You must accurately project your goals and intentions into the past in order to create circumstances that confirm that your predictions about the future are accurate. So you change your usual course.

Install new goal It's like taking a new course at the helm of a ship.

Create a new action habit that says, "Participate! Get involved! Take action!" Otherwise, the ship of your life will never sail...

Tony, I'm sorry :)

More information on this topic, and many practical recommendations, you will find in the article: From goals to habits.

This text is a translation of Steve Pavlina's article The Past DOES Equal the Future
The author of the translation is unknown. Article submitted by a reader.

Academician V. ALEKSEEV, Director of the Institute of History and Archeology Ural Branch RAS, winner of the Demidov Prize in 2006 (Yekaterinburg).

Politicians and academics talk and write a lot about the importance of past experience for making responsible decisions today. but such appeals, as a rule, do not go beyond political and ideological controversy, while the practical solution of this complex problem is primarily necessary for Russia. for many centuries our country did not draw the right conclusions from its troubles, repeating errors of different form, but of the same type in content. usually it tries to seize on the "tails" of someone else's experience, without taking into account how such experience can serve in the specific conditions of Russia.

DOES HISTORY TEACH ANYTHING?

There were and still are many doubts about this. The great German philosopher G. Hegel wrote: “Rulers, statesmen and peoples are advised with importance to learn from the experience of history. But experience and history teach that peoples and governments have never learned anything from history and have not acted according to the lessons that could be drawn from it.” The quotation is usually cut off at this point. Meanwhile, Hegel continued: “Each epoch is such an individual state that in this epoch it is necessary and possible to make only such decisions that follow from this state itself ... In the turmoil of world events, it does not help general principle or the memory of similar circumstances, because the pale memory of the past has no power in comparison with the vitality and freedom of the present.

Consequently, the point is not that history does not teach anything, but that in the turmoil of hasty decisions and “pale memories” of the past (in other words, bad knowledge), its teachings cannot be compared with the present and future.

And there are both objective and subjective reasons. The main objective reason is that historical processes are extended in time and it is not always possible to accurately correlate causes and effects, which, moreover, are complicated by character traits. historical figures and random circumstances. The subjective reasons are the brevity of human life compared to the duration of the historical process and the limited ability of people who are not sufficiently prepared for this to draw lessons from the past. Meanwhile, only the past is eternal. And it may turn out to be more essential for making vital decisions than momentary collisions.

As political and social relations in society become more complex, in my opinion, the need to take into account the historical roots of many phenomena becomes more urgent. At first, this was approached timidly. In the first half of the 19th century, V. G. Belinsky wrote: “We question and interrogate the past so that it explains our present to us and hints to us about our future.” His compatriot, philosopher and propagandist of Marxism G. V. Plekhanov at the end of the same century more confidently stated: “The future is able to foresee the one who understands the past.” And in the 20th century, the Spanish philosopher J. Ortega y Gasset stated categorically: “Prophecy is possible in history. Moreover, history is only as much a scientific activity as it makes prophecy possible.”

Gone are almost all the absolutist regimes that did their own thing without looking back either at the past or at the present, without thinking about the fact that some features of the past could interfere with the creation of the future. Today we face an extremely complicated world, humanity has to reckon with many fragments of a past life that suddenly make themselves felt in a variety of manifestations, upsetting the fragile balance of the social and natural environment.

Now, looking at the past, “listening to good and evil with indifference,” is a thankless task. We need to reflect on the past, draw positive and negative lessons from it, and understand how it affects the present and future. When making important decisions today, it is necessary to look back at the powerful layers of international legal norms, traditions, mentality and cultural and religious foundations of different peoples, and finally, at the principles of democracy and human rights. Otherwise, the consequences can be unpredictable, and Chechnya is one of the convincing examples of this. Let us recall the words of the outstanding Russian historian V. O. Klyuchevsky, who warned a hundred years ago: “History teaches even those who do not learn from it. She teaches them a lesson for ignorance and neglect...”

Nevertheless, in the past century, the lessons of history have been neglected by almost everyone. The Romanovs, who missed the revolution creeping from Europe. Lenin, who set out to build planetary communism, when the capitalist world had largely critical stage of its development. Stalin, who in his insane social experiments relied on the immense patience of the Russian people (in the end, this led to a sharp decrease in the country's population). Hitler, striving for unrealizable world domination. Brezhnev and his associates, who imprudently shook the foundations of the system that fed them. And, finally, the US authorities, apparently completely forgotten about the grandiose chaos that accompanies the fall of established empires and is capable of absorbing both the defeated and the winners. Those who have studied history know what cataclysms the collapse of the Roman Empire caused, how far and long its echo rumbled (something similar is happening today after the collapse of the Soviet Union).

HISTORICAL SCIENCE AND THE REQUEST OF THE TIME

It would seem that the mere enumeration of the facts of recent history speaks of the importance of historical experience. However, practice shows otherwise. Probably, the reason lies in the humanities itself, which for a long time was subjected to harsh ideological pressure and noticeably lagged behind natural science knowledge. And if we want historical science today to meet the requirements of the time, it needs to move from traditional descriptiveness to analysis and forecasting. Only in this way can one learn to extract useful knowledge from the past and apply it in social practice. But first of all, let's talk about how the concepts of “historical knowledge” and “historical experience” correlate. They cannot be identified. Having a single objective basis in the real historical process, these categories imply different goals and, consequently, different results of research. historical experience is an integral part of historical knowledge, or, in other words, a retrospective assessment (from the standpoint of modern social practice) of the past in its relation to subsequent development, to the results of this development. Such an approach makes it possible to comprehend the historical situation not simply as a fait accompli, but as a complex probabilistic relationship between possibility and reality, between past and present; explore alternative options objectively embedded in the historical process, positive and negative decisions, progressive and regressive trends, the likelihood of their manifestation in the future.

There is no established concept of “historical experience” (it is often confused with historical knowledge or reduced to ideological clichés). I would define historical experience as a concentrated expression of the social practice of the past and the identification of patterns community development that help to find the most reasonable solutions to the problems of our time. Historical experience is inherently multifunctional. From this set, I will single out three most relevant functions: expert, comparative and predictive.

1. Expert function - an assessment of the level of development of a state, region or human community, necessary to understand how the named objects meet modern requirements. The same function reveals justified forms of activity and unused development alternatives, as well as negative phenomena. It helps to understand the origins of near and far erroneous decisions, various kinds of remnants that hinder progress. It is this kind of analysis that makes it possible to formulate long-term trends in development, to show the causes of stability or, conversely, disruption of established forms of activity, to trace the reaction of the population to the preservation or destruction of old forms and the introduction of new ones.

2. comparative function. Its task is to compare the levels, ways and methods of development of historical periods, for example, the existence of states, in order to identify and take into account useful experience. Such a comparison of experience is of great importance, especially for lagging countries and regions.

3. The prognostic function of historical experience is closely connected with the two named and follows from them. It is the most responsible, complex and less developed in practice.

A, on the other hand, is it real? Is it possible to refer to specific historical forecasts? Can. Here are some of them.

In 1835, the American A. Tocqueville wrote: “At present, there are two great peoples on earth who, starting from different points, are apparently approaching the same goal: these are Russians and Anglo-Americans. Both of them grew imperceptibly; and when the eyes of the people were turned the other way, they suddenly took a place in the front row between the nations, so that the world almost at the same time knew both their appearance and their greatness.<...>For one, the main means of action is freedom, for the other - obedience. Their starting points are different; and each of them is equally destined, apparently, by the secret will of providence, to hold the fate of half the world someday in their hands.

This prediction came true by the middle of the next century.

B. I. Lenin on turn of XIX and XX centuries substantiated the possibility of the victory of the socialist revolution in one single country and confirmed this with the October Revolution of 1917 and subsequent events. Almost at the same time, another figure in the socialist movement, G. V. Plekhanov, argued the impossibility of building real socialism in Russia. And in the end, he was right. L. N. Tolstoy warned that if faith collapses in Russia, then the country will turn into a kingdom of money, vodka and debauchery for many years to come. And so it happened when faith collapsed twice - first in Orthodoxy and the tsar, and then in socialism and communism.

The forecasts of the outstanding Russian thinker of the 20th century I. A. Ilyin are striking in their realism. I will give two examples. The first is from the sphere of domestic politics, when he warned: “If anything can inflict new, gravest blows on Russia after communism, then it is stubborn attempts to establish a democratic system in it after totalitarian tyranny. For this tyranny managed to undermine in Russia all the necessary prerequisites for democracy<...>, without which only a rampage of the mob, general corruption and venality, and the emergence of more and more anti-communist tyrants are possible ...” This is what happened almost throughout the entire post-Soviet space.

In another example, concerning the foreign policy area, Ilyin focused on the fact that the post-communist dismemberment of Russia “would be a political adventure unprecedented in history, the disastrous consequences of which humanity would suffer for a long time.”<...>, in our era, the whole universe will be drawn into this process.” According to his calculations, in this case, “up to twenty separate states” will arise, having neither indisputable territory, nor authoritative governments, nor laws, nor courts, nor an army, nor an indisputable national population ... And human depravity will rush into these whirlpools of separatist anarchy : adventurers trained by the revolution under new surnames, mercenaries of neighboring powers, foreign adventurers ... “This is not smart,” Ilyin sums up. - Shortsighted. Hastily in hatred and hopelessness for ages. Russia is not human dust and not chaos. She is first of all great people... Do not bury him prematurely! The historical hour will come, he will rise from the imaginary coffin and demand back his rights!”

Much of what Ilyin predicted came true. The Soviet Union is no more. True, not 20, but 15 separate states emerged, but the process has not yet been completed.

BASIS FOR FORECASTS - WHAT IS IT?

Various versions are given in the literature - from the predictions of the Magi and holy fools to strict mathematical calculations. It seems to me that, first of all, it is necessary to turn to the historical process, during which a variety of plots and documents have been accumulated that help to understand the interaction between the past, present and future. However, one should not think that a historical forecast can be accurate to the day and hour, or spread over many centuries. It has a medium-term, probabilistic effect in the range, as a rule, of a certain historical era. The task is not to predict a fantastic future, but to try to put at the service of society the historical experience of the past, which is necessary to optimize human activity today and in the future.

According to the German scientist K. Jaspers, “only the history of mankind as a whole can give a scale for understanding what is happening at the present time.” It is difficult to approach such a scale, but the idea that the past largely determines the present and future is true and extremely promising for forecasting, especially in relation to Russia, whose history consists of many strata. different eras(Norman, Byzantine, Mongolian, etc.), which left an indelible mark on her fate, still sensitive.

The patterns of historical processes are manifested in many spheres of human existence. The most universal demographic cycles. The outstanding French historian F. Braudel wrote about this: “Demographic ebb and flow is a symbol of the life of past times - these are successive ups and downs, and the first ones almost nullify, but not completely! - second. Compared to these fundamental realities, everything (or almost everything) may seem secondary).”

On the basis of demographic cycles, it is possible not only to deeply reveal the past historical dynamics, but also to imagine the future with a high degree of certainty. Such cycles are traced on the materials of antiquity, the Middle Ages and modern times. There are more than 20 demographic cycles in the Middle East, 13 in China, and South and Western Europe- 8. The representative of the French Annales school, E. Labrousse, proved that the final stage of the cycle is the revolution, and traced this on the example of the Great french revolution, and the American scientist J. Tolstone showed in detail the role of overpopulation in a series of revolutions of the 16th-19th centuries.

The noted pattern was used not only for analytical and prognostic, but also for pragmatic purposes. For example, in order to prevent revolutions in Europe after the First World War (on the basis of demographic cycles), on the recommendation of the famous English economist J. Keynes, the Dawes plan was introduced, and after the Second World War, the Marshall plan. Both of them were supposed to help the warring countries return to a peaceful, measured life as soon as possible.

In the second half of the 20th century, in the conditions of the population explosion that swept the third world, there was a threat of large-scale famine. In 1972, the report of the Club of Rome "The Limits to Growth" was published, which predicted the inevitability of famine and social crisis in many countries of the world. Indeed, out of 20 chronically starving states, half became the scene of uprisings and revolutions. To limit the scope of the revolutionary movement, starving countries were provided with serious economic assistance, which to a certain extent stabilized the situation in the third world.

Ural researcher S. A. Nefedov applied the theory of demographic cycles to Russia and revealed their influence on revolutionary events in it, including the revolution of the early twentieth century. It is curious that J. Keynes, describing the difficulties of overpopulation in Europe on the eve of the First World War, wrote that the colossal upheavals of 1917-1922 in Russia, perhaps, are much more a consequence of population growth than the activities of Lenin or the delusions of Nicholas II. (In the years leading up to 1914, the annual population growth of Russia reached a huge figure - 2 million people.)

Turning to the historical cycles of Russia is also productive for taking into account secular and quarter-century trends (trends). The boundaries of the last four centuries were marked by fundamental changes. At the end of each of the preceding centuries, a phase of disintegration developed, reaching its apogee in the tenth years of the following, and then a phase of rebirth followed. The turn of the 17th century - the Time of Troubles, the accession of a new dynasty - the Romanovs, - then a national upsurge. The turn of the 18th century - an unsuccessful start Northern war, the reforms of Peter I, then entering the European arena. The turn of the 19th century was the invasion of Napoleon, his exile, which led to Russia's leadership in the Holy Alliance of European States. The turn of the 20th century is the defeat in the First World War, the collapse of the empire, a radical change in the political regime and a gradual transition to a superpower. Frontier XXI century - the collapse of the Soviet Union, liberal reforms. It is possible that the tenth years of the current century will become the apogee of the fifth century cycle, as happened in 1610-1613, 1708-1709, 1812-1814 and 1914-1917.

Within the secular cycles, there are quarter-century cycles associated with the change of political elites, which is of fundamental importance under authoritarian regimes. The last two centuries convincingly confirm this trend.

1801 - the assassination of Emperor Paul I, accession to the throne of Alexander I, fundamental changes in the domestic and foreign policy of the state. 1825 - death of Alexander I, accession of Nicholas I, Nikolaev reaction. 1855 - the death of Nicholas I and the accession to the throne of Alexander II, the abolition of serfdom, bourgeois reforms. 1881 - assassination of Alexander II, coming to power of Alexander III, counter-reforms. 1894 - death of Alexander III, ascension to the throne of Nicholas II, World War I, revolution in Russia. 1917 - abdication of the throne by Nicholas II, the establishment of Soviet power by Lenin. 1937 - the approval of the Stalinist dictatorship, the destruction of the Leninist guard, the active phase of socialist transformations, the Patriotic War. 1953 - Stalin's death, de-Stalinization, Khrushchev's reforms. 1964 - the removal of Khrushchev from power, the arrival of Brezhnev, a superpower and stagnation. 1982 - Brezhnev's death, Gorbachev's perestroika. 1991 - Yeltsin was elected Chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR, the collapse of the Soviet Union, liberal reforms.

During the last two centuries of Russian history, the average duration of the reign of each elite ranged from 20-25 years (with a few exceptions - Alexander III, Khrushchev, Yeltsin). All the elites listed above had a pronounced political personality and a decisive influence on the historical processes in Russia. In other words, with the weak democratic traditions of our Fatherland, the fate of the country was mainly determined by the ruling personality and his entourage. After Brezhnev, this trend began to blur, and now the question is: what will happen to the country after the 25th anniversary of his departure, in 2008? Moreover, approximately at this time, the apogee of the fifth centenary cycle of Russian history falls.

FORECASTS AND REALITIES

With respect to authoritarianism political regimes It is not superfluous to turn to predicting the emergence of a dictatorship. Back in 1650, during the Fronde in France, Cardinal D. Mazarin wrote: "Unrest, when they reach the extreme, inevitably leads to the establishment of absolute power." In practice, this was soon confirmed by King Louis XIV, saying to Parliament: “Gentlemen, do you think that the state is you? The state is me!” Based on Caesar's experience in pacifying Gaul, Catherine II predicted the emergence of a dictator in revolutionary France even before the advent of Napoleon.

It is well known that the Bolshevik dictatorship in Russia was established as a result of the chaos generated by the defeats in the First World War and the February Revolution. All subsequent dictatorships, be it Hitler's, Pinochet's and many others, arose under similar conditions. Hence the conclusion: the line between democracy and dictatorship is very thin, and the whole question is how to catch its fluctuations in a timely and correct manner. It is possible that in the conditions of the impoverishment of a significant part of the population of present-day Russia and the sharp confrontation between political forces, an attempt by one of them to achieve its hegemony may push towards dictatorship.

Historical forecast requires a deep knowledge of the situation in the country and development trends. In February 1914, a member of the State Council, far from socialist convictions, Russian Empire P. N. Durnovo, in a special “Note to the Sovereign”, substantiated the thesis that in Russia “every revolutionary movement will inevitably degenerate into a socialist one,” since “the peasant dreams of granting him alien land for free, the worker dreams of transferring all capital to him and manufacturers' profits. This is exactly what happened in 1917.

In the current situation, the peasant, remembering collectivization and dispossession, is not very eager to land, and the worker, according to some sociological surveys, thinks about the same as in the days of Durnovo. The same Durnovo in the same “Note.” based on the experience of the unsuccessful war with Japan and the revolution of 1905 that followed it in Russia, he predicted with amazing accuracy the development of events in the country in the event of defeat in the war with Germany: defeated country social revolution will inevitably break out<...>Russia will be plunged into hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which cannot even be foreseen.”

There are also broader historical parallels that are predictive in nature. On January 25, 1917, the Russian Minister of Finance P. Bark, speaking at the Petrograd Conference of the Entente, said that prices in Russia had risen 4-5 times, much more than in other warring countries. “If the exchange rate of the ruble is not supported,” he argued, “then a catastrophe is possible, as during the French Revolution.” In France, by February 1793, the value of the banknote had fallen to 50 percent of the face value, and a wave of food riots swept through the country, which brought the Jacobins to power. After 124 years, the Entente did not support the Russian ruble, and a month later what Bark predicted happened - the February Revolution took place. General stages Russian revolution, understood in a broad historical retrospective, are reminiscent of French, and it is possible that Russia will still have to repeat some of them.

LOOK INTO THE PAST TO UNDERSTAND THE PRESENT

Historical parallels and comparative analysis give an idea of ​​what stages, with what positives and negatives, certain countries came to the present. This is convincingly done by K. Jaspers in the concept of axial time (he refers to 800-200 BC), in which he compares the synchronism of the fundamental historical processes in India, China, Iran, Palestine and Greece. (See "Science and Life" No. - "Axial Time" on the shoulders of giants. - Note ed.) These processes are still actively manifested in the life of many peoples, primarily in religions, which still have a huge impact on all aspects of life the population of the planet.

From the same positions, let's look at the consequences of the great geographical discoveries. Spain and Portugal, who received colossal wealth as a result of these discoveries, spent them on fantastic luxury, slowing down the development of their economies. But England used "colonial goods" and the income from them for the intensive development of the economy and turned into a "workshop of the world." England became a powerful empire, while Spain and Portugal remained minor states. Will the same happen to Russia when its energy resources are exhausted or the demand for them falls?

The second plot from the field of historical forecasts is connected with the most important problem of the transition from a traditional agrarian society to a modern industrial one and forecasting the entry into a post-industrial one. Russia embarked on this path two centuries later than the leading Western powers and followed it very slowly and inconsistently until the first quarter of the 20th century. This led to a significant lag behind it from the civilized world. Rigidly carried out in the twentieth century, the modernization of industry and Agriculture this gap has been drastically reduced. But the process was interrupted by the liberal reforms of the early 1990s, which destroyed half of the country's industrial potential. Interrupted modernization is dangerous in opposite extremes. On the one hand, attempts to go back to complete previously started processes - this leads to the consolidation of archaism. On the other hand, the desire to break through into the future by any means, not shunning any means, and this is fraught with radicalism and extremism.

This already happened in Russia at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, when the post-reform bourgeois modernization was interrupted and radical Bolshevik modernization began. Today, there is a semblance of completion of some previously initiated processes. And tomorrow the radicals may prevail.

Trying to look into the Russian future, it is worth considering the national traditions and character traits of the people. The saying “Russians take a long time to harness, but go fast” is widely known. Evidence of this is the high pace of Peter's and Stalin's reforms. First defeats, and then brilliant victories in many wars. Progress in Russia was often imposed by force,

Through revolutions from above, often more bloody than from below. After a certain time, they were replaced by deep stagnation. The price of Russian reforms is, as a rule, very high. Again, the eras of Peter I and Stalin testify to this.

One should not expect easy solutions to Russian problems, given the vast size of the country, difficult natural and climatic conditions, the constant shortage of financial resources and other complicating circumstances. Here we have to recall the assessment of V. O. Klyuchevsky, who said: “Nature and fate led the Great Russian in such a way that they taught him to go to the straight road in a roundabout way. The Great Russian thinks and acts as he walks. It seems that you can come up with a crooked and winding Great Russian country road? Like a snake crawled through. And try to go straighter - you will only get lost and go out onto the same winding path.

In order to break out of the vicious circle that dooms the country to an endless crisis, a thorough analysis of the combination of innovations and traditions in Russian life is necessary. More than one reform and even a revolution has drowned in the quagmire of our “originality”. Again, V. O. Klyuchevsky, characterizing the bourgeois reforms of the second half of XIX century, noted: "While admiring how the reform transformed the Russian antiquity, they did not see how the Russian antiquity transformed the reform." Something similar happened with the latest liberal reforms. Consequently, the main question is not only what model to take for the transformation of Russia, but how to adapt it to Russian reality.

Thinking about the prospects for Russia, one cannot but take into account the endless “dispossession” that bleeds the economy. Despite the dissimilarity of such Russian phenomena as the oprichnina, enslavement, emancipation of the peasants, collectivization, nationalization, privatization, they have one common root - the incessant rude change in the form of ownership, which eats up all the accumulations of society. The same practice of "dispossession" dominated in the political sphere.

AFTERWORD

At all times, bureaucracy, “nettle seed”, as it was called by the people, has been a disaster for Russia. If in the imperial period officials served certain classes under their strict control, now they themselves have become a privileged class, accountable to no one. In this regard, the country almost returned to the post-Petrine stagnation, when the government manifesto of January 9, 1727 admitted: they have their own special offices and clerical servants, and their own special court, and each of the poor people drags the poor people in their own affairs.

Sad parallels can be drawn between the criminality of the beginning and end of the 20th century. The provisional government, having released thousands of prisoners from prisons in March 1917, did not suspect that a significant part of them would quickly adapt to the new regime and join it. The criminals, who recognized the Bolsheviks, grew into the party and even into the Cheka. Who did not do this, was destroyed by the same Cheka. So the political and the criminal have merged. Part of the crime became bureaucracy, and part of the bureaucracy became crime. These tendencies appear sometimes even today.

My reflections, of course, do not pretend to be forecasts, but they make it clear that they must be taken into account in predicting the future of the country in order to avoid a typical Russian paradox - “what was created yesterday was considered a bad tomorrow, and what was created yesterday was created today” .

Of course, in order to predict the future, it is important not only to take into account the continuity of traditions oriented towards the past, but also the changes that the future brings with it. Moreover, continuity and change must somehow be combined, their interaction must be understood, and for this humanitarian knowledge, historical thinking is not enough. We need a history equipped with a mathematical apparatus - broad time series and mathematical models that are equally well understood by both mathematicians and historians, but this is another problem.