Let's consider project risks separately. How to assess risks in project implementation

Remark 1

There are no projects without risks.

As the complexity of a project increases, so does the number and magnitude of the associated risk. When managing projects in a meaningful way, the most important thing to think about is not intermediate risk analysis activities, but rather how to develop a response plan to reduce the level of risk.

The concept of project implementation risk

Definition 1

The risk of project implementation is a probable event that leads to the fact that the decision-maker loses the opportunity to achieve the planned result of the project or its individual parameters, characterized by time, quantitative and cost assessment.

Project risks are always associated with uncertainty, which is such a state of objective conditions for accepting a project for execution that does not allow planning the consequences of decisions due to the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the available information. If there is no information about the risk, then it becomes unknown, and it is necessary to lay a special reserve for it without implementing management procedures. For a threat for which there is at least a minimum of information, a response plan can be developed, which makes risk minimization possible.

It seems expedient to repeatedly conduct risk assessment in the course of project implementation. The most optimal risk minimization occurs within the framework of the project idea development stage or at the time of approval project documentation.

The main risks inherent in most projects include:

• marketing risk;
• risk of violation of the project schedule;
• the risk of non-compliance with the project budget;
• general economic risks.

Marketing risk refers to the risk of not receiving profits due to a reduction in sales volumes or the price of a product. The reasons for the emergence of risks of non-compliance with the schedule or exceeding the project budget can be both objective factors (changes in customs duties customs clearance of equipment, which leads to a delay in cargo), as well as subjective factors (poor quality of work or inconsistency of work).

General economic risks are risks that are associated with factors external to the enterprise (changes in exchange rates and interest rate increase or decrease in inflation).

Elements of a project risk assessment

The modern risk management methodology for project implementation provides for active work with the causes and consequences of identified hazards and threats. Risk management is a set of interrelated processes that are based on the identification, assessment of risks, determination of measures to reduce the scale of adverse consequences arising from the occurrence of a risk event.

The main procedures for assessing the risks of project implementation:

1. identification;
2. analysis;
3. drawing up a response plan;
4. control and monitoring.

Identification is the definition of risk based on the identified factors of its occurrence, as well as the documentation of its parameters. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the sources of occurrence and the likelihood of adverse consequences is actually an evaluation procedure. In the course of planning the response to the identified factors, it is planned to develop measures to reduce the negative impact on the parameters and results of the project. Due to the dynamism and uniqueness of the events of the risks associated with them, project activities especially need an effective system of monitoring and control involved at each stage of the project life cycle.

Project risk management

Management of risks project activities implies the following:

• understanding by the participants of threats and uncertainties in the project implementation environment, their causes and possible negative events as a result of the emergence of risks.
• search for opportunities for effective and efficient solution of project tasks, taking into account the identified uncertainty.
• identification of ways to reduce the risks of project implementation.
• finalization of the project plan, taking into account emerging risks and a set of measures to reduce them.

Remark 2

If, based on the results of the assessment, the project can be accepted for execution, then the enterprise will have to solve the problem of managing the identified risk. In case of high uncertainty of the project, it should be sent for revision, after which a qualitative and quantitative risk assessment is again carried out.

When working on a project, as stated in the Guidelines, the following most important types of risks should be distinguished:

associated with the instability of economic legislation and the current economic situation, conditions for investment and use of profits;

foreign economic (the possibility of introducing restrictions on trade and supplies, closing borders, etc.);

unfavorable socio-political changes in the country and region, caused by the uncertainty of the political situation;

incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the dynamics of technical and economic indicators, parameters new technology and technology;

associated with fluctuations in market conditions, prices, exchange rates, etc.;

caused by the uncertainty of natural and climatic conditions, the possibility of natural disasters;

production and technological (accidents and equipment failures, manufacturing defects, etc.);

associated with the uncertainty of the goals, interests and behavior of the participants;

caused by incomplete or inaccurate information about the financial position and business reputation of participating enterprises (possibility of non-payments, bankruptcies, breaches of contractual obligations).

Table General classification of project risks

Each such mixed classification may contain its own set of risks, depending on the chosen angle of view on project activities, the available material on already implemented projects, and the experience of specialists trying to develop a matrix of “typical” risks of project activities. Some types of projects may have their own specific risks associated with their regional and sectoral characteristics.

There are risks:

dynamic- the risk of unforeseen changes in the cost estimates of the project due to changes in initial management decisions, as well as changes in market or political circumstances. Such changes can lead to both losses and additional income.

static- the risk of loss of real assets due to damage to property or an unsatisfactory organization. This risk can only lead to losses.

One of the most significant management risks is the risk of losing project control, the main reason for which is the difference in the ultimate goals of the investor and the management of the company implementing the project. Other reasons include: improper organization of work on the project; re-evaluation of the own contribution of the project participants; Russia's fairly widespread dismissive attitude towards the agreements reached; mistakes in financial management and their use for other purposes; developers focus on the process of work, and not on achieving results.

Under equal possible conditions for the implementation of the project, it is recommended to take into account the following types of risks.

Industrial - the risk of non-fulfillment of the planned scope of work and / or increase in costs, shortcomings in production planning and, as a result, an increase in the current costs of the enterprise.

Varieties of production risk:

Geological (the risk of incorrect determination of mineral reserves by the amount of useful substance in the ore, the presence of especially harmful impurities, by the conditions of occurrence and passage);

Environmental (risk of violating environmental standards, increasing production costs due to increased environmental protection costs, suspension or even complete closure of the facility for environmental reasons);

Managerial (due to the insufficient level of qualification and experience of managerial personnel).

Investment and financial - the risk of possible depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio, consisting of both own securities and acquired ones.

Marketing - the risk of reducing the volume of sales of the project product (goods, services) and prices for this product. Sales risk is also called market risk, marketing or price risk.

Political - the risk of loss or loss of profit due to changes in government policy.

Financial - risk associated with transactions with financial assets. Happens:

Interest - the possibility of an unplanned change in the interest rate when concluding long-term loan agreements based on a floating interest rate;

Credit - associated with the impossibility of the bank to fulfill the loan agreement due to financial collapse;

Currency - the risk of potential losses due to changes in exchange rates.

Economic - the risk of loss of a company's competitive position due to unforeseen changes in the company's economic environment, such as rising energy prices, interest rates on working capital loans, higher customs tariffs, and other similar factors.

Riskproject participants - the risk of deliberate or forced non-fulfillment by the participant of his obligations in the framework of the project activity.

Riskcost overrun project. Reasons for exceeding the estimated cost of the project may be design errors, the inability of the contractor to ensure the efficient use of resources, changes in the conditions for the implementation of the project (for example, price increases, tax increases).

Riskuntimely completion of construction. The reasons may be design errors, breach of obligations by the contractor, changes in external conditions (for example, a public demand to close the project for environmental reasons, additional administrative instructions from the authorities, bureaucratic delays, etc.).

Risklow quality work and the object may be due to a violation of the obligations of the contractor (and / or supplier of materials and equipment), design errors, etc.

Structural - the risk of technical impracticability of the project while still in the investment (construction) phase. It is due to possible miscalculations and errors of the developers of the design (technical) documentation, the insufficiency or inaccuracy of the initial information necessary for the development of this documentation, the lack of testing of building technologies.

Technological - the risk of deviation in the operation mode of the facility from the specified technical and economic parameters as a result of the use of production technologies that have not been tested on an industrial scale (the risk of increased operating costs, a large percentage of rejects, high accident rates, non-compliance with environmental standards, etc.)

Riskrefinancing . It arises in connection with the issuance by the leading bank (financing organizer) of the obligation to provide the borrower with a syndicated loan for a certain amount and difficulties arising in the course of subsequent loan syndication. This risk falls entirely on the lead bank.

Administrative - belongs to the category of external (exogenous). Associated with the receipt by the project company and other participants in the project activities of various licenses, permits and approvals from state regulatory and supervisory agencies.

country risks. Includes political and economic risks. However, they may not necessarily be related to the actions of the authorities of the host country. Some of the processes that negatively affect the project are spontaneous and weakly amenable to state regulation (at least in the short term). We are talking about both socio-political processes (wars, social unrest, bursts of crime, etc.), and economic ones (inflation, emigration of qualified personnel, a drop in demand for a project product in the domestic market, a general collapse of the economy, etc.).

Legal - V to some extent intersect with country, administrative, managerial. First of all, they are expressed in the uncertainty and uncertainty of the lender in the ability to realize guarantees and other collateral for the loan.

Force - major project risk - the risk of force majeure, the risk of natural disasters, refers to the category of external in relation to project activities and includes the risk of such natural phenomena as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. Some social and political natural phenomena: strikes, uprisings and revolutions, etc. Thus, some of the country risks can simultaneously be force majeure.

Self-Study Questions (SQS)

Dynamic and static risk.

Using risk classification in risk analysis.

Control questions

1. Formulate the principles of risk classification.

2. Give a general classification of risks according to classification criteria.

3. Determine what is the peculiarity of risk classification of investment projects.

4. Expand the concepts of "dynamic" and "static" risk.

5. Explain how risk classification is used in risk analysis.

List of educational and methodical and additional literature

Main literature:

Afanasiev A.M. Risk management investment project- UNITI, 2009.

additional literature

Gracheva M.V. Risk management of an investment project: a textbook for students of higher educational institutions studying in economic specialties / [M. V. Grachev and others] ed. M. V. Grachevoi, A. B. Sekerina Risk management of an investment project: Moscow, UNITI, 2009.

Agarkov S. A. Risk management (risk management): study guide. - St. Petersburg, Info-M, 2009.

Literature from the electronic catalog:

1. Zhivetin V.B. Risks and Safety of Aviation Systems - Publishing House of the Institute of Risk Problems, 2006.

2. Glushchenko V.V. Risks of innovation and investment activity in the context of globalization - SPC Wings, 2006.

3. Melnikova G.V. Reducing project and contract risks in the commercial preparation of license agreements - Ecostar, 2005.

4. Socio-economic risks: diagnosis of causes and predictive scenarios for neutralization - Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2010.

Lecture No. 3 "Project risk management process"

DE 1.4. Analysis and assessment of the degree of project risk

Risk management is a decision-making process, and the following five stages of decision-making can be distinguished:

1) recognition and verbal description of the decision-making situation;

2) formalized statement of the problem, formulation of the criterion (criteria) for choosing a solution;

3) development of solutions; forecasting the results of the adoption and implementation of the chosen decision;

4) evaluation and ordering of solutions;

5) choice of solution to be implemented.

At the first two stages, a criterion is formulated by which the preference of one or another solution is evaluated.

Accounting task risk factors arises at the 3rd and 4th stages, where it is necessary to identify risk factors for each of the possible options, take into account their influence, describe the possible states of the environment and evaluate the possible consequences of decisions depending on these states.

Decision options under risk are characterized by a spread of their possible consequences, while some of the consequences are more favorable than others. The decision maker is interested in the fact that as a result of the implementation of the decision, the ideal, from his point of view, the most favorable, of all its possible consequences, will come. Therefore, in the course of making a decision and implementing the decision made, the decision maker may provide Events, directing them to promote risk factors that lead to beneficial outcomes and counteract factors that have a negative impact.

Applied To economic systems activities are associated with certain resource costs, which should also be considered in the course of the decision.

Thus,

risk management called the development and implementation of measures aimed both at counteracting the negative impact of risk factors, and at using their positive impact on the final result.

Schematically, the process of managing the economic system in combination with risk management is shown in fig. 1.3.

Rice. 1.3. System management scheme considering risk management

On this diagram general management means system control based on existing control technology without taking into account risk factors. Risk factors affect the environment, the state of which affects the consequences of the decision being made, i.e. on the final result of managerial influence on the system. Risk management measures can be directed both to the system itself - in the form of additional control actions, and to the environment.

When influencing the system, a goal can be set make the system robust against certain state changes external environment. Measures aimed at changing the external environment may aim to counteract certain negative risk factors, or compensate for their impact on the environment.

An example of the impact on the environment in order to compensate for the negative manifestation of risk factors is insurance of the property of the enterprise against fire, natural disasters, etc. In this case, no changes occur at the enterprise itself, but if the risk factors are negative (the occurrence of an insured event), this manifestation is compensated by insurance payments. Risk management costs are the company's payments when concluding an insurance contract.

An example of risk management as additional control actions the creation of a significant stock of raw materials and component materials at an industrial enterprise can serve the system. In this case, during the execution of the production cycle, the enterprise acquires stability in relation to such risk factors as the irregularity in the supply of raw materials by supplier enterprises, the possibility of interruptions in transport, etc.

Thus, risk factors as such are not eliminated, but their influence on the final result of the production cycle is limited. The costs in this case will be the costs of warehousing and storage of stocks. In addition, the price of some component materials required at the end of the production cycle, but purchased in advance, may decrease during the considered time period. In this case, the price difference should also be understood as the cost of risk management.

Another example is the acquisition by large (mainly foreign) enterprises of patents in the field of such technologies, the use of which is possible only in the very distant future. At the same time, the management of enterprises is aware that many of the acquired patented developments may not be in demand at all, but if they are in demand, the enterprise will have a significant advantage over competitors. In this example, the actions of the enterprise are aimed at using the possibility of a positive manifestation of uncertainty factors.

Consider the main stages of decision-making under risk.

According to this scheme, risk analysis and direct risk management are carried out in several stages.

Stage 1. Statement of the problem of making a managerial decision. Determination of the target state of the control object.

Stage 2. Consideration of options for management actions (decisions), as a result of which the management object can be brought to the target state.

Stage 3. Identification of the composition of risk factors that can have a significant impact on the final state of the control object in conjunction with control actions.

Stage 4. Description of the conditions of the external environment that can be formed as a result of the manifestation of risk factors.

Stage 5. For each of the considered options for decisions - a description of the consequences of decisions, i.e. the final states of the control object, formed by control actions and the states of the environment.

Stage 6. Consideration of possible risk management measures, i.e. impacts on the control object or on the environment. The purpose of these activities is to counteract the negative impact of risk factors and promote their positive manifestation.

Stage 7. Evaluation of decision options taking into account risk management measures, their ordering by preference in terms of achieving the goals set. The final choice of solution based on this ordering.

Rice. 1.4. General statement of the problem of risk management

Let's consider the groups of the main tasks solved by risk managers in the course of managing the economic system under risk.

1. Identification of the main risk factors in the course of making and implementing a management decision, as well as a description of the consequences of their manifestation. Identification of risk factors is an important task, and according to some experts (possibly controversial), identifying and qualitatively characterizing an unaccounted risk factor is much more important than measuring the level of risk on the basis of certain indicators. That's why it is highly desirable for a risk manager to have an idea about "typical» the composition of risk factors related to the type of activity under consideration.

2. Development and (or) optimal choice methods for quantitative assessment of the consequences of the manifestation of risk factors. Here, the risk manager is required to possess the necessary mathematical tools, which include both methods for quantitative analysis of uncertainty and forecasting methods. Quantifying the consequences of the manifestation of risk factors is not an end in itself, but an economic necessity. The specificity of the manifestation of some risk factors may be, for example, such that the costs of risk management may exceed the amount of preventable losses, and therefore the implementation of measures aimed at counteracting these factors obviously does not make sense.

3. Identification of the main methods of counteracting the negative manifestation of risk factors and, if possible, methods of using their positive manifestation. Solving these problems requires not only knowledge of the subject area and general methods of risk management (insurance, diversification, hedging, etc.), but also legal knowledge, since a number of risk management methods are based on taking into account possible negative consequences(for example, force majeure) in the preparation and conclusion of contracts between counterparties.

4. Cost optimization for risk management. This consists in a new assessment of the consequences of the manifestation of risk factors, already taking into account possible risk management measures, assessing the costs of risk management and choosing the optimal set of measures - the maximum amount of preventable losses (or additional benefits obtained) at a given (or possibly minimal) cost of risk management . Based on modern requirements for taking into account risk factors in the course of managing economic systems, many authors believe that their analysis will be the more perfect, the more various risk management measures are recommended. It is necessary to count how expensive and effectivethesemeasures in terms of avoidable losses or additional benefits.

Concepts of risk minimization andacceptablerisk

Among the methods on the basis of which risk management is carried out, conceptually, three can be distinguished:

Risk minimization concepts;

Acceptable risk;

Risk as a resource.

The concept of risk minimization. The first group consists of methods based on the traditional approach to risk as a purely negative component of economic activity. These methods are aimed at reducing the level of risk to the lowest possible value. . It can be conditionally said that these methods are based on the concept of risk minimization. In all these methods, risk management measures are identified with a decrease in its level and it is assumed that they are the more effective, the lower the risk level is achieved as a result of them. As part of these methods, indicators of the level of risk corresponding to them are selected, for example, the probability of a negative outcome (probability of an undesirable event).

However, it is known that risk minimization is not a universally effective approach to making rational decisions under risk, even without taking into account the costs of risk reduction: simply choosing the least risky decisions often leads to low returns.

The most illustrative examples in this regard are the securities market. As a rule, high-yielding stocks are simultaneously characterized by a high level of risk. Low-risk and highly liquid securities, as a rule, do not provide high returns. This circumstance was once called the risk-return paradox. . The paradox is that the level of risk should not be increased, since the possibility of losses increases with the level of risk, on the other hand, with a decrease in the level of risk, the chances of obtaining high returns decrease.

If risk reduction is achieved not by simply choosing the least risky solution, but by taking special measures, then the ineffectiveness of risk minimization becomes even more obvious, since the costs of minimizing risk can exceed the amount of avoidable losses.

However, there are many situations where the level of risk should definitely be reduced to the lowest possible level. First of all, these are the risks of various catastrophic events. For example, the risk of an accident at a nuclear power plant must be minimized, regardless of cost.

On the other hand, just as there are practically no random events whose probability is zero, so it is practically impossible to reduce the level of risk to zero: and as a result of the most expensive measures, the probability of a nuclear reactor accident remains positive. We can only say that this probability will be below the significance level, i.e. will be so small that an accident can be considered an almost impossible event.

Thus, minimizing the level of risk can and should be considered as a goal in many situations, but this goal is practically unattainable; in fact, the level of risk can be reduced not to zero, but to some small value that can be considered acceptable.

The concept of acceptable risk. This concept was developed in due time due to the inefficiency of risk minimization as a universal method of management, including to resolve the "profitability-risk" contradiction. The term "acceptable risk" has been used in the scientific literature for a long time, The concept is based on the following provisions.

1. Economic risk is an objective property of the purposeful activity of an economic entity.

2. Economic risk is due to objective reasons: incomplete information about the past and present, as well as the uncertainty of the future.

3. The economic risk of a manufacturing enterprise operating in the market of resources, goods and services is always present to one degree or another, i.e. the level of economic risk is never zero.

4. Economic risk arises where a decision is made to choose one of the options for action.

5. Economic risk is manifested in the possibility of an undesirable development of events and deviations from the pursued goal of the economic activity of the enterprise.

6. An undesirable development of events and an undesirable deviation from the pursued economic goal are associated with losses (damage) for the economic entity.

7. The level of economic risk is a subjective characteristic; it reflects the amount of damage to the enterprise (according to its assessment) caused by an undesirable development of events due to the action (manifestation) of risk factors when making this economic decision.

8. The level of economic risk can be influenced, its value can be reduced, i.e. the level of economic risk can be controlled within certain limits.

9. It is necessary to distinguish between starting and final levels of risk, i.e. the final level of risk, which, according to calculations, will remain uncompensated after the development and adoption of special measures to reduce it.

10. There is a level of risk that the decision maker can name as acceptable for a given production enterprise in a given economic situation.

11. It is possible to reduce the level of economic risk to an acceptable value by spending some resources (material, financial, etc.) on anti-risk measures.

12. If the starting risk level of a certain management option is negligible, this may mean that this solution option does not bring novelty or significant advantages (benefits).

13. A greater level of risk, as a rule, is associated with the hope of greater success, but also with the danger of greater losses (damage).

14. The level of economic risk of an original, untested business idea is usually higher than for standard, typical, routine solutions. Conscious, rational actions (risk management) can sometimes reduce this level to an acceptable value.

15. The level of economic risk can be measured in different ways, for example, by assessing the material consequences of an undesirable course of events (UNS) resulting from the manifestation of a certain economic risk factor, and the degree of reality of one or another variant (direction) of the development of events.

Despite the fact that during the development of this concept, the object of application was the risk management process of a manufacturing enterprise, it can be applied to the management of any economic system, i.e. the concept of acceptable risk can be spoken of as one of the general concepts of risk management.

The concept of acceptable risk reflects the general principles of the theory of economic risk: risk is associated with the presence of alternatives in the choice of actions, the presence of risk is objectively due to the uncertainty of the consequences of the actions taken.

At the same time, the concept of acceptable risk contains a number of the following significant points that distinguish it from the general theory:

Risk management should be carried out on the basis of the separation of initial and final risk;

The level of risk should not be reduced to a minimum, but to an acceptable level;

Level of risk innovation activities tend to be higher than traditional activities.

Thus, the concept of acceptable risk is also aimed at reducing risk, but at the same time a rational approach is taken, i.e. the costs of anti-risk measures are compared with the size of possible losses and the measure of the possibility of consequences.

The main disadvantage of the concept of acceptable risk lies in the fact that it does not allow full use of the possibilities of positive realization of the risk, although this possibility is taken into account to a certain extent within the framework of the concept (provisions 12-13).

However, when calculating the level of risk within the framework of this concept, it is not supposed to take into account the size of the benefit and the measure of the reality of this benefit in the case of a positive realization of the risk. This follows from the above provisions, according to which the calculation of the level of risk is associated only with losses. Within the framework of the concept, we do not get an answer to the question of what qualitative property of risk provides the possibility of obtaining additional income as a result of making risky decisions.

Thus, in terms of the analysis of possible additional benefits associated with making risky decisions, the concept of acceptable risk needs further development.

One of possible ways such development is the concept of risk as a resource.

The most effective risk management in this case is to use the impact on the control object of the largest possible number of positive risk factors and reduce the impact of the largest possible number of negative factors.

Taking into account the principle of separation of the starting and final risk levels the use of the resource-like manifestation of risk is as follows. A solution option with an increased initial level of risk is selected, but at the same time, a high level of risk should be due, among other things, to a significant manifestation of positive factors. Reducing the starting level to the final value should be achieved mainly by suppressing the impact of negative factors. In this case, the increased starting risk level will be justified. The fact that most risky decisions not only do not lead to high incomes, but are also accompanied by significant losses, is explained by the fact that in such decisions a high level of risk is caused mainly by the manifestation of negative factors.

The concept of risk as a resource is the optimal principle for managing resource-like risks.

Allocate the main features of resource-like risk.

First and its main feature is that an increase in its level can lead to additional benefits, i.e. This risk is characterized by the presence of a composition of positive factors.

Second is that, as a rule, it is possible to avoid taking a resource-like risk (in contrast to catastrophic and attributive-negative risks): one can not participate in the lottery, not acquire high-risk securities, the bank may not expand the composition of borrowers by reducing the requirements for loan collateral, etc. Third- increasing its level is effective up to a certain limit, i.e. we are talking about the existence of some optimal level. A decision corresponding to the optimal level of risk is characterized by the fact that its results are already affected by all possible positive risk factors. A further increase in the level of risk will mean the involvement in the process of additional factors, the manifestation of which is exclusively negative, which is ineffective. Therefore, resource-like risk management should consist in maintaining its optimal level, which, in particular, implies the possibility of a conscious increase in this level. On the other hand, if the level of this risk is higher than optimal, it must be reduced.

Resource-like risk has the following characteristics:

An increase in the level of risk leads to a positive effect;

As a rule, it is possible to refuse to accept this risk;

An increase in the level of risk gives a positive effect up to a certain limit, after which a further increase in this level leads only to negative consequences;

Resource-like risk management consists in maintaining it at a certain optimal level.

In the field of financial management, resource-like manifestations of risk are associated with the concept speculative risk, which is called a risk, as a result of which, along with negative and zero, it is possible to obtain positive results (unexpected profit).

For most investment projects related to real investments, the risk of the project as a whole is characterized by a fairly wide range of positive factors. In particular, this applies to projects that have a significant innovative component, i.e. associated with the use of new production technologies or the production of new types of products, a new system for organizing production and marketing, etc. Such projects are characterized by an increased level of risk compared to investment decisions, the purpose of which is simply to compensate for the disposal of fixed production assets. During the implementation of such projects, the conscious acceptance by the investor of an increased level of risk occurs simultaneously with the decision to implement the project, i.e. positive risk factors are part of the factors that form the starting risk level of an investment project. From the standpoint of the concept of risk as a resource, the main content of the risk management of an investment project is to carry out activities aimed at suppressing the impact of negative risk factors. However, for many investment projects there are a number of components (separate subspecies) of the total risk of the project, which can be considered resource-like. First of all, innovation and marketing risk can be attributed here.

In fact, it is impossible to talk about the advantages of one of the concepts over the other in the general case. In a risky situation, where the losses - the possible consequences of the decision - in the event of a negative realization of the risk are so large that they are not comparable with the costs of anti-risk measures, the most effective are risk management methods based on the concept of risk minimization. For example, the risk of fire in the warehouse of finished products of a manufacturing enterprise should be minimized by taking all measures that, in principle, can reduce it: observing fire safety measures when storing products (checking the electrical wiring, instructing personnel, etc.), providing the warehouse with fire-fighting equipment ( security and fire alarms, access to fire hydrants, etc.). If the company has the ability to insure products in case of fire, this should also be done, since the losses in the event of a fire are not comparable with the costs of preventive measures.

Thus, risk minimization is the optimal management principle.catastrophic risks, i.e. such risks that are realized negatively, and the losses as a result of a negative outcome many times exceed the costs of possible measures to prevent these losses.

The concept of acceptable risk is optimal in relation toattributively negative risks, i.e. such, the manifestation of the factors of which leads only to negative, but not catastrophic consequences.

The mentioned concept of risk as a resource has a limited scope. The object of its application are the so-called resource-like risks. The main characteristic of resource-like risk is the possibility of obtaining additional benefits (or cost reduction) as a result of an increase in its level.

There are no projects without risks. Increasing the complexity of the project leads to an increase in the number and magnitude of associated risks. When we think about project management, we don't think much more about risk assessment, which is an intermediate step, but about how to develop a response plan to achieve risk reduction. Project risk management has its own specific features, which will be discussed in this article.

The concept of project risk

Under the risk in project activities, we mean a probable event, as a result of which the subject who made the decision loses the opportunity to achieve the planned results of the project or its individual parameters that have a temporal, quantitative and cost estimate. The risk is characterized by certain sources or causes and has consequences, i.e. affects the results of the project. keywords in the definition are:

• probability;
• event;
• subject;
• solution;
• losses.

Project risks are always associated with uncertainty. And in this regard, we should be concerned about two points: the degree of uncertainty and its causes. Uncertainty is proposed to be understood as the state of objective conditions in which the project is accepted for execution, which does not allow foreseeing the consequences of decisions due to the inaccuracy and incompleteness of the available information. The degree of uncertainty is significant because we are only able to manage those risks for which at least some meaningful information is available.

If there is no information, then such risks are called unknown, and for them it is necessary to lay a special reserve without implementing management procedures. For this situation, the example of the risk of a sudden change in tax legislation is quite suitable. For threats for which at least minimal information is available, a response plan can already be developed, and risk minimization becomes possible. The following is a small diagram of the boundaries of risk management from the standpoint of its certainty.

Scheme of the boundaries of risk management from a position of certainty

The next point for understanding the specifics of project risk is the dynamism of the risk map, which changes as the project task is implemented. Pay attention to the diagram below. At the beginning of the project, the probability of threats is high, but the potential losses are low. But by the end of all the work on the project, the amount of losses increases significantly, and the likelihood of threats decreases. Given this feature, two conclusions follow.

1. It is advisable to carry out risk analysis several times during the project implementation. In this case, the risk map is transformed.
2. Risk minimization most optimally occurs at the stage of concept development or at the time of development of project documentation. This option is much cheaper than at the stage of direct implementation.

Model of the dynamics of risk probability and the magnitude of losses

Consider small example. If at the very beginning of the project a threat to the quality of its product is identified due to an expensive material that is not suitable for specifications, then the costs associated with the correction will be negligible. A project plan change due to a material change will cause a slight delay. If possible negative consequences are revealed at the stage of order execution, the damage may be significant, and it will not be possible to achieve a reduction in losses.

Elements of the concept of project risk management

Modern project risk management methodology involves an active approach to dealing with the sources and consequences of identified threats and hazards, in contrast to the recent past, when the response was passive. Risk management should be understood as a set of interrelated processes based on the identification, analysis of risks, development of measures to reduce the level of negative consequences arising from the occurrence of risk events. PMBOK identifies six risk management processes. A visual diagram of the sequence of these processes is presented below.

PMBOK Project Risk Management Process Diagram

The main procedures of this type of management are:

• identification;
• grade;
• response planning;
• monitoring and control.

Identification implies the identification of risks based on the identified factors of their occurrence, the documentation of their parameters. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the causes of occurrence, the likelihood of negative consequences form the evaluation procedure. Planning for response to identified factors involves the development of measures to reduce the adverse impact on the results and parameters of the project. The project type of activity is characterized by dynamism, uniqueness of events and associated risks. Therefore, their monitoring and control occupy a special place in the management system and are carried out throughout the life cycle of the project task. Risk management provides the following.

1. Perception by project participants of uncertainties and threats in the environment of its implementation, their sources and probable negative events due to the manifestation of risks.
2. Search and expansion of opportunities for efficient and effective solution of the design problem, taking into account the identified uncertainty.
3. Development of ways to reduce project risks.
4. Refinement of project plans taking into account the identified risks and a set of measures to reduce them.

Project risks are managed by the project manager. All participants in the project task are involved in this work to varying degrees. The software and mathematical apparatus, methods of expert assessments, interviews, discussions, brainstorming, etc. are used. Before the start of management, an information context is formed, including the identification of external and internal conditions in which tasks will be solved. External conditions include political, economic, legal, social, technological, environmental, competitive and other aspects. Possible internal conditions consist of:

• the characteristics and objectives of the project itself;
• characteristics, structure and goals of the company;
• corporate standards and regulations;
• information about the resource support of the project.

Risk management planning

The first process among the overall design hazard procedures is risk management planning. It allows you to clarify the selected methods, tools and level of management organization in relation to a particular project. The PMI Institute assigns an important role to this process for the purposes of communication with all interested parties. Below is the planning process flow chart posted in the PMBOK Guide.

Risk Management Planning Data Flow Diagram. Source: PMBOK Handbook (Fifth Edition)

The risk management plan is a document that includes a specific set of sections. Consider an example of a detailed content of such a plan.

1. General provisions.
2. The main characteristics of the company.
3. Statutory characteristics of the project.
4. Goals, tasks of risk management.
5. Methodological section. The methodology includes methods, analysis and evaluation tools, sources of information that are recommended to be used to manage project risks. Methods and tools are painted according to .
6. Organization section. It includes the distribution of the roles of the project team members with the establishment of responsibility for the implementation of the procedures provided for by the plan, the composition of the relationship with other components of project management.
7. budget section. Rules for the formation and enforcement of the risk management budget are included.
8. Regulatory section, including the timing, frequency, duration of risk management operations, forms and composition of control documents.
9. Section of metrology (estimation and recalculation). Evaluation principles, parameter recalculation rules and reference scales are predetermined, serve aids qualitative and quantitative analysis.
10. Risk Thresholds. Taking into account the importance and novelty of the project implementation, the permissible values ​​of risk parameters at the level of the project and individual threats are established.
11. The reporting section is devoted to the issues of frequency, forms, procedure for filling out, submitting and reviewing reports on this block of project management.
12. Section of monitoring and documentation of project risk management.
13. Section of templates for risk management.

Identification of project risks

The next process of the considered control unit is the identification of risks. During its implementation, project risks are identified and documented. As a result, a list of risks should appear, ranked according to their degree of danger. The identification of factors should involve not only team members, but also all project participants. The PMBOK Guidelines describe this process as follows.

Extract from Section 11 of the PMBOK Guidelines.

Identification is based on the results of a study of all identified factors. At the same time, one should not forget that not all factors are identified and subject to management. During the development and refinement of project plans, new possible sources of threats and dangers often arise. The trend is that as a project moves towards completion, the number of likely risk events increases. Qualitative identification depends on the presence of a detailed one at hand. One of the useful classification features is the level of their controllability.

Classification of risks according to the level of controllability

The classification of project risks based on the sign of controllability is useful in determining under which uncontrollable factors reserves should be made. Unfortunately, the controllability of risks often does not guarantee success in managing them, so other ways of dividing are important. It is worth noting that there is no universal classification. This is due to the fact that all projects are unique and are accompanied by a lot of specific risks. In addition, it is often difficult to draw a line between similar types of risk.

Typical features of the classification are:

• sources;
• consequences;
• ways to reduce threats.

The first sign is actively used precisely at the stage of identification. The last two are useful when analyzing risk factors. Consider the types of project risks in connection with the uniqueness of their factors.

1. Specific threats from the perspective of a local project. For example, risks associated with a particular technology being introduced.
2. Specific threats from the position of the type of project implementation. Factors for construction, innovation, IT projects, etc. have specific features.
3. General risks for any projects. An example of a misalignment of plans or a low level of budget development can be given.

For identification, the literacy of the wording of the risk is important, the source, consequences and the risk itself should not be confused. The wording should be two-part and include an indication of the source due to which the risk arises, and the threatening event itself. For example, "the risk of disruption of funding due to mismatches in". As noted, the types of project risks are often divided according to the main sources. The following is an example of the most common version of such a classification.

Classification of project risks by sources

Analysis and assessment of project risks

Risk analysis and assessment are carried out in order to transform the information obtained during identification into information that allows making responsible decisions. During the qualitative analysis process, a number of expert assessments of possible adverse effects due to the identified factors are made. In the process of quantitative analysis, the values ​​of quantitative indicators of the probability of occurrence of threatening events are determined and specified. Quantitative analysis is much more laborious, but also more accurate. It requires the quality of input data, the use of advanced mathematical models and higher competence from the staff.

There are situations when qualitative analytical research is sufficient. As a result of the analytical work, the project manager intends to receive:

• a prioritized list of risks;
• a list of positions requiring additional analysis;
• assessment of the riskiness of the project as a whole.

There are expert estimates of the probability of occurrence of adverse events and the level of impact on the project. The main output of the qualitative analysis process is a list of ranked risks with completed assessments or a completed risk map. Both probabilities and influences are broken down into categorical groups within a given range of values. As a result of the assessments, various special matrices are built, in the cells of which the results of the product of the probability value and the impact level are placed. The results obtained are divided into segments, which serve as the basis for ranking threats. An example of such a likelihood/impact matrix can be found in the PMBOK Guidelines and is presented below.

An example of a probability and impact matrix.

In a broad sense, project implementation risks are the conditions or events that affect the outcome of the project. Such influences can be accompanied by a positive effect, "zero" or negative. In a narrower sense, project risks are defined as potentially adverse impacts that entail loss and damage, since the risk-related nature of uncertainty is seen as an element of unpredictable deterioration of the situation due to internal and external circumstances.

Possible risks of the project and response to them depend on the probability parameters, the magnitude of the risks, the significance of the consequences, risk tolerance, the availability of reserves (including management ones) in case of risk situations.

Project Risks: Glossary of Concepts

Project risks exhibit the effect of cumulative probabilities of events affecting the project. At the same time, the event itself can bring both benefit and damage, have a different degree of uncertainty, various causes and consequences (changes in labor costs, financial costs, failures of the action plan).

Uncertainty here is the state of objective factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the project, while the degree of influence does not allow to accurately predict the consequences of the decisions of the project participants due to inaccuracy or inaccessibility complete information. Therefore, it is possible to manage only that group of risks for which there is access to significant information.

The likelihood of a risk is the possibility of a threat occurring in the range from 0 to 100 percent. Extreme values ​​are not considered risks, since the zero limit means the impossibility of an event, and 100% guarantee must be provided in the project as a fact. An event that has a very a high degree probabilities (for example, guaranteed price increases by the supplier) are often generally taken out of consideration in the context of the topic of project risks. Probability is determined by two types of methods:

• objective, when the probability of a result obtained under similar conditions is calculated with statistical certainty based on the frequency of the event;
• subjective, based on the assumption of a possible continuation or outcome, and the assumption itself here is based on the understanding of the logic of the process by the decision maker and his experience, which the subject represents in numerical terms.

If there is not enough information about potential costs (for example, after the launch of the project there was an unexpected change in tax legislation), then a special reserve is laid down for such unknown risks, and management procedures are not implemented. The reserve for unforeseen events can be expressed in terms of both additional amount and additional time, and should be included in the project cost baseline.

If changes can be judged in advance, then a response plan is built to minimize risks. As a rule, the boundaries of risk management partially capture the information field for which there is no information (complete uncertainty), and partially the field with complete certainty, for which there is comprehensive information. Within these boundaries are known and unknown factors that make up the general and specific uncertainty.

Since there is a decision maker in projects, the concept of risk can be associated with its activities. The probability here is the magnitude of the possibility that, as a result of the decision, an undesirable outcome associated with losses will follow.

In addition to internal factors, the project is also affected by external factors.

with different uncertainties and with varying degrees of tolerance to them by project participants and investors. Tolerance is defined here as the degree of readiness for the possible implementation of threats. Often - especially in the case of low probability and low risk measure - project participants consciously accept the risk, transferring efforts no longer to preventing the threat, but to eliminating its consequences. Acceptance refers to one of the four main types of response to a potential threat.

The degree of risk tolerance depends on the volume and reliability of investments, the planned level of profitability, the familiarity of the project for the company, the complexity of the business model, and other factors. The more complex the business model, the more thorough and detailed the risk assessment should be. At the same time, the typicality of the project for the company is considered a higher priority factor in assessing the riskiness than the amount of invested funds. For example, construction retail store included in the retail network can become a high-budget project, however, if the implementation uses already proven and well-known technologies, then the risks will be lower than when implementing a less expensive, but new project. If, for example, the same company refocuses or expands its activities and decides to open a restaurant, it will face a different level of risk, since everything will be unfamiliar to retailers here: from the principle of choosing a place and forming a competitive price, and ending with the development of a recognizable concept and a new supply chain .

As you move from solving one problem of the project to solving another problem, the types of risks may also change. As a result, it is advisable to analyze the risks of an investment project several times during the project, transforming, as necessary, the risk map. However, during the initial stages of project implementation (during conception and design), this is of particular importance, since early identification and readiness significantly reduces losses.

The sequence of activities for assessing and managing project risks is represented by the management concept, which includes the following elements:

1. Risk management planning.
2. Risk identification.
3. Qualitative analysis.
4. Quantification.
5. Response planning.
6. Tracking and control of risk map changes.

Risk management involves first understanding by project participants the uncertainties in the project implementation environment, then expanding opportunities that increase the likelihood of achieving the planned result, and finally finalizing project plans that include risk mitigation measures.

Stages of risk management

Within the framework of the PMBoK framework, popular in project management, PMI distinguishes 6 progressive and interrelated stages of risk management:

Risk management planning

During planning, the strategy for organizing the process is determined, the rules of interaction are determined. Planning happens through:

• formation of a management environment by popularizing the process for project participants, and harmonizing their relationships,
• engagement ready-made templates, standards, schemes, customary management formats in a given company,
• creating a description of the content of the project.

At the same time, the meeting becomes the main process-tool, in which members of the project team, managers, leaders, persons responsible for the use of investments (if the risks of the investment project are planned) take part. The result of planning is a document in which, in addition to general provisions, the following should be entered:

• risk management methods and tools by implementation stages,
• distribution of the roles of project participants in the event of a risk situation and the implementation of the threat,
• acceptable ranges and threshold values ​​of risks,
• recalculation principles, if the risks of investment projects change during the project,
• rules and formats for reporting and documentation,
• monitoring formats.

In general, the output should be an understandable algorithm for everyone in case of occurrence and implementation of threats.

Identification

Risk identification takes place regularly, since during the course of the project, threats can undergo qualitative and quantitative changes. Identification is more effective when there is a detailed classification of risks relevant to a typical project. If the company is working on new, unfamiliar projects, the classification should be as broad as possible so that no risks are overlooked.

Since there is no exhaustive classification of risks, more convenient formats for a particular project are most often used. So universal and popular are classifications according to the criterion of controllability of risks, which describe the level of control with the division of threats into external and internal. External unpredictable and uncontrollable risks, for example, include political risks, natural disasters, and sabotage. To spring partially controlled and predictable - social, marketing, currency and inflation. To internal controllable - risks associated with technology and design, etc. But in general it is more expedient to create topical groups for a specific project, especially if it is not typical for the company.

To do this, all possible expert opinions are involved, the widest possible range of information is used, all known methods are used, starting with brainstorming and Crawford cards and ending with the analogy method and the use of diagrams. The result should be an exhaustive hierarchical list of risks with their two-part description “threat source + threatening event”, for example: “the risk of disruption of financing due to the termination of investments”.

Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment

More time-consuming, but also more accurate - quantitative analysis. It shows the percentage probability of the realization of risks and their consequences in numerical values. Thanks to him, you can see how the profitability of the project will change when quantitative change one or another parameter from the list of risks critical for this project. When substituting algorithms into the current model of the project, thanks to quantitative analysis, it is easy to understand at what values ​​the project will become unprofitable and which risk factors affect this more than others.

Sometimes a qualitative analysis, done with the involvement of experts and making an informed value judgment, is enough to map the likelihood of a risk and the degree of its impact on the project. At the output after the analytical part, a ranked list should be formed:

• with prioritized risks,
• with positions that require clarification,
• with an assessment of the riskiness of the project as a whole.

Such a result can be visually presented in the form of a risk matrix, which includes not only threats, but also favorable opportunities created by the uncertainty of the situation.

The more complex the project, the more carefully the assessment must be carried out, and then quantitative analysis methods are indispensable. Among the most popular methods are:

• probabilistic analysis based on the principles of probability theory and statistical data of previous periods,
• sensitivity analysis based on changes in results due to changes in the values ​​of given variables,
• analysis of scenarios with the development of options for the development of projects in comparison,
• simulation modeling ("Monte Carlo"), involving multiple experiments with the project model, etc.

For some of them (for example, for the simulation method), it is necessary to use special software, since it is necessary to process a large array random numbers, imitating the "unpredictable" state of the market.

Planning how to respond

When choosing response methods, they are guided by 4 main types of strategy:

• Evasion (avoidance) - elimination of sources of risk.
• Insurance (transfer) - the involvement of a third party that takes the risks.
• Minimization (reduction) is a decrease in the probability of a threat being realized.
• Acceptance - the passive form implies a conscious readiness for the threat, and active form- agreeing on a plan of action in the event of unforeseen, but acceptable circumstances.

Each method can be used for its type of risk as optimal.

Monitoring and control

Control and management activities need to be carried out throughout the project. The onset of an unforeseen risk event in the final stages threatens with greater losses than in the initial stages.

In the course of monitoring, the values ​​of already identified risks are revised and sometimes new ones are identified. In addition, deviations and trends are analyzed, as well as the state of the reserves necessary to cover the remaining risks.

Identification of economic risks in enterprises: traditional and innovative projects

All risks are grouped by type, but for each project manager or head of the system analysis and risk management unit, there are groups of the most serious threats, formed on the basis of practice and previous experience in the context of the activity. For example, production managers most often identify risks associated with:

• with accidents and incidents
• with property issues that harm the main fund of the enterprise,
• with questions of pricing for finished products and prices for raw materials,
• with market transformations (changes in stock indices, exchange rates and the value of securities),
• with the actions of fraudsters and theft at work.

The manager of a trade enterprise, as a rule, adds to the list of the main ones:

• logistical risks,
• mediation issues,
• risks associated with the actions of dishonest suppliers,
• the danger of receivables from wholesalers (primarily when payment is made with a deferred payment).

At a competitive and organized enterprise, which has already repeatedly implemented typical projects for itself, a list of characteristic risks and factors provoking them is very quickly formed. The value of such lists lies in the fact that not only the content of the issue has been worked out, but also the form: the description of the risk receives a clear, unambiguous formulation, perfected by previous projects, which simplifies the consideration and format of the response. In addition to the lists, it is advisable to form a visual table with coordinates according to the parameters of risk probability and possible damage. In such a table, it is more convenient to track the dynamics of risk changes.

Traditional designs

Since the risks are similar for traditional projects under certain conditions, they can be standardized and grouped.

No. 1. Group of risks related to product consumption

Among the reasons that create risks from this group, we can distinguish:

1. The presence of a monopoly consumer in the market, as a result of which:
   • unable to influence prices
   • increased financial costs for maintaining reserves in warehouses,
   • disadvantageous clauses are introduced in contracts (for example, long-term deferrals of payments).
2. Market capacity, which turns out to be less than the total capacity of industry enterprises. This, for example, happened in the post-perestroika period, when the construction of panel-type houses dropped sharply, and the demand for reinforced concrete slabs became less than the capabilities of the enterprises producing them.
3. Loss of product relevance. An example of the realization of this risk was the loss of relevance of one electronic media after another (first - floppy disks, then - CDs, etc.).
4. Change in production technology. This threat is relevant in the B2B market, when, when changing production technology, it is necessary to change the entire scheme of interaction between enterprises that were previously in the production chain.

The risks of this group can be minimized by monitoring the market, changing the sales system and by developing new niches.

No. 2. Group of risks associated with market competition

Risks from the second group are classified as follows:

1. Situations that threaten the financial situation due to a significant share of gray imports on the market, in connection with which there is:
   • dumping of prices by those sellers who smuggle goods in,
   • decrease in consumer loyalty, which is provoked by the low quality of counterfeit products, casting a shadow on all products of this kind.
2. Large secondary market creating:
   • reputational risks as a result of an attempt to pass off a used item as a new one,
   • the threat of underutilization of production (an example is the secondary market for drill pipes, which takes away a share from an enterprise producing pipes for the primary market).
3. Low market entry threshold, which easily increases competition and affects pricing, adding to the reputational threat that products can be easily counterfeited.

Risks from this group can be minimized by trying to lobby for the introduction/abolition of duties at the legislative level, by labeling your products using multiple degrees of protection, by changing the market or distribution networks, by expanding activities through a new niche (for example, by introducing after-sales service their products).

No. 3. Group of risks associated with the commodity market

In this group, the enterprise may suffer from the following factors:

1. The presence of a monopoly supplier that is able to inflate the price of raw materials and arbitrarily change the terms of the contract. Among other things, this makes it necessary to maintain a large stock of raw materials in warehouses, which increases the financing of the project.
2. Shortage of raw materials, leading to higher prices and downtime of production facilities.

In the presence of a raw material monopolist, risks are minimized by searching for similar raw materials, reorienting to dealers of the main supplier, and creating a strategic mutually beneficial alliance with the monopolist. With a shortage of raw materials, it is effective to minimize risks by creating our own raw material base. In addition, if the shortage occurs due to the departure of raw materials to the market with higher prices, it is possible to repurchase raw materials at the same prices from the supplier, but at the same time, it will probably be necessary to increase the selling price of finished products.

No. 4. Group of risks associated with the organization and conduct of business

Here it may occur whole line threats, but in practice, most often, two are implemented:

1. The actual scheme for the sale of goods differs from the planned one, which is due to:
   • lack of control over dealers and their pricing,
   • insufficient payment discipline,
   • overstocking due to price imbalance,
   • logistic errors.
2. The division of the business chain between different independent companies. Each of them can find another partner. For example, a manufacturing company working in conjunction with a selling company may lose the opportunity to sell products if the selling company finds a more “interesting” manufacturer (supplier).

Here, the dangers are reduced by creating their own implementation units or by looking for new partners.

The specifics of the risks of innovative projects

ABOUT high level risk in innovation activity is shown by the following statistics: out of a hundred venture capital firms, 10-20% avoid bankruptcy. But high risks are accompanied by a high rate of return for innovative projects, which is usually much higher than traditional types of profit. entrepreneurial activity. This fact stimulates innovation and activates the innovation sphere.

There are dependencies in innovative projects: the more localized the project, the higher the risks. If there are several projects, and they are dispersed in terms of industry, then the probability of success of innovative entrepreneurship increases. And the profit from a successful project covers the costs of failed development.

In general, risks in innovative entrepreneurship arise from the creation of new products, services and technologies that are more likely to fail to gain the expected popularity, and managerial innovations will not bring the expected effect.

Innovation risks may arise in the following situations:

1. When the introduction of a cheaper method of production (or services) loses its technological uniqueness.
2. When a new product is created using old equipment that cannot provide the required level of quality of a product or service.
3. When the relevance of demand decreases (for example, fashion passes).

Based on this, the following threats are typical for innovative entrepreneurship:

• wrong choice of project,
• failure to provide the project with sufficient funding,
• non-fulfillment of business contracts due to the specific complexity of the innovation,
• unforeseen costs for improving the "raw" product,
• personnel problems associated with the lack of competence to implement innovations,
• loss of uniqueness and status of "special technology",
• violations of property rights,
• the whole complex of marketing risks.

The legislation of the Russian Federation provides for the concept of entrepreneurial risk, which makes it possible to apply risk reduction methods to innovative entrepreneurial projects: to insure risks, prudently reserve funds, and diversify the project.

• Risk insurance. If the participant himself cannot guarantee the implementation of the project, then he transfers certain risks to the insurance company. Abroad, full insurance is used when it comes to investment projects. Russian insurance practice allows for the time being to insure individual components of the project (equipment, personnel, real estate, etc.).
• Reservation of funds. It establishes the relationship between potential risks that affect the cost of the project, and the amount of funds needed to overcome violations. The reserve value must be equal to or greater than the swing value. In Russian practice, for example, the costs for the duration of work by Russian contractors assume an addition of 20% of the costs.
• Diversification. Distribution of risks between project participants.

Minimizing risks inevitably increases project costs, but at the same time increases project profits.

Investment projects, by definition, refer to the future, which the analyst cannot predict with certainty. Therefore, the analysis of the project should be carried out taking into account risk and uncertainty.

Uncertainty is understood as the incompleteness and inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project, including the costs and results associated with them.

The uncertainty associated with the possibility of adverse situations and consequences arising during the implementation of the project is characterized by the concept of risk.

Risk classification:

1 External unpredictable risks:

1.1 Unexpected government regulation;

1.2 Natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, storms;

1.3 Crimes: vandalism, sabotage, terrorism, racketeering;

1.4 Unpredictable externalities: environmental, social;

1.5 Failures: in financing, due to the bankruptcy of contractors, due to errors in setting project goals.

2 External predictable risks:

2.1 Market risks;

2.2 Operational risks;

2.3 Unacceptable environmental impacts;

2.4. Negative social consequences;

2.5. Changes in exchange rates;

2.6. Off-set inflation;

2.7. Taxation.

3. Internal technical risks:

3.1 Disruptions to work plans;

3.2 Cost overruns;

4. Technical risks:

4.1. Technology change;

4.2 Deterioration in the quality and productivity of production;

4.3 Errors in the preparation of documentation.

5 Legal risks:

5.1 Lack of patents, licenses, failure to fulfill contracts;

5.2 Trials with partners not participating in the project;

5.3 Other extraordinary circumstances.

6 Insured risks.

In connection with the foregoing, one of the main tasks during the implementation of the investment project at AOZT "Shveya" is to compile a list of the most significant, and, first of all, uncertain risks (Table 12)

Table 12 - List of risks during the implementation of the project at CJSC "Shveya"

Project risks	Negative impact on earnings
Financial and economic risks
Volatility in demand for products	Falling demand due to rising prices
Tax increase	Decrease in net profit
Increase in production from competitors in the domestic and foreign markets	Decrease in sales volumes or price reduction
insolvency of consumers in the domestic market	Decline in sales volumes, decrease in profits
Rising prices for raw materials and materials	Decline in profits due to rising prices
Technical risks
The instability of the quality of raw materials and materials	Decreased production volumes due to equipment changeovers, reduced quality

Risk management methods in project implementation

Risk management is the processes associated with the identification, analysis of risks and decision-making, which include maximizing the positive and minimizing the negative consequences of the occurrence of risk events. The project risk management process typically includes the following procedures:

Risk management planning - selection of approaches and planning activities for project risk management.

Risk identification - identification of risks that can affect the project, and documentation of their characteristics.

Qualitative risk assessment - a qualitative analysis of risks and the conditions for their occurrence in order to determine their impact on the success of the project.

Quantification - a quantitative analysis of the likelihood of occurrence and the impact of the consequences of risks on the project.

Risk response planning - determination of procedures and methods to mitigate the negative consequences of risk events and use the possible benefits.

Risk monitoring and control - monitoring risks, identifying remaining risks, implementing the project's risk management plan, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions.

All these procedures interact with each other, as well as with other procedures. Each procedure is performed at least once in every project.

1 Risk management planning.

Risk Management Planning - The decision-making process for applying and planning risk management for a specific project. This process may include decisions on organization, staffing of project risk management procedures, selection of preferred methodology, data sources for risk identification, time frame for situation analysis. It is important to plan risk management adequate to both the level and type of risk and the importance of the project to the organization.

2 Risk identification.

Risk identification determines which risks are likely to affect the project and documents the characteristics of those risks. Risk identification will not be effective if it is not carried out regularly throughout the life of the project.

Risk identification should involve as many participants as possible: project managers, customers, users, independent specialists.

3 Qualitative risk assessment.

Qualitative risk assessment - the process of providing a qualitative analysis of the identification of risks and the identification of risks that require a rapid response. This risk assessment determines the importance of the risk and chooses how to respond. The availability of accompanying information makes it easier to prioritize different risk categories.

A qualitative risk assessment is an assessment of the conditions for the occurrence of risks and the determination of their impact on the project by standard methods and means.

The use of these tools helps to partially avoid the uncertainty that often occurs in the project. During the life cycle of the project, there should be a constant reassessment of risks.

4 Quantitative risk assessment.

Quantitative risk assessment determines the probability of occurrence of risks and the impact of the consequences of risks on the project, which helps the project management team to make correct decisions and avoid uncertainties. Quantitative risk assessment allows you to determine:

Probability of achieving the final goal of the project;

The degree of impact of the risk on the project and the amount of unforeseen costs and materials that may be needed;

Risks requiring prompt response and greater attention, as well as the impact of their consequences on the project;

Actual costs, estimated completion dates.

Quantitative risk assessment often accompanies qualitative assessment and also requires a risk identification process. Quantitative and quantitative risk assessment can be used separately or together, depending on the time and budget available, the need for quantitative or qualitative risk assessment.

5 Risk response planning.

Risk response planning is the development of methods and technologies to reduce the negative impact of risks on a project. Takes responsibility for the effectiveness of protecting the project from exposure to risks. Planning includes identifying and categorizing each risk. The effectiveness of the response design will directly determine whether the impact of the risk on the project will be positive or negative.

The response planning strategy should be appropriate to the types of risks, cost-effectiveness of resources and timescales. The issues discussed during the meetings should be adequate to the tasks at each stage of the project, and agreed with all members of the project management team. Typically, several options for risk response strategies are required.

Monitoring and control

Monitoring and control follows the identification of risks, determines residual risks, ensures the implementation of the risk plan and evaluates its effectiveness, taking into account risk reduction. Indicators of risks associated with the implementation of the conditions for the implementation of the plan are recorded. Monitoring and control accompanies the process of project implementation.

Quality control of project execution provides information that helps to make effective decisions to prevent the occurrence of risks. Communication between all project managers is necessary to provide complete information about project implementation.

The purpose of monitoring and control is to find out whether:

The risk response system has been implemented in accordance with the plan;

Is the response effective enough or changes are needed;

Risks have changed from the previous value;

The onset of the impact of risks;

The necessary measures have been taken;

The impact of the risks turned out to be planned or was an accidental result.

Control may entail the selection of alternative strategies, the adoption of adjustments, the re-planning of the project to achieve the baseline. There should be constant interaction between project managers and the risk group, all changes and phenomena should be recorded. Project progress reports should be generated regularly.

Let us describe the method of quantitative analysis of managerial risk.

Project finance management has a different purpose than accounting and is a cost projection, while accounting always looks at the costs already incurred.

The presence of risk in the process of the subject's activity as a mandatory attribute is an objective economic law. In conditions market economy it is impossible to manage a project without taking into account the impact of risk, and for effective management it is necessary not only to be aware of its presence, but also to correctly identify a specific risk.

Risk management is such a process of influencing a business entity, which ensures the widest possible range of possible risks, their reasonable acceptance and reduction of the degree of their impact on the business entity to the minimum possible limits, as well as the development of a strategy for the behavior of this entity in the event of the implementation of specific types risks.

Basic principles of the risk management process:

1. The principle of maximization, which provides for the desire for the most complete coverage of possible areas of risk occurrence, that is, this principle causes the degree of uncertainty to be reduced to a minimum.

2. The principle of minimization - means that the manager seeks to minimize, firstly, the degree of their influence on the project.

3. The principle of the adequacy of the response is that the project team must adequately and quickly respond to all changes that are expressed in the realization of the risk and the possibility of its occurrence, that is, in those cases when it becomes a reality.

4. The principle of acceptance - only when the risk is justified, the manager can accept it.

For the risk management process, it is necessary for managers to predict the emergence of certain problems and corresponding situations. A forecast is understood as a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and terms of its existence. Forecasting management decisions is most closely related to planning.

Based on their practical significance of the risk management process, we determine the sequence of stages of this process:

The information and analytical stage makes it possible to assess the occurrence of the entire set of risks, regardless of whether the management apparatus can or not influence them in case of implementation.

Identification stage - all parameters of possible risks are set, taking into account the specifics of management activities and project specialization.

Stages complex analysis- a complete risk analysis is made with the calculation of its level and degree of impact on the project.

Risk reduction - action planning. There is a search for ways of timely and high-quality protection against risk and the development of a specific mechanism for their implementation. Action planning, both for prevention and in case of risk realization.

Control of a possible or emerging situation. Having done all of the above, it is necessary to control the situation in order to respond at a certain stage

Implementation of the action program in case of risk.

Analysis, generalization, conclusions and proposals for the future.

There are the following risk assessment methods:

1. Assessment of the importance of the risk.

2. Statistical method of risk assessment.

3. Analysis of sustainability (sensitivity) of the project.

4. Method of private risks.