Theoretical foundations of risk accounting in the strategic management of enterprise development. Measurement of risks in the process of strategic management
In the process of measuring risks for the purposes of strategic management, it is necessary to use such an indicator as the level of risk. This indicator for each specific strategy should be determined at the stage of goal setting. This level can be set by a set of evaluation criteria and their deviation limits. The strategy is considered implemented if predetermined deviations from the evaluation criteria are achieved. The mechanism for measuring these deviations is complex and ambiguous in application, but in strategic management it is important to determine the variant of such a measurement that would best take into account possible factors of influence and the magnitude of their impact on deviations from the achievement of the set estimated indicators. For the purposes of risk measurement, it is necessary to first investigate all possible risks, identify them and classify them. In this regard, the classification of risks is of utmost importance.
The risks that must be taken into account when substantiating and developing an organization's development strategy are divided according to the scale of their impact:
catastrophic;
· critical;
significant;
moderate;
· minor.
In the process of making strategic decisions, it is necessary to take into account the different degree of sensitivity to risks of different groups of stakeholders. In accordance with this, the following types of risks can be distinguished:
ü admissible;
ü acceptable;
o Invalid.
Further risks can be subdivided:
ü on a systematic;
ü unsystematic.
And they can be:
ü predictable and unpredictable;
ü obvious and hidden;
ü measurable and immeasurable;
ü predictable and unpredictable;
ü direct and indirect.
In the process of strategic analysis and goal setting, an organization can bear risks that are divided into two groups:
1 group. Macro environment risks:
macroeconomic risks of the distant environment;
risks of the immediate environment.
internal risks.
1 group. Macroeconomic Risks of the Far Environment can be subdivided into the following types:
1) political;
2) economic (financial);
3) environmental;
4) production;
5) risks associated with the occurrence of unforeseen force majeure circumstances.
1) Political risk is the risk that arises as a result of a change in public policy. It, from the point of view of the assets of the organization, takes into account the decrease in the profitability of the predicted event due to changes in the economic policy of the state. Political risks include the risks of adverse socio-political changes in the country, as well as the risks of business security in the country (vandalism, unemployment, terrorism, sabotage, etc.).
2) Economic (financial) risk takes into account state regulation in the field of taxation, pricing of natural monopolies, land use, rent standards, export-import, foreign economic activity. This is the risk of loss (change) of the predicted result due to inflation, changes in the convertibility of the national currency, changes in state regulation of the banking and financial system, etc.
3) Production risks- these are those related to state regulation of the development of specific industries, enterprises or regions, the possibility of state policy to support their own manufacturer or the creation of conditions for a possible invasion of the domestic market of a foreign manufacturer.
4) Environmental risks- these are direct threats to the external business environment, since environmental protection activities are regulated by the state. Unexpected measures of state regulation in the field of environmental protection can significantly affect the deviation from the predicted result.
5) Risks associated with unforeseen force majeure circumstances. Such risks include natural disasters. It should be noted that the above classification of risks in the external business environment is not exhaustive. Unforeseen changes in any of the parameters listed above represent a threat or uncertainty in achieving the desired outcome.
To the risks of the microenvironment The following types of risks should be considered:
1) production;
2) scientific and technical;
3) socio-economic.
1) Production risk microenvironment is associated with a possible loss of production capacity due to changing market needs or a decrease in the quality of the product. It is accompanied by a decrease in production volumes due to the growth of production costs, irrational organization of production and marketing. Production risk also includes the risk of loss competitive advantage organizations.
2) Scientific and technical risk allows the loss of the competitive advantage of the enterprise, caused by a decrease (moral or physical) performance of the main technological equipment, including its complete stop.
Scientific and technical risks also include risks of obsolescence of fixed assets and technologies, investment risks, reconstruction risks, risks of the emergence of new technologies or activities, etc.
This risk group should include the risk of developing new, more economical technologies for the production of the product. The organization's lag behind its main competitors in scientific and technical terms increases the risk of falling production volumes, reduces the competitiveness of manufactured products, and increases the risk of losing the product sales market.
3) Socio-economic risks microenvironments are the risks of an unfavorable social climate of an organization, bankruptcy, pricing policy, unprofitable organization, takeover of one enterprise by another by using its monopoly advantage in the sales market or by acquiring shares, etc.
2. Internal risks can be initially divided into objective and subjective.
TO subjective internal risks the risks of making managerial decisions at all stages of planning and implementing the strategy should be attributed (in particular, the risks of erroneously chosen goals, incorrect allocation of SZH, a gap in strategic, tactical and operational planning, violation of the hierarchy of subordination of goals and plan, etc.).
TO objective internal risks include risks associated with various activities of the organization. The following types of risks are distinguished.
1) Environmental risks arise as a result of violation of laws on environmental protection, in view of the lack of licenses and permits, a decrease in the efficiency of treatment facilities, etc. Organizations include natural disasters and the risk of floods, fires, and others as environmental risks.
2) Legal risks of the organization- these are the risks caused by the lack of licenses to carry out activities that provide for its existence, non-compliance with patent law, the emergence of litigation with external clients, failure to fulfill contractual obligations, etc.
3) Personnel risks include risks:
insufficiently qualified personnel management and employee motivation;
· inefficient system of remuneration;
Loss of highly professional personnel;
Decrease in labor productivity;
loss of working time for various reasons.
4) Risks of circumstances, force majeure for the organization is unpredictable changes in the conditions of economic activity, as well as specific risks in violation of technology and safety.
5) Economic risks include risks: loss of profitability of the organization, reduction in prices for the sale of products, changes in market conditions for the main raw materials and energy carriers.
Economic risks should also include the risks of losing the organization's assets, reducing liquidity and financial stability organizations, reducing the amount of own funds and increasing the amount of borrowed capital.
6) Marketing risks associated with the loss of markets for products, with changing consumer requirements, with an inefficient portfolio of orders, changes in consumer demand, etc. Marketing risk also includes risks from unsatisfactory advertising, the emergence of new competitors or the appearance of substitute products, an incorrect assortment policy and incorrect chosen pricing policy.
7) Financial risks- these are the risks of a reduction in cash flow, inflation, an increase in refinancing rates, changes in the taxation system, rising energy prices, loss of financial resources to service the debts of natural monopolists.
The above classification of risks is rather conditional, since it is difficult to determine clear boundaries between different types of risks. All of them are interconnected, changing and complementing each other both in the direction of strengthening the impact of risk factors, and in the direction of weakening such an impact.
Federal Agency for Education
Belgorodstate technological university
named after V.G. Shukhov
departmentstrategic management
by discipline: "Strategic Management»
On the topic of:
Done: studentgr.EK-431
Zubritskaya E.A.
checked: Sazonov D.G.
Belgorod2006 .
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..3
History of risk management……………………………………………..6
The concept and classification of strategic risks…………………………....13
Risk assessment methods……………………………………………………….....18
Risk Mitigation Measures……………………………………………………..…..22
Forecast of strategic risks in Russia……………………………………..32
Conclusion……………………………………………………………………....39
Practical part……………………………………………………………...41
List of used literature…………………………………………..48
Introduction
Every new enterprise or new project inevitably faces certain difficulties along its way that threaten its existence. It is very important for an entrepreneur to be able to anticipate such difficulties and develop strategies in advance to overcome them. It is necessary to assess the degree of risk and identify the problems that the business may face.
Success in the business world depends decisively on the correctness and validity of the chosen business strategy. In this case, the probabilities of critical situations should be taken into account. It would be highly naive to think that entrepreneurial activity without risk is possible.
The threat may come from competitors, from their own miscalculations in the field of marketing and production policy, and mistakes in the selection of management personnel. Danger can also represent a technical process that can instantly "age" any new product.
For any business, it is important not to avoid risk at all, but to anticipate and reduce it to a minimum level.
To reduce losses from possible miscalculations, special procedures are provided to help take into account uncertainties and risks at all stages of project implementation.
Knowing the types and significance of risks, it is possible to influence them by reducing their impact on the effectiveness of the project. In other words, the expert faces the following tasks: identifying risks; risk assessment; determining how to reduce risk at each stage of the project; organization of work on risk management.
The problem of risk management is very relevant. The activity of any organization is associated with the risk of unforeseen losses. That is why it is important for each company to provide for changes in factors and conditions that can have a significant impact on its functioning.
Risk can be managed. The most successful will be the activity of a company that correctly calculated its capabilities, choosing a direction of activity with an optimal ratio of risk and profitability.
As business exposure to financial risk increases, many companies recognize that finding solutions to risk problems must be professionalized. The manager must ensure that all assets and profits of the firm are protected from losses due to changes and fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, and manage interest costs. Only a sufficiently experienced and qualified manager will cope with this difficult task. It seems to me that risk management should become one of the main activities of a modern manager.
The relevance of this work lies in the fact that many conditions and factors affect the outcome of decisions made by people, the effect of some of them is very difficult to predict, many decisions in entrepreneurial activity have to be made under conditions of uncertainty. Risk is inherent in almost every area of human activity. Now more and more attention is paid to research, forecasting, risk analysis. The ability to foresee the consequences of certain actions is simply necessary for the normal functioning of organizations.
The purpose of this work is to define the concept of risk management, its impact on the activities of risky enterprises, a description of methods for assessing, analyzing risk and ways to reduce it. In general, the issues necessary for effective risk management will be considered.
In accordance with this goal of the work, the following tasks are set:
Consider the history of the development of risk management;
To study the concept and classification of strategic risks;
Consider risk assessment methods and risk mitigation measures.
The information base for writing the work was: educational and periodical literature and Internet resources.
1. History of risk management development
Modern problems and development trends of risk management in Lately are increasingly attracting the attention of domestic researchers and entrepreneurs. Like their Western counterparts, Russian scientists, researchers and entrepreneurs face numerous risks associated with market movements in stock prices, currencies, commodities, and so on. The liberalization of the national economy, as well as an increase in the degree of openness, contributes to the tightening of competition, causing additional difficulties for business entities.
The formation of risk management as a new paradigm of strategic management in modern business dates back to the mid-90s. Advanced technologies, the globalization of the world economy, deregulation, restructuring, the Internet, the development of the derivatives market, information technology development and other important factors affecting modern business have radically changed approaches to risk management. Until the 1990s, risk management was carried out only at the level of individuals.
Until recently, a highly specialized, fragmented bottom-up approach to risk management has been used, which has treated all emerging risks as separate, unrelated elements. At the same time, their assessments were of a heterogeneous nature, which made it impossible to compare them with each other and analyze the results obtained.
Over the past years, the views and approaches to the existing problems in the field of risk management have changed, which immediately led to the formation of a new risk management model that comprehensively considers the risks of all departments and activities of the organization. It became possible to obtain comparable estimates for all types of risk due to the optimal approach between methods and models for determining specific types of risks.
Many experts believe that risk management should become an integral part of every successful enterprise, therefore, it should include:
identification, analysis and assessment of risks;
development of a program of measures to eliminate the consequences of risk situations;
development of mechanisms for the survival of the enterprise;
maintaining the goals of the enterprise;
cost reduction;
creation of an insurance system;
forecasting the development of the enterprise, taking into account possible changes in the market situation and other measures.
The leaders of most organizations traditionally consider risk management to be a specialized and separate activity. For example, this concerns the management of insurance or currency risks. The new approach is to orient employees and managers at all levels to risk management. In table. 1.1. the main features of the new and old paradigms of risk management are presented. As shown in Table. 1.1., Previously, enterprises used the risk management system, fragmented, sporadically and in a limited direction. New trends in the economy are forcing management to move to a new paradigm using risk management - integrated, continuous and expanded throughout the organization. It follows that the development of various risk situations in the present and future should be controlled and monitored, in other words, the organization should introduce into management strategic risk-management.
In our opinion, the term strategic risk management more accurately reflects new trends and trends in the modern economy, since foreseeing the development of a particular situation makes it possible to avoid or reduce the risk of an enterprise falling into an uncertain state, which in the future may affect its finances or reputation.
Strategic risk management is the art of risk management in an uncertain economic situation, based on risk prediction and risk reduction techniques.
Table 1. 1.
The main features of the new and old paradigms of risk management
old paradigm | New paradigm | |
Fragmented risk management: each department independently manages risks (according to their functions). First of all, this concerns accounting, financial and audit departments. | Integrated, unified risk management: risk management is coordinated by top management; each employee of the organization considers risk management as part of their job | |
Episodic risk management: risk management is carried out when managers deem it necessary | Continuous risk management: the risk management process is continuous | |
Limited risk management: primarily concerned with insured and financed risks | Advanced risk management: all risks and opportunities for their organization are considered | |
Source. Economist Intelligence Unit, Managing Business Risks, 10. A similar analysis is presented in DeLoach, Enterprise-Wide Risk Management, p. 15-16. |
Therefore, strategic risk management is a targeted search and work to reduce the degree of risk, which is focused on obtaining and increasing profits in an uncertain economic situation. The ultimate goal is to obtain maximum profit with the optimal ratio for the entrepreneur of profit and risk.
Strategic risk management forms the basis and integrates the risk management process as a whole. A diagram of such a process is shown in Figure 1.1.
Rice. 1.1. The process of strategic risk management in the enterprise
Initially, it is necessary to develop a risk policy at the enterprise. This happens as an advantage from the goals of the enterprise and from the goals of risk management. And, as you know, the goals of risk management are directly related to the goals of the enterprise. Production and economic goals include (as technology goals, market goals, product goals, quality goals), as well as financial goals (capital interest accrual, profitability).
The goals of risk management in particular are:
ensuring the safety of the goals of the enterprise additionally cost-oriented risk management chances;
ensuring the safety of the success of the enterprise;
reducing risk costs.
Once the risk management objectives have been established, the management of the enterprise should be the corresponding highest authority in the risk management strategy.
The goal of strategic risk management is the awareness of risk as an element of the company's culture. For the management of the enterprise, it is necessary to realize: "What can be easily described on a piece of paper can be difficult to create in the complex context of the enterprise." Therefore, it is necessary to carefully approach the planning of complex systems in the enterprise in order to maintain a prompt response to upcoming risk situations.
Operational risk management contains the process of systematic and ongoing risk analysis of the enterprise and life. However, in value-oriented risk management, chances must also be taken into account in addition to the risk component. The goal should be to optimize the risk and chance profile of the enterprise. It is necessary to achieve the optimal possible reliability (security) of the enterprise, and not the maximum possible.
Further, the risks of the enterprise are identified and analyzed. After the analysis, it is necessary to obtain the maximum possible information about the stages of growth and trends in the development of the risk situation in the enterprise. The information task is the most difficult phase in the risk management process and at the same time one of the final stages of risk management. It is necessary to organize and establish a systematic, process-oriented risk management course of action for all employees of the enterprise.
A feature of "risk situations" at the present time is that significant place should be given to economic and mathematical methods, which allow quantitatively measuring qualitative factors, in contrast to verbal assessments. Economic-mathematical methods and models allow simulating economic situations and assessing the consequences of choosing one or another decision, without costly experiments. These include: game theory; simulation methods and models; graph theory; a special place now began to be given to econometric methods. As part of analytical calculations, the methods of factor analysis, balance methods, probability theory in combination with other methods, etc. are also involved.
The risk and uncertainty of the outcomes of certain "risk situations" depend only on the random state of the environment or the choice of the course of action of competitors, or the probabilistic nature of the desired result for possible strategies. Depending on the scenario being developed, it is important for an entrepreneur to know the criteria by which optimistic, pessimistic, realistic results can be obtained. It follows that the risk does not arise if the situation does not have the following simultaneous conditions:
uncertainties;
there is no choice of alternative;
the outcome of the selected solution is not visible.
Modern computer programs allow solving the problems posed using simulation methods and models. They provide ample opportunities for statistical and economic-mathematical modeling by analyzing econometric and time sequences, allowing you to accurately assess possible risks. An important feature such programs is the assessment of risk factors with the minimum amount of data available. Simulation models allow you to model and predict the distribution of risk, which gives you operational scope for analyzing and working out possible bottlenecks in order to cover them. In addition, such programs have a simple, convenient and intuitive interface. Consequently, this leads to improved decision-making, as in this case, all employees retain a common strategic understanding of the risks, and do not lose sight of the details. In this case, heuristic methods with the use of expert assessments play a decisive role.
The economic situation in Russia is forcing Russian companies to enter international markets, while Western companies seek to settle in our market. All this is the reason for changing attitudes towards enterprise management methods. In addition, Russia has charted a course to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) as soon as possible and without complications. Therefore, enterprises that wish to effectively develop their activities not only in Russia, but also abroad, must follow the new rules of the game and in every possible way monitor the strategic aspects of the development of risk management as a new paradigm. This is especially true for the Kaliningrad region, a Russian enclave located in the center of Europe, which has close links with the business environment of the European Union.
2. Concept and toclassification of strategic risks
Risk is a complex phenomenon that has many different and sometimes opposite foundations and prerequisites. This leads to the possibility of the existence of several definitions of the concepts of risk from different points of view.
Here are just a few of them:
Risk - a potential, numerically measurable possibility of loss, and the concept of risk refers to the uncertainty associated with the possibility of adverse situations and consequences during the implementation of the project;
Risk - the probability of occurrence of losses, damages, shortfalls in planned income, profit;
Risk is the uncertainty of our future financial results.
As a classification feature of strategic risks, the main spheres of the state's life were selected (Table 2): political, economic, social, natural-technogenic, scientific and technical. Currently, domestic scientists have carried out preliminary studies to identify and assess the significance of strategic risks for ensuring Russia's national security in each of the spheres of the state's life.
Strategic risks in the political sphere
in Russia in the twentieth century. political risks acquired a strategic character during periods of cardinal changes in the foundations political system, forms of ownership and the nature of the economy. In security theory, these periods can be characterized by the emergence of instability and bifurcations in the political sphere.
RAS scientists have identified strategic risks in the political sphere, which are ranked in order of importance for ensuring national security and sustainable development of Russia in the long term.
The main ones are (in brackets - the significance of the risk):
strengthening the position of the United States in modern world and their desire for dictatorship (1.00);
increasing power of China (0.61);
decrease in the country's defense capability and combat capability of the Armed Forces (0.59);
the possibility of internal interethnic and interfaith conflicts (0.55);
increased military threat from the US and NATO (0.44);
the possibility of regional and local military conflicts (0.40);
formation of a new center of militant fundamentalism south of Russia's borders (0.34);
increasing threats of international terrorism (0.27);
the possibility of intensifying inter-party struggle
political extremism (0.13).
Strategic risks in economic sphere
Strategic risks in the economic sphere with varying degrees of depth and detail have been and are being analyzed for many decades in our country and in the world. In this analysis and in forecasts of economic development, the main attention, as a rule, was paid to trend patterns and the main average statistical indicators of the state of the economy: profits, GDP, budget revenues and expenditures, inflation, tariffs of natural monopolies, and the national currency exchange rate. These economic parameters are what the Government of the Russian Federation is trying to control.
Domestic scientists and experts identify the following main risks for Russia in the economic sphere (in brackets - the significance of the risk):
irrational choice of priorities and proportions of economic development, increased structural deformation of the country's economy (1.00);
criminalization of the economy and capital flight from the country (0.56);
decline in production potential and low investment activity (0.42);
the possibility of an energy crisis (0.32);
exceeding the limits of openness of the national economy in the conditions international globalization (0.29);
unfavorable economic situation, decrease in world energy prices (0.17);
external debt, creating the risk of an aggravation of the financial crisis (0.15);
low competitiveness of products (0.12);
decline in agricultural production, loss of food independence (0.11).
Strategic risks in social sphere
The main goal of managing strategic risks in the social sphere is to enter the trajectory of evolutionary and predictable development while maintaining the priority of ensuring national security. At this stage of stabilization development, the structure of strategic risks will change, the likelihood of adverse social crises will decrease, the forecast horizon will increase, and the damage will decrease.
The main risks for modern Russia in the social sphere are (in brackets - the significance of the risk):
corruption, criminalization and incompetence of power structures, decrease in trust in the authorities (1.00);
declining living standards and antagonizing the social structure (0.76);
spiritual crisis in society (0.29);
uneven socio-economic development of the country's regions (0.27);
increase in crime (0.23);
growth of alcoholism and drug addiction (0.19);
exacerbation of the demographic situation in the country (0.18);
the possibility of biological and social emergencies (0.08).
Strategic risks in science and technology
The further development of all spheres of life in Russia should be based on a direct analysis of strategic risks in the scientific and technical sphere, since it determines the economic and export potential of the country, creates the scientific basis for material production and the real sector of the economy.
The main risks in the scientific and technical sphere are (in parentheses - the significance of the risk):
irrational choice of science and technology policy priorities (1.00);
decrease in scientific, technical and innovative potentials: brain drain, aging of personnel, crisis in the education system (0.70);
growth of information vulnerability of all spheres of society (0.33);
increasing threat of unauthorized use of modern technologies (0.17);
uncertainty of risks of future technologies (communication, information, genetic, space, etc.) (0.10).
Strategic risks in natural and technogenic spheres
These risks are now becoming strategic due to global changes in the environment, the development of the technosphere and the increasing scale of natural disasters.
The main risks for Russia in these areas are:
risks of natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, floods, karst, forest fires, etc.) (risk significance 1.00);
risks of accidents and catastrophes at potentially hazardous facilities (0.94);
environmental pollution (0.43);
risks associated with global climate change, environmental degradation, planetary risks (0.24);
depletion of natural and biological resources (0.15).
3. Risk assessment methods
The risk of an entrepreneur is quantitatively characterized by a subjective assessment of the expected value of the maximum and minimum income or loss from capital investment. Usually, the greater the range between the maximum and minimum income (loss) with an equal probability of receiving them, the higher the degree of risk. The entrepreneur is forced to take on the risk due to the uncertainty of the economic situation, the uncertainty of the conditions of the political and economic situation and the prospects for changing these conditions. The greater the uncertainty of the economic situation when making a decision, the higher the degree of risk.
The risk to which the enterprise is exposed is the probable threat of ruin or incurring such financial losses that can stop the whole business. Since the probability of failure is always present, the question arises of methods to reduce risk. To answer this question, it is necessary to quantify the risk, which will allow us to compare the magnitude of the risk of various solutions and choose from them the one that best suits the risk strategy chosen by the enterprise.
The American expert B. Berlimer suggested using some assumptions in the analysis:
Risk losses are independent of each other.
A loss in one line of business does not necessarily increase the likelihood of a loss in another (except under force majeure).
the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.
There are two types of analysis - quantitative and qualitative.
Qualitative analysis allows you to identify factors and potential areas of risk, to identify its possible types. Quantitative analysis aims to quantify risks, analyze and compare them. In quantitative risk analysis, a statistical method, cost-benefit analysis, methods of expert assessments, analogies, assessment of solvency and financial stability are used.
The method of expert assessments is based on the generalization of the opinions of expert experts on risk probabilities. Intuitive characteristics based on the knowledge and experience of each expert are taken into account. Expert methods allow you to quickly and without large time and labor costs to obtain the information necessary to develop a management decision.
The analogy method is usually used when analyzing the risks of a new project. The project is considered as a "living" organism that has certain stages of development. The life cycle of a project consists of a development phase, a launch phase, a growth phase, a maturity phase, and a decline phase. Studying the life cycle of the project, you can get information about each stage of the project, identify the causes of undesirable consequences, and assess the degree of risk. However, in practice it can be quite difficult to collect relevant information.
The method of assessing the solvency and financial stability of an enterprise makes it possible to foresee the probability of bankruptcy. The data of the annual financial statements are analyzed.
It is possible to estimate the probability of the enterprise insolvency. The main insolvency criteria are the current liquidity ratio, the equity ratio and the solvency recovery ratio.
The cost-feasibility method allows you to determine the lower limit of output, at which profit is zero. Production of products in volumes less than critical brings only losses. The critical volume of production must be assessed with a reduction in output caused by a drop in demand, a reduction in the supply of materials and components, replacement of products with new ones, and other reasons.
To carry out the relevant calculations, all costs for the production and sale of products are divided into variables (materials, components, tools, wages, transport costs, etc.) and fixed (depreciation, management costs, rent, interest on loans and etc.).
The critical production volume can be represented as:
O kr \u003d Z post / (C - Z lane)
where Okr is the critical volume of production, C is the price of a unit of production, 3 post is fixed costs, 3 lane is variable costs.
The greater the difference between the actual volume of production and the critical one, the higher the financial stability.
Any change in the volume of production or the level of sales has a significant impact on profit (the effect of production leverage). Production leverage shows the degree of influence of fixed costs on profits (losses) with changes in production volume.
The statistical method consists in studying the statistics of losses and profits that have taken place in a given or similar enterprise in order to determine the likelihood of an event, to establish the magnitude of the risk. The degree of risk is measured by the average expected value and the variability of the possible outcome.
In cases where information is limited, analytical methods are used for quantitative risk analysis, or standard probability distribution functions, such as the normal distribution, or the Gaussian distribution, the exponential (exponential) probability distribution, which is quite widely used in reliability calculations, as well as the Poisson distribution, which is often used in queuing theory.
In foreign practice, it is proposed to use a tree of probabilities as a method of quantitative determination of the risk of investing capital.
This method allows you to accurately determine the probable future cash flows of an investment project in their connection with the results of previous periods of time. If a capital investment project is acceptable in the first period of time, then it may also be acceptable in subsequent periods of time.
If it is assumed that cash flows in different periods of time are independent of each other, then it is necessary to determine the probable distribution of the results of cash flows for each period of time.
In the case where the relationship between cash flows exists in different periods of time, it is necessary to accept this dependence and, on its basis, present future events as they can happen.
4. Risk reduction methods.
Common in economic practice are three basic principles of risk reduction:
do not risk more than your own capital allows;
do not forget about the consequences of the risk;
Don't risk a lot for a little.
The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Very important information about the likelihood of a particular insured event, the magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its competitors, customers. Many types of information are subject to trade secrets and may be one of the types of intellectual property, and therefore be made as a contribution to the authorized capital of a joint-stock company or partnership. The fact that a financial manager has sufficient and reliable business information allows him to quickly make financial and commercial decisions, has a significant impact on the correctness of these decisions. This leads to lower losses and higher profits.
Before deciding on a risky investment of capital, it is necessary to determine the maximum amount of loss for this risk, compare it with the amount of invested capital, compare it with all of your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor. The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount given capital, be less than or greater than it.
The risk management body can be a financial manager, a risk manager or the appropriate management apparatus that conducts venture and portfolio investments (that is, risky investments in accordance with applicable law and the charter of an economic entity), develops a program of risky investment activities. Its functions should include:
collection, analysis, processing and storage of information about the environment.
determination of the degree and cost of risks.
development of a strategy and management techniques, a program of risky decisions and organization of its implementation, monitoring and analysis of results.
implementation of insurance activities.
maintaining appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky capital investments.
When developing a strategy, from the possible options for risky investments of capital, the option is chosen that gives the greatest efficiency of the result with the minimum or acceptable risk for the investor, in which the probabilities of winning and losing for the same risky investment of capital have the smallest gap. The expected reward and risk are estimated, and a decision is made to invest in the event that allows you to get the expected reward and at the same time avoid high risk. There are several ways to choose a solution option, provided that:
the probabilities of possible economic situations are known. The average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital for each option is determined and the option with the highest rate of return is selected.
the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values. By means of an expert assessment, the value of the probability of the conditions of economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is calculated.
the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but the main directions for evaluating the results of capital investment are known. Three directions for evaluating the results of capital investment: choosing the maximum result from the minimum amount of risk; selection of the minimum risk value from the maximum risks; the choice of the average value of the result.
The entrepreneur in the course of his actions in the market is obliged to choose a strategy that would allow him to reduce the degree of risk. Mathematical apparatus for choosing a strategy in conflict situations gives a game theory that allows an entrepreneur or manager to better understand the competitive environment and minimize the degree of risk. Analysis using game theory techniques encourages the entrepreneur to consider all possible alternatives of both his actions and the strategies of partners and competitors. Game theory helps to solve many economic problems related to the choice, determination of the best position, subject only to certain restrictions arising from the conditions of the problem itself. Therefore, the risk has a mathematically expressed probability of loss, which is based on statistical data and can be calculated with a fairly high degree of accuracy.
In order to assess the probability of certain losses due to the development of events according to an unforeseen option, one should first of all know all types of losses associated with entrepreneurship and be able to calculate them in advance or measure them as probable predictive values. It is far from always possible to evaluate each of the types of losses in quantitative terms and bring them together. A random development of events that affects the course and results of entrepreneurship can lead not only to losses in the form of increased resource costs and a decrease in the final result. It can cause an increase in the costs of one type of resource and a decrease in the costs of another type, along with increased costs of some resources, savings of others can be observed. When determining the total possible losses, the accompanying gain should be subtracted from the calculated losses.
In entrepreneurial activity, material, labor, financial, loss of time, special types of losses are distinguished.
Material types of losses are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, etc. Material losses are measured in the same units in which the amount of this type of material resources is measured (in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.).
Losses in the physical dimension are often converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. Having an estimate of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, it is possible to bring them together, which is impossible in physical terms (you cannot add meters and kilograms, etc.).
Labor losses - the loss of working time caused by unforeseen circumstances. Labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost of one hour.
Financial losses - direct monetary damage associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of funds and securities. In addition, financial losses can be in the event of a shortfall or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer of the products supplied to him, a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold, and inflation growth. There are temporary financial losses due to the freezing of accounts, late disbursement of funds, and deferment of debt payments.
Lost time exists when the business process is slower than planned. The assessment of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining the intended result. In order to translate the assessment of time losses into a cost measurement, it is necessary to establish what losses of income, profits from entrepreneurship can lead to random losses of time.
Special types of losses take place in the form of damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as due to other adverse social and moral and psychological consequences. Special types of losses are difficult to quantify and value.
It is necessary to take into account only random losses that are not amenable to direct calculation, direct forecasting and therefore not taken into account in an entrepreneurial project. If losses can be foreseen in advance, then they should be considered not as losses, but as unavoidable expenses. Therefore, the expected movement of prices, taxes, their change in the course of economic activity, the entrepreneur must take into account in the business plan. Before assessing the risk due to the action of purely random factors, it is highly desirable to separate the systematic component of the loss from the random ones.
It is almost impossible to completely avoid risk, but knowing the source of losses, you can reduce their threat, reduce the impact of adverse factors.
Losses in the manufacturing business: Decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, downtime of equipment or underutilization of production capacities, loss of working time, lack of the required amount of materials, an increased percentage of rejects leads to a shortfall in planned revenue. Probable losses in this case in terms of value are determined by the product of the probable total decrease in the volume of output and the selling price of a unit of volume of production. A decrease in prices at which it is planned to sell products due to insufficient quality, an unfavorable change in market conditions, a drop in demand, price inflation leads to probable losses determined by the product of a probable decrease in the price of a unit of output by the total volume of products planned for production and sale.
There are also losses associated with increased material costs, associated with overspending of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy. High transport costs, trading costs, overspending of the target value of the wage fund (due to exceeding the estimated number or payment of higher wages employees), changes in taxes in an unfavorable direction for the entrepreneur also have a negative impact on the functioning of the company.
Losses in business: the losses caused by the increase in the purchase price of goods during the implementation of the project are determined by the product of the volume of purchases of the goods in physical terms by the likely increase in the purchase price. An unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned one causes a decrease in the volume of sales. Also important are the losses of goods during transportation and storage, the loss of consumer value of the goods, leading to a decrease in its value. Increased costs due to unforeseen deductions, fines. The decrease in the sale price of the goods, compared with the design one, is a loss in the amount of the volume of sales multiplied by the decrease in price.
Losses in financial business. the losses of commercial entrepreneurship are inherent in financial entrepreneurship. But when assessing financial risk, it is necessary to take into account such specific factors as the insolvency of financial transaction agents, changes in the exchange rate, securities, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, etc.
Financial risk is very important. The higher the ratio of borrowed funds to own, the more the company depends on creditors, the more serious the financial risk, since the restriction or termination of lending, tightening of credit conditions usually entails difficulties and even stop production due to lack of raw materials, materials, etc.
The manager's willingness to take risks is usually formed under the influence of the results of the practical implementation of past similar decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. The losses incurred dictate the choice of a cautious policy, while success encourages risk taking. Most people prefer low-risk options. The attitude to risk largely depends on the amount of capital that the entrepreneur has.
In the course of evaluating alternative solutions, the manager has to predict possible outcomes. In this case, the decision is made in conditions when the manager can accurately assess the results of each of the alternative solutions. An example would be investments in certificates of deposit and government bonds, where there is a government guarantee and it is known for sure that the interest agreed upon in the terms and conditions will be received on the invested funds.
If the factors requiring analysis and accounting are very complex, and there is no reliable or sufficient information about them, then the probability of a particular result cannot be predicted more or less accurately. Uncertainty is characteristic of many decisions made in rapidly changing circumstances. In this case, the manager will try to obtain additional information, re-analyze the problem and, therefore, take into account its novelty and complexity, combining information and analysis results with accumulated experience. Sometimes it is useful to involve specialists in this work to compile expert assessments. It is also possible to act in accordance with past experience and intuition, especially if there is no time to collect additional information, or if the cost of it is very high.
Basic risk reduction techniques:
Diversification is the process of distributing invested funds between various capital investment objects that are not directly related to each other in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income. Diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk in the distribution of capital between various activities. An enterprise, incurring losses in one type of activity, can make a profit at the expense of another area of activity. Diversification improves the company's resilience to changes in the business environment.
Risk sharing involves the sharing of risk between project participants. The growth in the size and duration of investment, the introduction of new technologies, the high dynamism of the external environment increases the risk of the project. Factoring operations are a way of risk sharing. In the practice of foreign banks, the development of factoring operations is mainly due to the need of individual suppliers for the accelerated receipt of payments, which seem doubtful. As a rule, in these situations there is a risk of non-payment of claims by the payer in general. The bank that redeemed such claims from the supplier in this case may incur losses. Factoring operations are high-risk operations. The amount of the commission depends both on the degree of risk (on the level of "doubtfulness" of the debt being redeemed), and on the duration of the contractual delay. In some cases, it reaches up to 20% of the payment amount.
Acquisition of additional information about the selection and results. More information allows you to accurate forecast and reduce risk, which makes it very valuable. Price complete information is calculated as the difference between the expected cost of an activity (acquisition project) when complete information is available and the expected cost when information is incomplete.
Limiting - setting the maximum amount of expenses, sales, loans, amounts of capital investment. It is used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans, business entities to sell goods on credit, provide loans, determine the amount of capital investment, etc.
Reservation - establishing a relationship between potential risks and the amount of expenses necessary to overcome the consequences of these risks. This method of risk reduction is usually used in the implementation of various projects. In general, the reserve is used to finance additional work, compensate for unforeseen changes in material and labor costs, overheads and other costs that arise during the implementation of the project.
Swap transactions (an agreement to exchange assets and liabilities for similar assets or liabilities in order to extend or shorten maturities or to increase or decrease the interest rate in order to maximize income or minimize financing costs).
Self-insurance. Creation of in-kind and cash insurance funds directly in economic entities, especially in those whose activities are at risk. The main task of self-insurance is to promptly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities.
Insurance is the protection of the property interests of business entities and citizens in the event of the occurrence of certain events (insured events) at the expense of monetary funds formed from the insurance premiums they pay, that is, the transfer of certain risks to an insurance company.
5. Forecast of Russia's strategic risks
The performed preliminary forecast of strategic risk factors for a period of 5 to 20 years provides information for a generalized qualitative assessment of the potential for strategic risks, and also allows drawing preliminary conclusions about the mechanisms for managing them (Fig. 5.1-5.5).
Rice. 5.1. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the economic sphere.
Rice. 5.2. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the political sphere.
Rice. 5.3. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the social sphere.
Rice. 5.4. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the scientific and technical sphere.
Rice. 5.5. Forecast of the significance of strategic risks in the natural and technogenic sphere.
First of all, we note that, according to experts, the importance of the economic sphere of strategic risks remains the most significant for all forecasting horizons. In essence, this factor is system-forming and influencing most spheres of the life of the state. The consequence of this is the conclusion about the need for an extremely deep analysis of existing and future priorities, including a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of the implementation of various scenarios of economic development for different forecasting horizons. Further, it should be noted that the qualitative ranking of the relative importance of the considered areas of strategic risks remains the same for different time perspectives, i.e. is located in the following sequence: economic, political, social, scientific and technical, natural and technogenic spheres. A certain dynamics of relative importance occurs mainly within each listed group.
If we consider the forecast for the near future (up to 5 years), then we can talk about the likely emergence of strategic risks for several reasons: the excess of almost all critical values of national security indicators; a fairly wide list of strategic risk factors with a high degree of implementation; strong mutual influence of factors and the potential for their synergistic enhancement.
In the economic sphere, the emergence of strategic risks is associated with an irrational choice of priorities, increased criminalization and capital flight abroad, a decrease in production potential and the possibility of an energy crisis. The last two components correlate with scientific and technical factors of strategic risks - a decrease in innovation and scientific potential. In the political sphere, the factor of external threats is unequivocally associated with the strengthening of the power and dictate of the United States, which, in particular, can intensify interethnic and regional conflicts. The problem of terrorism, which has both internal and external sources, requires special attention.
The combined impact of economic and political threats in the near future may increase the frequency and extent of social risks. The high level of criminalization of the economy and the incompleteness of the legislative framework for the transition period will contribute to high level corruption. Mistakes in the choice of economic development priorities, uneven development of regions, insufficient attention to the spiritual development of society in previous years are likely to intensify the spiritual crisis (especially among young people), exacerbate the problem of alcohol and drug consumption.
Despite the fact that natural and technogenic risks close the list of relative importance, their constant presence in forecasts allows us to speak about the systemic, basic nature of these factors. Unfortunately, natural extreme events are poorly controlled not only in our country, but also abroad. This refers to the difficulties of reliable forecasting, primarily geological, meteorological and a number of complex natural risks. In this regard, special attention should be paid to the revision of building codes and, in particular, the rules for the placement of buildings and engineering structures in areas exposed to these risks. Technogenic risks are more manageable, however, taking into account the process of aging of the main equipment and the decrease in the professional level of personnel, in the coming years we should expect an increase in the frequency and scale of consequences from accidents and disasters at potentially hazardous facilities. One of the ways to manage risks in the natural and technogenic sphere can be the procedure for certification of safety (complex risk) in the territory of regional and municipalities. The main goal of such certification, in addition to collecting objective information, should be to increase the interest of regional bodies in carrying out preventive measures and to increase their responsibility for failure to take appropriate measures.
Taking into account the peculiarities of these strategic risk factors, special attention should be paid to the development of the concept of economic risk management, especially in terms of creating national system compensation for damages from emergency situations in the natural and technogenic sphere. As a first step, in particular, the recently adopted Concept for the Development of Insurance in the Russian Federation, in which special attention is paid to the development of compulsory types of insurance of natural risks in combination with the creation of centralized guarantee funds, can be considered.
Over a period of up to 10 years, the economic risk factors listed above will be supplemented by threats caused by the excessive openness of the Russian economy and the increased sensitivity of various sectors of the country's economy to fluctuations in the world market. Appropriate measures (legislative, organizational, market) should be developed to increase sustainability. Against the background of adaptation to global economic processes, a balanced system of protection of domestic producers should constantly operate. Otherwise, the listed threats can have not only economic consequences, but also contribute to increased social tension. In the economic sphere, the likelihood and potential scale of an energy crisis (regional, interregional, national) may increase. Despite a significant reserve of energy resources, the lag in the pace of reforming the basic sectors of the energy sector, the low level of innovation processes and a number of other factors can pose a threat to energy security at the national level.
The medium-term forecast is characterized by the emergence of political extremism as a significant factor, but it can achieve a significant impact only in combination with increased social and economic threats.
An analysis of forecasts for individual components of strategic risks allows us to conclude that in the prospect under consideration, the emergence of strategic risks in the Asian part of Russia is very likely. At present, a number of large-scale projects are expected to be launched in Siberia and the Far East (especially in the field of energy), the results of which can significantly affect not only the internal socio-economic atmosphere, but also cause a change in the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The projected increase in the influence of the United States and China over the next 20 years may cause political and economic opposition to the implementation of projects. The emergence of local hotbeds of interethnic conflicts is not ruled out, but the problem of terrorism is of particular concern, since new industrial facilities can become sources of increased interest on the part of the relevant groups, especially if Russia even indirectly supports international anti-terrorist actions.
The social aspect of strategic risks is potentially associated with a further increase in antagonism between the low- and high-paid part of the population, the uneven social development of regions, the aggravation of the demographic situation, the growth of crime, and the emergence of tension between representatives of different sectors of the economy. If at present the most obvious unevenness of the economic development of the regions is reflected in the comparison of the European and Asian parts of Russia, then in ten years the unevenness within the Asian regions of the country may increase. The implementation of large-scale projects is likely to initiate migration processes, which can also become a source of additional social conflicts.
For a long-term perspective (up to 20 years), the forecast of strategic risks, of course, is the most schematic. This forecasting horizon is characterized by approximately the same list of possible threats, however, the strength of their potential manifestation may somewhat decrease. Depending on the success and effectiveness of anti-terrorist actions, both the danger of large-scale terrorist acts and the possibility of a strong center of fundamentalism in Asia may be weakened or strengthened.
Even for a long-term perspective, the forecasts of the social component of strategic risk remain the problem of the growth of crime, alcoholism and drug addiction. This suggests that the currently existing or predicted, taking into account existing knowledge, mechanisms for managing these risks are clearly not enough and they are ineffective.
Conclusion
Man is constantly faced with risk. Often, without having complete information, we have to make a choice, which, unfortunately, is not always the right one. Any entrepreneur always acts at his own peril and risk, further activities organization will depend on this person, on his foresight and knowledge.
Risk management is one of the components of the corporate production process, so it must be integrated into this process, it must have its own strategy, tactics, and operational implementation. At the same time, it is important not only to carry out risk management, but also to periodically review the measures and means of such management.
When choosing a specific means of risk resolution, one should proceed from the following principles: one should not risk more than equity can afford; one cannot risk much for the sake of little; the consequences of risk must be foreseen. The application of these principles in practice means that it is necessary to calculate the maximum possible loss for a given type of risk, compare it with the amount of capital of the enterprise exposed to this risk, and then compare the entire possible loss with the total amount of own financial resources. And just doing last step it is possible to determine whether this risk will lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise. Thus, in the management of financial risks and risks in general, all the functions of the financial management cycle are involved: from planning to control.
An important aspect of the risk problem is organizational issues risk management. Each enterprise should have a risk management body with certain functional responsibilities and the necessary material, financial, labor and information resources. High efficiency of spending resources in the implementation of a risk management program can only be ensured within the framework of a systematic approach, which is the most common in risk management.
In this paper, the types of strategic risks, the development of risk management, the main methods of risk assessment and analysis, the forecast of strategic risks were considered - something without which it is impossible effective management risk. The main difficulty of the risk management problem lies in the fact that there are no "ready-made" recipes. Each issue that needs to be considered in the enterprise needs its own unique approach.
Practical part
Theoretical foundations of the BCG matrix
There are many ways to strategically analyze a firm's business portfolio, one common feature of which is the study of industry structures. One of them was developed by the Boston Consulting Group and was the first and most realistically reflects the firm's portfolio planning technique.
The matrix of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is an important tool for carrying out assortment analysis, assessing the market prospects of goods, developing an effective marketing policy, and forming an optimal product portfolio for a company. This matrix is based on the following assumptions: the greater the growth rate, the greater the development opportunities; the larger the market share, the stronger the position of the organization in the competition.
A large market share gives you the opportunity to get more profit and have a stronger position in the competition. On fig. 1. BCG matrix is given, in this option using indicators of relative market share (x-axis) and relative market growth rate (y-axis). In other cases, the absolute values of these indicators are also used; for the indicator of market share, it is possible to use a logarithmic scale.
Relativity means dividing the scores for specific products by their highest value for their own products or those of competitors; thus, the range of change in relative indicators lies in the range from 0 to 1. For the market share indicator, in this case, the reverse scale is used, i.e. in the matrix it ranges from 1 to 0, although in some cases a straight scale may also be used. The growth rate of the market is determined for some time interval, say for a year.
The intersection of these two coordinates forms four quadrants. If products are characterized by high values of both indicators, then they are called "stars", they should be supported and strengthened. "Stars" - the most promising, developing type of product, tends to increase its share in the company's product portfolio, is at the stage of growth. The expansion of the production of this product is due to the profit from its sales. True, the "stars" have one drawback: since the market is developing at a high pace, the "stars" require high investments, thus "eating up" the money they have earned. If the products are characterized high value indicator X and low - Y, then they are called "cash cows" and are the generators of the organization's cash, since it is not required to invest in the development of the product and the market (the market does not grow or grows slightly), the product has the maximum share in the company's product portfolio. Proceeds from the sale of this product can be used to finance the production and development of other products. The disadvantage is that there is no future behind them. With a low value of X and a high value of Y, products are called "difficult children" ("wild cats", "question marks"), they must be specially studied in order to establish whether they cannot turn into "stars" with certain investments. When both the X indicator and the Y indicator are low, then the products are called "dogs" ("losers", "dogs"), bringing either small profits or small losses; they should be disposed of if possible, if there are no good reasons for their preservation (possible renewal of demand, they are socially significant products and so on.).
Usually, when using the BCG matrix, the third indicator is used, the value of which is proportional to the radius of the circle drawn around the point characterizing the position of the product in the matrix. In most cases, sales volume or profit is used as such an indicator.
Successful products, as a rule. They start their life in the market as "difficult children", then they move into "stars", as demand is saturated, they move into "cash cows" and end their market life as "losers".
The BCG matrix, in addition to the level of individual products, is applied at the level of the organization as a whole. In this case, not individual products are applied to the matrix, but data on the results of the activities of competing organizations. There are known cases of using the BCG matrix when conducting cross-country comparisons. Then the data characterizing, say, sales of steel on world markets by various countries are placed in the matrix.
Along with clarity and apparent ease of use, the BCG matrix has certain disadvantages. The first group of shortcomings is not of a fundamental nature and can be overcome. First of all, the difficulties of collecting data on market share and market growth rate should be noted here. To overcome this shortcoming, qualitative scales can be used that use such gradations as: greater than, less than, equal to, etc. Further, it should be noted that the BCG matrix gives a statistical picture of the position of the company, types of business in the market, on the basis of which it is impossible to make predictive estimates like: "Where will the products under study be located in the matrix after one year?" This shortcoming can be reduced by carrying out repeated measurements at certain time intervals and fixing the directions of movement along the field of the matrix of individual products. Such information already has a certain predictive value.
Among the fundamental shortcomings of the BCG matrix, first of all, is the following. It does not take into account the interdependence (synergistic effect) of individual types of business: if such a dependence exists, this matrix gives distorted results.
Further, it should be noted that assessing the attractiveness of the market only in terms of the rate of change in sales volume, and the strength of the business position only in terms of market share, is a strong simplification. Rather, a multi-criteria assessment should be carried out for each of these areas, which is done using the General Electric (GE) matrix.
The characteristics of the Diana product portfolio are given in the table:
Name of product | Volume of sales | Market capacity in 2005 | Implemented by a competitor in 2005 | |||
Work suit diagonal | ||||||
Dressing gown white, black | ||||||
PVC knitted gloves | ||||||
Cotton knitted gloves | ||||||
Cotton jacket | ||||||
Welder's mask | ||||||
Bib pants blue diagonal |
It is necessary, using the matrix of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), to form a product strategy for the enterprise.
Let's calculate the initial data for constructing the BCG matrix:
Total volume = 10412
When constructing the BCG matrix, the average growth rate index = 1.05 and the average value of the relative market share = 16 are used as the scale for evaluating individual types of products.
Let's build a BCG matrix based on the initial data:
Based on the analysis of the BCG matrix, it is necessary to form a product strategy for the enterprise. Product strategy can be represented in the table:
Strategy | ||
No. 1 - suit working diagonal | At the expense of funds, increase the volume of sales and then the product will move into the category of "wild cats" | |
No. 4 - knitted cotton gloves | Conduct market research and possibly increase the sales volume, since the share in the sales volume is only (12.87%) and the product can move into the category of "wild cats" | |
Wild cats | ||
No. 3 - knitted gloves with PVC | To study whether it is possible, with additional investments in advertising, to gain a larger market share in relation to a competitor. | |
No. 8 - bib pants blue diagonal | It is possible to transfer the goods to the "stars" with additional investment of funds. | |
cash cows | ||
No. 2 - work dressing gown white, black | It is necessary to maintain existing positions for this product, it does not require additional investments and brings a stable income. | |
No. 7 - welder's mask | Increasing the share in the sales volume and maintaining the existing position. | |
No. 5 - felt boots | The product brings a stable income, maintain existing positions in the market and slightly increase the share of sales in the market | |
No. 6 - wadded jacket | Expansion of production of this product at the expense of profit from its sale. |
Using the BCG matrix, the company forms the composition of its portfolio (that is, it determines the combination of capital investments in various industries, various business units). In this case, the most acceptable strategy option within the framework of the BCG matrix is the growth and increase in market share, that is, the transfer of the first and fourth goods into the “wild cats” square and their further transformation into “stars”, and the company will receive funds for these activities for account of proceeds from the sale of "cash cow" (the second, seventh and fifth goods).
Bibliography
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10. http://www.risknet.de/Risk_Management/risk_management.html
Everyone is interested in risk because risk is associated with success. What is success, people define in different ways, but no one disputes that one has to take risks on the way to it. The implementation of any activity is impossible without risk. In fact, business is the acceptance of risk in the expectation of an acceptable reward.
Risk management is an integral part of the overall management of any organization that seeks to survive and fulfill its mission. Risk management may even be a systemic goal for some organizations. In this case, risk management can become part of operational management. For example, what is the purpose of the army in the modern world? Fight against war by all means, including the military. In this case, risk management is the main goal, and warfare is a secondary goal.
What does enterprise risk management involve?
Risk Management Processes
Risk management is the processes associated with the identification, analysis of risks and decision-making, which include maximizing the positive and minimizing the negative consequences of the occurrence of risk events. The project risk management process typically includes the following procedures:
1. Risk management planning - the choice of approaches and planning activities for project risk management.
2. Identification of risks - identification of risks that can affect the project, and documentation of their characteristics.
3. Qualitative risk assessment - a qualitative analysis of risks and the conditions for their occurrence in order to determine their impact on the success of the project.
4. Quantification - a quantitative analysis of the likelihood of occurrence in the impact of the consequences of risks on the project.
5. Risk response planning - determination of procedures and methods for mitigating the negative consequences of risk events and using possible benefits.
6. Risk monitoring and control - monitoring risks, identifying remaining risks, implementing the project risk management plan and evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions.
Risk identification
The risks are many and varied. But when determining the risk profile of any organization, analysts first of all highlight strategic risks. What is it based on?
The development of any company is impossible without tactics and strategy. Even when top managers claim that there is no strategy, it is in fact a short-term strategy for adapting to current changes. Sometimes, for example, in troubled times, this strategy may turn out to be correct. If the management is simply passive, and this may be beneficial for the current management, then the company will inevitably begin to lose its market value under the blows of competitors and random circumstances.
Are there any mistakes in management? Practice shows that the more likely to make mistakes, the more aggressive the development policy and the more ambitious the company's management. The possibility of such errors constitutes a set of errors that can be combined under a single name - strategic risks.
Considering strategic risk means considering the possibility of an unexpected event that reduces the possibility of an unexpected event that reduces the ability of managers to develop a company management strategy in a timely and quality manner and implement a management strategy adopted by management (Simons.R.A Note on Identifying Strategic Risk// Harvard Business Scool Review .1999/November.P.1)
The control system may not be able to implement the strategy for the following reasons:
1) from the process of doing business (operational risk)
2) from the possibility of deterioration of the company's assets
3) from changes in the competitive environment
4) from the loss of a good name, loss of reputation, loss of trust.
In order to consistently protect the company from the risk of failure of the adopted management strategy, it is necessary to build a protection system based on a clear way of describing the strategy itself.
Such a tool - strategy mapping as a way to consistently describe an organization's management strategy as a whole - was first proposed by Kaplan and Norton in their concept of a balanced scorecard.
The strategy includes a transition from state of the art to a desirable future. The construction of strategic strategy maps includes the formulation of a strategy and a system of ways to implement it. A detailed description of strategy mapping techniques can be found in the books by Norton and Kaplan.
The base map of any management strategy is shown in Figure 2.
I don’t even really get into the essence of the concept, risk managers can draw significant conclusions from this structural diagram.
The assessment of the complex of strategic risks here should be carried out in relation to each element and indicator of success, in turn analyzing the specific formulation of the strategy as aggressive, moderate or non-aggressive. . The risk assessment then shifts to an assessment of a strategy to increase revenue and productivity. Then the strategies of communication with the clientele are analyzed, the possibilities of new ideas within the company, as well as the accumulation of experience, training and development of the corporate culture under the new overall strategy. If the risks for at least the bottom element turn out to be too high, then the whole strategy may be questionable. In this case, a decision is made on the excessively risky element, and then the overall strategy is evaluated and the risk indicators of all elements are reconsidered.
For some elements of the management strategy, techniques have been developed to detect early symptoms of problems and opportunities. An example of such a technique is “Management of strategic circumstances”. Essentially, this is a preventive way to deal with the risk of falling behind the process. The method focuses on the so-called strategic gaps, which are detected by weak qualitative and quantitative symptoms that herald the emergence of new technologies.
The most important strategic risks include the risk of stopping the company's production. For some firms, it is so important that special business continuity plans are drawn up for it. One of the most important indicators of a company's risk resilience is the number of downtime days that turn downtime into bankruptcy and exit from business. Sometimes this indicator is difficult to calculate, and sometimes it is obvious. In any case, it needs to be known both for the company as a whole and for its key divisions and elements.
Risk Management Methods
In the conditions of action of various external and internal risk factors can be used various ways risk reduction that affects certain aspects of the enterprise.
The variety of methods used in entrepreneurial activity can be divided into 4 groups:
Risk Avoidance Methods
Risk localization methods
Risk diversification methods.
Risk compensation methods.
When choosing a specific risk management method, the risk manager should proceed from the following principles:
You can't risk more than your own capital can afford.
Don't risk a lot for a little
The consequences of the risk should be foreseen.
The most common methods of risk avoidance in economic practice.
Risk Avoidance Methods:
Rejection of unreliable partners, refusal to participate in projects related to the need to expand the circle of partners, refusal of investment and innovation projects, the confidence in the feasibility or effectiveness of which is questionable
Risk insurance is the main method of risk reduction. Insurance of possible losses serves not only as protection against bad decisions, but also increases the responsibility of decision makers, forcing them to take the development and decision-making more seriously, to regularly carry out protective measures in accordance with insurance contracts.
Search for guarantors
Dismissal of incompetent employees.
If it is possible to clearly identify the risks and sources of their occurrence, apply risk localization methods. For example, by separating the most dangerous stages or areas of activity into separate structural units, you can make them more controllable and reduce the level of risk.
Risk diversification methods consist in the distribution of the total risk into independent ones, thereby lowering the probability of the total risk.
For example, it can be diversification (diversity) of activities or areas of management - expanding the range of products or services provided, targeting different types of consumers, enterprises of different regions. This may be the diversification of sales and supplies, i.e. work simultaneously in several markets, when losses in one market can be compensated in other markets.
Diversification of the risks of investment projects is the preference for the implementation of several relatively small investment projects
When implementing projects, this is the distribution of responsibility between project participants, a clear distribution of the scope and responsibility of each participant.
Risk compensation methods
Risk compensation methods are associated with the creation of hazard prevention mechanisms. These methods are more labor intensive and require extensive upfront work to apply them.
Strategic planning of activities as a method of risk compensation gives a positive effect if the development of a strategy covers all areas of the enterprise. The stages of strategic planning can remove most of the uncertainty, allow you to predict the emergence of bottlenecks in the implementation of projects, identify sources of risks in advance and develop compensatory measures, a plan for the use of reserves.
Forecasting the external environment, i.e. periodically developing development scenarios and assessing the future state of the business environment for project participants, forecasting the behavior of partners and competitors, general economic forecasting.
Monitoring the socio-economic and regulatory environment involves tracking current information about relevant processes.
Creation of a system of reserves. This method is close to insurance, but concentrated within the enterprise. The enterprise creates insurance stocks of raw materials, materials, components, reserve funds of funds, develops plans for their use in crisis situations, does not use free capacities.
It is relevant to develop a financial strategy for managing your assets and liabilities with the organization of their optimal structure and sufficient liquidity of invested funds.
Personnel training and instruction.
When using the methods of strategic planning and monitoring, it is necessary to widely use informatization - the acquisition and constant updating of systems of regulatory and reference information, connecting to commercial information networks, conducting their own predictive and analytical studies, and attracting consultants. The data obtained will allow us to catch trends in the development of relationships between business entities, give time to prepare for regulatory innovations, provide an opportunity to take appropriate measures to compensate for losses from new business rules, and adjust operational and strategic plans.
The abundance of information makes it necessary to use a specialized information system.
To automate risk management processes, various solutions have been proposed, for example, the use of relational databases, enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. Not too great adaptability of these systems to the variety of processes involved in risk management processes leads to the fact that office applications are used to automate these processes as a maximum, which means automation of work at one workplace and cannot give an operational picture of the work of the entire organization.
The development of electronic document management systems (EDMS) shows that the most rationally integrated solution is a combination of ERP and EDMS using WorkFlow (“Workflow”, business process automation), moreover, the transactional and settlement part of the processes is in ERP, and the documentary part is in EDMS.
The need to use EDMS determines the presence of such factors:
Variety of risks, methods of dealing with risks,
The information used in risk management processes can be very different - text files, spreadsheets, scanned documents, photographs (for example, snapshots from the scene),
Many employees and departments of the organization can be involved in the processes of working with this information.
Program monitoring and early warning system
Corporate risk-hazard monitoring systems were first created in the 60s of the 20th century. These systems were based mainly on the analysis of historical data and the identification of trends. Taking into account these trends, target figures were planned, upon reaching which the system was considered normal (normal)
The next generation in the early 1980s was early warning systems for hazards and opportunities, which relied on special lists of empirical and calculated diagnostic quantitative and qualitative signs. This methodology supplements the monitoring system with a map of control and diagnostic points, which are monitored and compared with standards. If an abnormality in the state of one or more of these points is detected, an alarm signal is issued to the control system, which must take measures to correct the situation.
At present, systems for monitoring the strategic components of the risk management program (Strategic Issue Management, SIM) are considered to be the last word in this area. The main difference of this approach from the previous ones is an attempt to implement risk management of the company from the positions “Before”, and not “Post-the-fact” . SIM systems focus on structural changes in the company and its environment, acting like a 360-degree radar and trying to detect so-called strategic discontinuities or strategic surprises as early as possible. Added to this is the “violation of the status quo” and the “growing asymmetry”. Such violations are detected on the basis of diagnostic lists even in conditions of weak signals and unstructured information.
For this purpose, monitoring of suspicious symptoms is established and its development is monitored.
Examples of discontinuity: breakeven point and points of no return. The latter can be characterized economically, financially, legally, technically, etc. A point of no return is a situation after which the process will inevitably go into a certain risk corridor. After this point, the risk can be considered accepted, and in the event of the realization of the danger that created this risk, all losses will fall on the account of the person or organization that accepted this risk. Managers can “play back”, cancel a risky project with acceptable losses up to this point, and after passing it, all that remains is to hope that the risk with the accepted probability of defeat will follow the path of victory, and be ready to apply crisis or catastrophic management schemes if, despite all precautions, the process went unfavorably.
No surprises happen completely out of the blue. Surprise is the result of ignorance, inattention, unarmedness or inability of the observer. That is why SIM systems attach such importance to increasing risk sensitivity and diagnostic qualification of personnel. With this approach, it becomes possible to preventively manage risks in conditions of complete uncertainty and incomplete repeatability of events.
The methodology for identifying symptoms of early warning about company problems is evolving in different directions.
One of the most popular lists of early warning symptoms of a firm's problems was published in 1993 by John Barrickman, commissioned by the American Bankers Association. This list has become something of a classic. It is often quoted and inserted into banking publications. The volume of the article does not allow citing it in its entirety. Here is a small excerpt as an example:
A noticeable change in the behavior (personal habits) of the image of the key personnel of the company
Inability of key employees to clearly articulate the mission, overall and competitive strategy of their firm
Problems in the family and marriage of key employees of the company
A change in the attitude of the firm or its representatives towards the bank or the banker, especially a decrease in interest in cooperation.
Personal optionality of the client (or his representative) or reduction in the level of obligation.
The firm's inexperience in the industry or line of business.
Changes in the composition of the company's management
Changes in the composition of the company's owners
Changes in the composition of key specialists
Failure to meet schedule obligations.
Bringing back issues that have already been resolved in the past.
The inability of the company to plan its activities in a quality manner, etc.
Another direction in building a forecast for the development of events is to monitor the balanced scorecard, which has already been mentioned when considering strategic risks.
The concept of Kaplan and Norton proceeds from the position that it is impossible to manage according to one indicator - profit, just as it is impossible to fly an airplane using only one instrument. Profit is an indicator of past decisions made and does not at all show how events will develop further.
Through a balanced scorecard, you can simultaneously build a company strategy. The indicators will then act as benchmarks for collective action.
At the same time, they can serve as indicators of how effective the actions taken are in achieving the goals set. Comparison with planned indicators makes it possible to determine the direction of development of events.
Building an effective risk monitoring system
How to navigate the variety of risks that occur in the activities of any company that decides to operate in such difficult modern conditions?
An effective risk monitoring system should have the following elements:
Clearly defined surveillance areas
Wide network of observers and agents
Filters and criteria for evaluating incoming information
Clearly defined channels of communication with the management and managed subsystems of the company
subsystem of self-improvement.
What information system can provide the requirements for the operation of such risk monitoring systems?
Attempts to use relational databases or systems like ERP (resource management) for this have not been very effective, and at present, office applications are mainly used to automate risk management work. The simplicity and low cost of this solution are combined with the limitations of the system to one workstation, i.e. the control system cannot be made multi-user and reduce the possibility of analysis.
The capabilities of modern electronic document management systems make it possible to organize the collection and storage of information at all stages of risk management, to create and regulate the necessary information flows.
The main advantages of the EDMS for building a risk management system include the following:
1) the ability to store a wide variety of information.
The main processes of risk management are the collection of documents, storage and transfer of them to all those who need it.
Therefore, EDMS are more suitable for carrying out such processes, which can store part of the information in a structured (like tables) form, and part in the form of attached files. For numerical methods of analysis, data can be transferred to specialized programs.
The information used for risk monitoring can be extremely varied - WORD files (eg expert opinions), scanned images (eg licenses), photos from the scene, tables of exchange rates, etc.
2) availability of mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of plans
Planning of actions and control of their execution -an important part risk management systems. The mechanism for creating a hierarchical system of orders with the appointment of specific executors, sending reminders about the approaching deadline or that the deadline has passed, but the order has not been fulfilled, drawing up analytical reports on performance discipline makes risk management really work with minimal time spent on control processes, what gives people the opportunity to really think - have we foreseen everything?
3) the possibility of functional and geographical scaling.
All experts agree on the practical impossibility of simultaneously introducing a full-scale risk management system in an organization.
As a rule, the process of introducing a risk management system begins with a pilot project in a separate, most critical area (operational risks for banks, technical risks for industry, foreign exchange risks for foreign economic activity). Having worked out risk management technologies in this pilot area, risk management is deployed to other types of risk.
Deployment can proceed on a functional basis: at first, only the functions of monitoring events or monitoring the implementation of plans are implemented, then drawing up predictive scenarios for developing comprehensive action plans, and already - as a crown - drawing up analytical expert generalizations with an analysis of the situation and the effectiveness of the measures taken.
The EDMS functionality makes it possible to carry out both geographical and functional scaling.
The "Client-Server" architecture allows you to connect new users and include them in ongoing processes simply by connecting workplaces without making changes at the program code level.
The reliability of work is ensured through the integration of servers into clusters.
To ensure the work of remote users, a replication mechanism is used. A replica is a complete copy of a database on another server that may be thousands of miles away from where the original document was created. The transfer of information is carried out by the method of replication - maintaining full copies of databases on two or more remote servers. With this mechanism, it is impossible to lose any message. The servers will exchange data until a full match of the information stored in the replicated databases is obtained.
Functional scaling is realized due to the modularity of the EDMS. The sequence of input of risk management processes can be implemented due to the sequence of input of EDMS modules.
The organization of the EDMS, intended for a set of works on the implementation of risk management processes, can be represented as the following scheme:
The initial stage is the development of a strategy and building a risk profile of the organization.
Based on the created risk profile of the organization, forecasts of the development of events are created.
Development of plans for preventive measures and plans for the elimination of consequences.
A control plan is being developed to monitor risk events.
Carrying out control measures with registration of identified risk events in a special database.
Monitoring of the external environment is carried out with the registration of information in the database of risk events.
Analysis of forecasts, accumulated information is carried out and the effectiveness of ongoing activities is determined
The action plan is being adjusted.
The system of balanced scorecards is monitored with the creation of analytical generalizations.
Based on the results, the base of the balanced scorecard is adjusted.
And how to build analytical generalizations, what methods and processing algorithms to use - this task is solved by risk managers in each specific situation.
Methods for constructing analytical generalizations are very diverse and their set continues to grow, as risk management is constantly evolving. New types of risks are emerging, such as the risks of doing business online. And each organization can supplement the theory and practice of risk management with its own experience.
As practice shows, a risk manager, like a doctor, has to learn all his life.
Conducting a strategic analysis of the risks of an enterprise is due to the specifics of strategic planning: firstly, it is a fairly long period for the implementation of these plans, secondly, it is a large number of participants that carry out and influence the process of planning and implementing plans, and thirdly, it is dynamism changes in the factors of the external business environment and the goals of the participants in the planning process themselves. The duration of the process of implementing strategic plans also implies the uncertainty of its implementation. The multiplicity of participants in the planning process, each of which makes certain decisions and influences this process, is also a risk factor, since the deviation of each of the participants from their targets leads to a deviation from the planned plan as a whole. When developing a strategic plan, one should additionally highlight the risks of specific participants in the planning process.
The factors influencing the process of implementing strategic plans complicate the risk analysis. In a strategic risk analysis, it is necessary to examine the participants in the development and implementation of the strategy and the degree of their influence on the progress of the plan; factors influencing the process of implementing the plan, and a lot of data characterizing the object. Risks exist at all stages of strategic planning, and therefore it is necessary to highlight the risks of the strategy, the risks of the SZH (strategic economic zone), the risks of the external business environment in general and the risks of a particular enterprise. The complexity of risk analysis is also explained by the fact that the impact of risk factors is not carried out in a sequential order of their occurrence, but in a certain combination and interrelation. At all stages of the development and implementation of strategies, an enterprise has to deal with various types of risks that differ in the place and time of their occurrence, time and degree of impact, a combination of external and internal factors that affect the level and degree of sensitivity to them.
It seems that when analyzing the risks of an enterprise, it is advisable to single out the following aspects of the analysis:
main sources of risks;
assessment of the probability of incurring losses (or failure to achieve results) associated with individual sources of risks;
actions to reduce the difficulties of overcoming emerging risks.
As a rule, risks that have a single impact are rare. For the most part, all types of risks are interrelated, which greatly complicates the choice of methods for their analysis. First of all, risk analysis must be carried out by dividing all risks into three main categories:
risks of SBA and external business environment;
enterprise-specific risks or internal risks;
risks of a certain project, strategy, product.
A schematic diagram of a strategic risk analysis is shown in fig. 1.
It seems to us that risk analysis should begin with an analysis of SZH risks (strategic economic zone), and then move on to an analysis of the internal risks of a particular enterprise and the relationship of these risks, and in conclusion, analyze the risks of specific strategies that affect the predicted result, taking into account the relationship and interdependence all of the risks listed above.
Strategic risk analysis can be performed according to various schemes and with varying degrees of depth. The nature of strategic analysis, the choice of analysis method and the degree of its depth depend on many factors. The main ones are: the attitude of risk subjects to risks, the level of acceptable risk and the financial capabilities of the risk object.
In the process of strategic risk analysis, a number of requirements must be taken into account:
Rice. 1.
deviations of the evaluation criteria for the implementation of the strategy under the influence of a specific risk factor should be determined individually (if possible);
losses on one type of risk do not necessarily increase the probability of loss on another;
the maximum possible deviation should not exceed the specified parameters of acceptable risk and financial capabilities of the enterprise;
financial costs for the development and implementation of a risk optimization strategy should not exceed the possible loss of the enterprise's potential from the impact of risks.
In this scheme, the entire block of tasks of strategic risk analysis can be divided into three groups:
analytical and managerial;
executive;
coordination.
TO analytical and management group tasks should include: strategic analysis of an operating enterprise or type of business, identification and classification of risks, identification of risk sources, identification of risk factors and study of the dynamics of their relationships and changes, determination of methods for analyzing and assessing risks.
The executive group includes the following tasks: the sequence of actions of all participants in the process of developing and implementing a strategy, controlling actions to implement the adopted strategies, predicting unpredictable risk events.
TO coordination group include the tasks of taking urgent measures to adjust previously adopted strategies and to prevent the consequences of emerging risks, as well as identifying risk management methods.
* The scheme for performing a strategic analysis and the completeness of the study of risk factors, their assessment and determination of the level of risk depend on the information base, the financial capabilities of the enterprise, the degree of sensitivity of this business to risks, the attitude to risk of subjects - the stakeholders of the enterprise. In addition, the specifics of the strategic risk analysis is the fact that during the development and implementation of the strategic plan, new types of risks may appear and the degree of impact of already identified risks may change. Strategic analysis involves the study of the process of developing and implementing strategies, together with the analysis of all factors that determine and influence the planned result. Therefore, strategic analysis is not a discrete action, but is seen as a continuous process that allows you to optimize the degree of impact of risks.
Strategic risk analysis should also include an analysis of future uncertainty at all stages of the implementation of the strategy in order to determine the impact of risks on the planned result or on a given goal. It can be carried out by various methods, but in its content it is advisable to single out two interrelated and complementary aspects - qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative analysis is aimed at determining the zone of risk impact, identifying all kinds of risks in the SZH (strategic economic zone), determining external and internal factors that affect the level of identified risks.
Quantitative analysis has as its main goal the calculation of numerical parameters of the level of exposure to certain risks and the probability of occurrence of each of the identified risks.
When analyzing risks at the macroeconomic level, one can rely mainly on the experience of experts. Having an initial base for assessing the degree of risk, one should constantly monitor the situation of changes in the initial data in order to quickly respond to the changes that occur. With a consistent analysis of options for optimizing the business structure, it becomes necessary to determine fundamental requirements for risk management.
- 1. Risk management does not always mean minimizing the impact of risk. To achieve a certain result in the implementation of the developed strategies for the development of an enterprise, a certain level of risk is quite acceptable, based on the provision of some optimal balance between the result and the level of risk.
- 2. Achieving a compromise between the profitability of optimizing the business structure with a certain level of risk is associated with additional costs. Moreover, the costs of risk management should not exceed the magnitude of the impact of risks on the planned result.
- 3. The need to identify priority areas of management with the proposed optimal basic parameters of the strategy and the level of risk for each of them for different planning horizons.
The methodology of strategic risk analysis may include the sequential implementation of the following steps:
risk analysis of the distant external environment, SZH (strategic economic zone);
risk analysis of the near environment, industry risk;
enterprise or business risk analysis;
risk analysis of typical strategies.
The risks of the distant external business environment include country risk, which can be divided into two main types that require separate analysis: commercial And political risk. Commercial risk in this case, it includes an analysis of the risk of insolvency and the process of its state regulation. political risk, in turn, it is divided into macro-risk and micro-risk. A macro risk is a risk that affects all foreign entities in the country where the strategy is being implemented. Micro-risks are the specific risks of the industry and enterprise. A significant part of political risk specialists are sure that political events, along with opportunities to lose, also bring great chances for the development of an effective business. For strategic planning, this means that when predicting this risk, it is necessary to take into account not only negative, but also positive consequences.
When analyzing the risks of a distant external business environment, it is necessary to first identify the main factors that affect the level of risk. All factors can be subdivided on factors direct impact and factors of indirect influence. The main factors of direct impact in risk analysis include existing legislation, the tax system, the activities of state and non-state bodies related to the process of implementing the developed strategies. The main factors of indirect impact include the following: the political and economic situation in the country, international events in the world.
Risk analysis of the distant external business environment can be carried out in various ways. The most famous are the method of old acquaintances and the method of large tours. The first of them involves the preparation of a report by specialists working in the industry and who know the specifics of changes in each country. The second involves visiting a particular country by a group of expert experts and studying the situation on the ground according to a number of criteria.
The process of analyzing such risks can be carried out in two main stages.
On I stage the main types of risks that may arise in the process of implementing the enterprise development strategy are determined.
On II stage risk analysis determines the main external and internal factors that affect the degree of risk of the enterprise. At this stage, the range of changes in the main indicators characterizing the factors identified at the previous stage is established, and based on the probabilistic distribution of the selected indicators for each of the factors, a model of indicator values is developed, which is the most preferable for the development of this enterprise. The most important thing in the process of risk analysis is the establishment of correlations between indicators of the degree of risk. According to the results of the analysis, the so-called critical variables are determined, according to which the slightest deviation significantly affects the expected result of the implementation of the enterprise development strategy.
Moreover, sensitivity to identified risks is determined at all stages of the implementation of the enterprise development strategy. Evaluation of the deviation of the result obtained in the process of implementing the strategy for changing risk indicators is carried out in order to identify the degree of influence of each of the risk factors on the planned result. The Delphi method can be used in the process of risk analysis.
Country risk quantification provides an opportunity to compare risks across countries. Moreover, the risk assessment of the country is performed by summing the risk assessment coefficients from the impact of various factors. At the same time, this assessment is of a probabilistic nature and cannot take into account all the factors that reflect the specifics of country risk for specific types of business. This is due to the fact that a very specific factor is the sectoral orientation of country risks. Thus, the political changes taking place in the country can lead to the fact that for enterprises in some industries the implementation of their development strategies becomes a rather risky process, while for others, on the contrary, it is very profitable. For example, the development of enterprises of the military-industrial complex in the context of interethnic conflicts is very profitable and low-risk, while the development of enterprises in civilian industries becomes a very risky process.
Therefore, country risk analysis is essential in developing strategies for the development of enterprises in a particular country, especially when deciding whether to choose as a SBA either a country with an economy in transition, or a country with unsustainable development, or a country with sharp fluctuations in the political environment.
The analysis and assessment of the risks of the distant external business environment can be carried out by comparing the rating for various strategies for the development of the enterprise and types of possible risks. An analysis of specific factors and the dynamics of their change makes it possible to assess the magnitude of the country risk, to determine the degree of sensitivity of the development of a particular business in the implementation of a specific strategy to changes in these factors in order to optimize their impact on the predicted result. At the stage of strategic risk analysis, it is necessary not only to examine the risks themselves, but to preliminarily determine the factors that most significantly, according to experts, affect the magnitude of the country risk.
Analysis of the risks of the distant external business environment in our country has its own specific features, mainly related to the rather strong influence of the political risk factor. In addition, this process is complicated by the reform of power structures and the dynamism of the lawmaking process at all levels of economic management. Moreover, quite often legislative acts supplemented in practice by various kinds of by-laws and regulations, which makes it even more difficult to predict the level of risks.
A high degree of risk in the process of implementing development strategies for domestic enterprises is also due to the significant influence of shadow structures on business organization, which must be taken into account when developing a development strategy for any enterprise.
At the same time, in our country, in most cases, the assessment of country risk for enterprises is presented at best only in the form of a description of the political and economic environment and the dynamics of their development in the past with a probabilistic description of the near future. The latter significantly complicates the process of investing in Russian enterprises, since with such an uncertainty in assessing the risks of the external environment, experts consider business in Russia to be very risky. Business in Russia comes into contact with the following factors:
instability of state economic policy, including financial policy;
a fairly complex and constantly changing system of taxation of domestic enterprises;
a very weak regulatory framework for the protection of the rights and interests of owners;
lack of business culture;
weak intellectual property protection;
insufficiently developed information infrastructure;
business criminality.
The factors mentioned above have a significant impact on the risk level of the developed development strategies for Russian enterprises. As a result, when developing any option for conducting a strategic analysis of the development of domestic enterprises, one should take into account a rather high degree of country risk.
In order to reduce the level of country risk, it is necessary to carry out the following main activities:
stabilization of the political situation in the country;
establishment of a long-term tax regime;
stabilization of the functioning of the financial and banking system;
strengthening guarantees of property rights;
increasing the degree of business security;
development of measures to support domestic producers;
formation of a developed information infrastructure.
When analyzing the risks that may arise in the process of implementing the development strategy of a particular enterprise or business, it is necessary, in addition to studying the risks of the distant external business environment, to analyze and assess the risks of SHZ (strategic economic zone). For this you need:
determine the specifics and type of SHZ of a particular enterprise or business;
identify possible types of SHZ risks;
determine and evaluate the dynamics of the level of these risks;
identify the zone of acceptable action of the identified risks.
It should be noted that it is expedient to subdivide the possible risk zones into four main groups:
risk-free zone;
acceptable risk zone;
critical risk zone;
zone of catastrophic risk.
The criteria for attributing SKhZ to a particular risk area are established by the owner depending on the profitability of a certain line of business development in this SKhZ, on the actual size of resources, and also on the personality of the owner himself.
In the process of analyzing the structure of business development, curve risk, on which zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks are distinguished (Fig. 2).
Rice. 2.
Profit Revenue Net calculated calculated capital
In addition, it is necessary to highlight the methodology for analyzing and assessing the level of a particular risk, determine the level of errors and the permissible limits of deviations. Within a given SHZ, it is important to determine the ability to manage the identified risks. Since the strategic planning of the development of an enterprise takes into account the possibility of its functioning in several SHZs at the same time, it is necessary to determine the total amount of risk that may arise in the process of implementing the chosen basic strategy for the development of the enterprise.
It should be noted that for domestic enterprises, the risks of the immediate business environment are very significant. This is due to the following main reasons: firstly, the rather strong influence of state policy on the development of any sector of the national economy; secondly, the undeveloped nature of market relations and the weakness of their legal regulation.
Currently, industry risks in our country are manifested mainly in the absence of specific programs for the strategic development of industries that reflect the priorities of the state economic policy. The analysis of the occurrence of possible industry risks involves the study of the following main factors over a selected period of time:
analysis of the dynamics of the main technical and economic indicators of the development of enterprises in the industry, as well as enterprises of related industries;
analysis of the competition of enterprises in the industry;
analysis of specific factors characterizing the functioning and development of enterprises in this industry;
analysis of the market for the products of this industry and the prospects for its development;
analysis of the existing system of state regulation of the economy and the availability of government orders;
analysis of sustainability indicators of enterprises in the industry in comparison with enterprises of related industries;
analysis of indicators of scientific and technological progress for enterprises of related industries.
Analysis of a possible manifestation risks of intra-industry competition is performed by an expert by comparing the coefficients for a predetermined number of indicators. The strategic analysis of a particular enterprise in our country becomes incredibly important in view of ensuring its economic security. EMERCOM of Russia together with Gosgortekhnadzor of the Russian Federation are developing a declaration industrial safety. This declaration assumes the obligatory creation of a risk management system for any enterprise. Such developments once again confirm the special specifics of the development of domestic enterprises and the rather high degree of risk of business development in Russia. In this regard, a strategic analysis of risks arising from the operation and development of an enterprise is an important component (element) of developing a strategy for its development.
It should be noted that the above factors are subject to significant changes, the nature of which can only be assessed with a certain degree of probability at the stage of strategic planning. It is this uncertainty of changing factors that forms the industry risk. In table. 1 shows the main types of this risk, which correspond to the five forces of competition according to M. Porter. For each of the types of risks listed in the table, an assessment of its level for a particular enterprise in the context of the implementation of strategies should be made.
Table 1 The main types of risk of the "five forces of competition according to M. Porter"
|
Forces of competition according to M. Porter |
Name of types of risk |
|
1. Penetration new competitors |
|
|
2. The threat of the appearance of substitute goods on the market |
|
|
3. Opportunities buyers |
|
|
4. Opportunities suppliers |
|
|
5. Competition between enterprises that have already established themselves in the market. |
|
Analysis of risks arising in the process of intra-industry competition among enterprises can be carried out according to the criteria given in Table 2.
Table 2 Competition Risk Analysis
|
Forms of near-environment risks |
Probability of manifestation |
|
|
|
2. The risk of reducing the price of products sold |
|
|
It is expedient to evaluate the probability of manifestation of one or another type of competition risk on the basis of either the method of expert assessments or the method of statistical observations. In some cases, the method of assessing the probability of risks based on the personal experience of the top management of the enterprise can be used.
Analysis and risk assessment of an individual enterprise or business can be carried out according to the following scheme.
I stage. Analysis and assessment of the level of identified risks and identification of external and internal factors affecting the result that can be obtained as a result of the implementation of the enterprise development strategy.
II stage. Identification and analysis of indicators characterizing the level of influence of external and internal factors selected at the previous stage.
stage. Selection of the optimal number of indicators that can be used to track the dynamics of the influence of risk factors on the planned result.
stage. The choice of control indicators and the establishment of normative limits for changing these indicators in order to achieve the optimally acceptable risk size.
V stage. Determination of the risk analysis method (building models, expert evaluation, mathematical methods for studying statistical data, choosing an analogue).
VI stage. Development of a risk management system at the enterprise and identification of ways to optimize them.
Strategic risk analysis of an enterprise involves consideration of all types of activities and the entire range of products and services from the following positions:
market segmentation;
studying the relationship and interdependence of one type of activity or type of products (services) produced from another;
market attractiveness;
competitive strength of the enterprise.
The study of individual market segments makes it possible to assess and predict the possibility of risks arising from consumers of the company's products (services).
The study of risks arising from the impact of changes in production volumes and sales of one product on the volume of output and production cost of another product is necessary to justify and select methods for the production of strategically promising and cost-effective types of products.
An analysis of the attractiveness of the market is necessary to reduce in the long term losses from the development of the production of goods sold in unattractive and unpromising markets.
An analysis of the competitive strength of an enterprise in terms of the assortment portfolio makes it possible to determine the acceptable risk limits for each enterprise.
